Missile Defense System Defenses: Does the Saudi shield Work?:
Much interest and speculation has taken place about the effectiveness of missile defense system in recent times. Whether the theatre of war is in Arabia, Syria, or East Asia- many questions are being asked regarding how much protection a missile shield truly gives. The research focuses on the plight of the Saudi Arabia as Yemen launched scuds are being intercepted by the Saudi Military. The findings clearly show that the Patriot Missile defense System installed in Saudi Arabia is failing to stop the incoming scuds; however, the reasons for such shortcomings are most likely due to the fact that the Saudi Military has not fully upgraded, and is composed of an outdated legacy shield which must be replaced with the current PAC-3
Saudi Arabia has been under siege from missile strikes coming from Yemeni rebels in recent months. One of the primary concerns is whether or not the U.S. produced Patriot Missile Defense System is going to be able to adequately protect the people of Saudi Arabia. According to Al-Arabiya (2018), “Saudi forces intercepted seven Yemeni rebel missiles on Sunday, including over the capital Riyadh, in a deadly escalation on the eve of the third anniversary of the Saudi-led coalition's intervention in Yemen. The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels fired three missiles at Riyadh and four others at the southern cities of Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, with the coalition saying they all targeted populated areas. The shrapnel fell on a residential house causing the death of a resident and injury of two others. Saudi forces intercepted seven Yemeni rebel missiles on Sunday, including over the capital Riyadh. ‘The firing of multiple ballistic missiles towards cities is a serious development,’ Arab Coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said. Witnesses confirmed to Al Arabiya loud explosions and bright flashes in the sky. Since November, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militias have fired multiple missiles into Saudi Arabia, all of which Saudi forces have intercepted. Footage sent to Al-Arabiya shows moment defense missiles from Saudi Patriot batteries fired to intercept apparent Houthi missile over Riyadh” (i & ii). https://twitter.com/hashtag/Houthi?src=hash
Analysis of footage of the interceptions which was uploaded to Social Media has led some to conclude that the Saudi Missile defenses are defective, “Saudi Arabia has claimed to have intercepted seven ballistic missiles fired by Houthi forces from Yemen, using the U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot missile defense system. However, footage has emerged suggesting that at least two of the Patriot Missiles failed. Videos posted to social media show one exploding in midair and another performing an abrupt U-turn before slamming into the ground” (iii). The footage in question is available at the following link:
Mainstream media has reported that the Yemeni Houthi Rebels launched their Scud Missile Burkan-2H type at the capital of Saudi Arabia, and that it was taken out by a Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) over the Riyadh Airport late last year; but, some have argued that the Scud’s warhead was not actually intercepted by the four Patriot Missiles; in fact, they believe that the warhead flew passed the Patriots. No one at King Khalid International Airport was harmed due to the fact that the Scud crumbled and rained debris over the airport’s runway as its warhead missed the airport’s terminal, and the warhead missed the Houthi’s target by flying beyond the airport.[1][2][3][4] The PAC-3 Missile Defense System intercepts incoming missiles by slamming into them with kinetic force, but the four Patriots which the Saudis launched in order to defend the airport from the Houthi launched Scud were recorded in a video, with the sound of aerial explosions which indicate that they set up a shrapnel cloud instead of using hit-to-kill technology; the video can be seen in this link: (
).[5]Saddam’s old Gulf War Era Scuds were stretched and made lighter in order to give his regime increased striking range, and this augmentation made those Scuds orbit in High Altitude Flight; consequently, they were unable to re-enter the atmosphere nose-down, and thus would have a belly landing trajectory, which would make the warhead separate from the crumbling missile. During 1991, the US Coalition’s Patriot System would strike the slower, larger, and flaming Scud debris instead of the Scud’s smaller, fast falling warhead; hence, Saddam’s engineers inadvertently invented Scud types which were able to fake-out the now Legacy Patriot Missile System. Today, the Houthi Rebels launch the Burkan-2 Scud Missile type, which has an even longer range than Saddam’s versions, and also disintegrate during re-entry. The Houthi’s Scud technology utilizes a shuttlecock warhead, which means that the warhead is intended and designed to break away from the missile body during re-entry, and strikes with enhanced precision well away from where the crumbled missile body would land. The Burkan-2 Scud is very light weight and mobile; in-fact, it can be transported and launched from a tracker-trailer.[6][9] The modern US Missile Defense System is multi-layered and much more sophisticated that anything which existed during the Gulf War. US Missile Defense designers have learned from historical mistakes and have designed a new system which is designed to hit Scud warheads even if they detach from the Scud body. The Patriot-3 works together with the higher altitude THAAD system, and this multi-layered system’s tracking, information sharing, projectile interpretation, and hit-to-kill interception technology is an emerging science the likes of which has not yet been seen in modern warfare, has been invented, and is ready for deployment around the Globe.[7][8] In regards to the Patriots which were launched in order to protect Riyadh’s airport, it is not publicly known if the PAC-3 system was used, or if an outdated version was used; however, the public has been informed that the PAC3s were purchased by Saudi Arabia, but they were not fully deployed by the time the airport was targeted by the Houthi Rebels. Even if the Saudis had installed the new PAC3 System into the airport’s terminals, it is unlikely that the crew would have been adequately trained in terms of using the PAC-3’s advanced tracking and interception platform.[9] In general, “Saudi Arabia and the UAE, meanwhile, are fielding Patriot PAC-2,… designed mainly to intercept aircraft but also capable of downing ballistic missiles. PAC-3 is a smaller, shorter range version of the Patriot optimized for ballistic missile defense.[10]
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has used the Raytheon made PAC-2s in order to create fragmentation blasts in order to attempt intercepts of rebel missiles originating from Yemen. The more advanced PAC-3 series from Lockheed Martin have not been used nearly as much by Saudi Arabia in order to defend themselves from missile strikes; Lockheed Martin’s VP Timothy Cahill has explained, that the new PAC-3 series is simply not fully deployed in Saudi Arabia, and the reason that the Saudis are largely utilizing the older PAC-2s is simply because those are the ones currently ready and deployed in Arabia, “It’s more a matter of shooting what you have out in the field. You use what you have.”[11]
The US Congress was notified regarding the sale of the PAC-3s to Saudi Arabia at a purchasing price of $5.4 billion USD. The purchase and complete installation of the new PAC-3 missile defense system into Saudi Arabia takes sixty (60) months before the Saudi Arabian military could effectively use the planned newly installed PAC-3s in order to protect their country from missile strikes.[12] Some PAC-3s were being installed in Saudi Arabia during the year of 2014, but this installation was small and tentative during that time, and had costed them $1.7 billion USD as a payment to Raytheon; however, the government of Saudi Arabia eventually decided to throw down the larger purchase for PAC-3 installation at the later cost of $5.4 billion USD (at least $7 billion in total). Saudi Arabia expressed during a meeting at Camp David that they needed their missile defenses to utilize state of the art sensory and computer networks in order to protect itself from possible incoming missile strikes. Saudi Arabia has wanted to upgrade their missile defenses holistically; by purchasing and integrating the more advanced PAC-3s with new THAAD missile defense system, and the sweeping communication technology needed in order to link the entire shield together.[13]According to Andrea Shalal (2015), “Saudi Arabia signed an agreement last week with the U.S. government for the purchase of 320 more Patriot PAC-3 missiles built by Lockheed Martin Corp, and may accelerate its plans to buy the longer-range THAAD system, a senior Lockheed official told Reuters this week. The PAC-3 sale is part of a larger possible deal valued at $5.4 billion for a total of 600 PAC-3 missiles that was approved by the U.S. government in July.”[14] The DSCA states that, Saudi Arabia is unable to keep up its PAC-2 missile defense system because the US DoD doesn’t have the old parts for that outdated legacy system on hand much of the time.[15] ] According to MDAA, “Most recently, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $130.3 million foreign military sales contract for PAC-3 anti-ballistic missile systems. The contract will provide for 35 missile segment enhancements, 100 launcher modifications kits, parts, software, and missile round trainers.”[16]
UAE military planners appear to be re-deploying their Yemen based surface-to-air missile systems. The PAC-3 series is designed with canisters which can launch four times more missiles than the old legacy Patriot system which the UAE previously been using to intercept Scuds and other weapons coming from the Yemeni rebels.[17] According to the US Missile Defense Agency, “(PAC)-3 Works with THAAD to provide an integrated, overlapping defense against missile threats. Jointly, these systems engage the threat by forming a multi-tier theater defense against adversary missile threats using peer-to-peer engagement coordination, early warning track data, and battle management situational awareness. Contributes to the entire system’s situational awareness by transmitting precision cueing data to other theater elements. Patriot has added Upper-Tier Debris Mitigation capability to mitigate the excessive radar load and potential missile waste caused by debris from upper-tier intercepts.”[18]
References:
[i.]Al-Arabiya. (March 26, 2018).Retrieved from Egyptian killed, two wounded by shrapnel of Houthi missiles targeting Riyadh,
[ii.]Al-Arabiya. (March 26, 2018). Saudi forces intercept 7 Houthi missiles, including one over Riyadh. Retrieved from https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2018/03/26/Saudi-Arabia-intercepts-missile-above-northeast-Riyadh.html
[iii.]News Week. David Brennan, Newsweek (March 26, 2018). Retrieved from https://www.yahoo.com/news/did-u-made-saudi-missile-111354442.html
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[1] Task & Purpose. Report: US-Made Missile Defense System Failed 5 Separate Times During
Yemeni Rebel Attack On Saudi Arabia. By Jared Keller. On December 5, 2017. https://taskandpurpose.com/saudi-arabia-patriot-missile-defense/
[2]Foundation for Defense of Democracies. U.S. Backs Saudi Claim about Iranian Missile Support
to Yemeni Rebels. Behnam Ben Taleblu, Alexandra N. Gutowski. 9th November 2017.http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/behnam-ben-taleblu-us-backs-saudi-claim-about-iranian-missile-support-to-yemeni-rebels/
[3]The Drive. Missiles, Purges, And A Suspicious Crash: A Crazy Weekend in The Saudi
Kingdom- King Salman aims to ensure that his son will wear the crown via a weekend full of power consolidation plays. By Tyler Rogoway. November 5, 2017. http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/15778/missiles-purges-and-a-suspicious-crash-a-crazy-weekend-in-the-saudi-kingdom
[4]War is Boring. Making Sense of the Missile Mess in Yemen. Where do the Houthis' rockets
come from? Making Sense of the Missile Mess in Yemen. November 9, 2017 Tom Cooper. https://warisboring.com/making-sense-of-the-missile-mess-in-yemen/
[5]Riyadh Attack: Houthis Fire Missiles at Saudi Arabia | November 4th 2017 King Khalid
Airport. IKnowBro. Published on Nov 4, 2017.
[6]The National Interest. Why the Patriot Missile Might Fail America's Military. REUTERS/Kim
Kyung-Hoon. America risks entering into a war with the mistaken belief that it has a shield against the enemy’s missiles when all it has is a sieve. Joseph Cirincione. December 6, 2017. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-the-patriot-missile-might-fail-americas-military-23530
[7]Missile Defense Advocacy. Patriot Missile Defense System. December 1,
[8]Jane’s. Yemeni rebels enhance ballistic missile campaign. Yemen-based rebels have launched
numerous ballistic missile attacks against Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of conflict in 2015. By Jeremy Binnie. 2017.http://www.janes.com/images/assets/330/72330/Yemeni_rebels_enhance_ballistic_missile_campaign.pdf
[9]Defense One. Did the Saudis Shoot Down a Houthi Missile on Nov. 4? It Doesn’t Much
Matter. A Patriot missile is fired on Nov. 8, 2017, by German soldiers assigned to Surface Air and Missile Defense Wing 1 at the NATO Missile Firing Installation, in Chania, Greece. By Rebeccah Heinrichs Senior fellow at Hudson Institute Read bio. December 11, 2017. http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/12/did-saudis-shoot-down-houthi-missile/144451/
[10]Popular Mechanics. The Quiet Missile War You’re Not Hearing About: It's going on right
now. By Kyle Mizokami. Nov 15, 2017. http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a13734124/the-quiet-missile-war-youre-not-hearing-about/
[11]Defense News. Raytheon: Arab-operated Patriots intercepted over 100 tactical ballistic missiles
since 2015. By: Barbara Opall-Rome. November 14, 2017. https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/dubai-air-show/2017/11/14/raytheon-saudi-based-patriots-intercepted-over-100-tbms-since-2015/
[12]Defense Security Cooperation Agency. Jul 29,
[13]Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. Saudi Arabia. January 9, 2018.
http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/intl-cooperation/saudi-arabia/
[14]Reuters. October 14, 2015 / 3:55 PM / 2 years ago. Saudi Arabia signs deal for 320 PAC-3
missiles – Lockheed. By: Andrea Shalal. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-saudi-lockheed/saudi-arabia-signs-deal-for-320-pac-3-missiles-lockheed-idUSL1N12E20K20151014
[15]Military.com. 30 Jul 2015. Saudi Arabia Requests $5.4 Billion Worth of PAC-3 Missiles.
[16]Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. Saudi Arabia. January 9, 2018.
http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/intl-cooperation/saudi-arabia/
[17]Bellingcat. UAE Relocates SAMs in Yemen. January 25, 2017.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/01/25/uae-relocates-sams-yemen/
[18]Missile Defense Agency. PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3).