After a couple of rough weeks, with news an rumours of harsher regulation on cryptocurrencies and ICOs coming from China, South Korea and India, we found ourselves in the middle of a bunch of really great news for the market. And it shows.
After seeing how bitcoin hit a low point of nearly 6,000.00 USD/BTC, we've seen it come back to over 8,000.00 USD/BTC at the moment of writing this post.
First, we had the hearings in the US Senate where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) basically expresed how they feel that the current regulation is more than enough to protect investors, stopping any fear of new regulation that might cripple in any way the use of cryptocurrencies in one of it's bigger (if not the biggest) markets of the world.
Then we had the news coming from Europe with the European Central Bank telling that it's not very high on their to-do list to issue a new tighter regulation on crypto either.
Besides, a couple of less important but still very positive news have added some of the needed trust to the market to help it go up around 25 to 30% up in just a couple of days. I'm talking about Singapore's PM dismissing the possibility of banning cryptocurrencies trading in that country and also Coinbase's commitment to introduce (finally) SegWit compatibility, which will help to reduce transaction's times and fees in one of the biggest exchanges in the world.
All this has given BTC in particular (and the crypto market in general) the needed boost to overcome that low point and coming back to a value that gives it a better chance to start climbing back to where it two months ago. Now we should start looking at the news that are going to give us confirmation if this is the actual end of this crash or if new announcements and developments are going to take it down.
What do you think we should be looking at in the next couple of days/weeks to predict in which direction the market is going to go?
Please share your thoughts
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"Cash is King", always. You think today is bad, imagine what will happen when the bond and FX markets start selling off and credit and liquidity really really dry up. Add in a long hot dry summer, and earthquake or whatever and....
I remain calm by hodling; also, I'm glad to see the GOT pic above, because I'd like to share this.
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I suspect a classic W bottom, up a bit then back down before another moonshot. But who knows?
Regarding regulation, it's not likely. The total amount of global wealth in cryptos is tiny. Insignificant. The entire crypto space could disappear and nobody would blink an eye. The entire market cap of cryptos equals reaches the value of the average Fortune 500 company.
Central banks have to deal with propping up worthless fiat, fixing bloated balance sheets, and calming petty political roils without causing a massive, global financial panic.
Most governments don't understand what this stuff is, let alone how to regulate it. The few that banned it didn't really ban it.
Meanwhile, regulators can't keep up with the pace of innovation. It's way too much effort for such a small market.
I don't see how anything has changed in the crypto space fundamentally. Do you?
I think its too early to think anything yet. Its just the second green day after all this bloodshed. Let's wait for market to stabilize. Continued green for some more days will give more assurance, till then I'm not buying in.
Same tactic here :) Let's hope that BCASH won't rise any more :))
agreed seems like the market has done this a few times over the last 2 weeks. if it stays green for more then a few days then see we some green in the 7 day % maybe then ill believe were out of the woods. for now anyways.
Did you even watch the Senate meeting? This is completely incorrect. Not only did I watch the entire hearing but provided a full synopsis on my blog. Both the CFTC and SEC agree that greater regulation is required in order to protect investors; however, both are currently limited in what they can do to regulate the market. The SEC can ensure ICOs are registered and compliant with securities laws and the CFTC can educate the public and take civil action against fraud in the commodities aspects of the market. Both are set to reconvene with the Senate after discussing what additional regulatory powers they require. The Senate also expressed numerous concerns and a desire to seek further regulation. The hearing did not result in new regulations as of yet; however, the overall sentiment was that more had to be done. Greater regulation that protects investors is actually a good thing for helping cryptocurrencies make it available to the masses and stabilize its volatility; however, you saying that both the CFTC and SEC agreed that nothing more should be done is completely inaccurate.
Good read, I honestly don't think people should worry. We are in the early stages of cryptcurrency still, not many people know about it and the people that know about it only know about bitcoin. A stat i heard about the other day, only 65% of people know or have heard about bitcoin, about 5% actually own it. Bitcoin is the house hold name. I would expect once it gets popular it will go up to atleast 50k by the end of the year. I do however strongly believe bitcoin is not our solution to a world wide currency, its to unstable and volatile at the moment, and the lightning network is not the solution.
From the news which i got. India won't ban cryptocurrencies but will add taxes for the income generated threw it. Don't know about other countries.
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Hi Johan, great post, we are certainly on the same wavelength.
Market sentiment does indeed seem to be shifting!
I was wondering if anyone could share what the significance of the "vincentb" tag is?
Look for Vincent Briatore on YouTube. He started this trend for his follower to support each other in this platform
Thanks, will check it out now!
Let's hope it's not a dead cat pounce, or it will fall even harder. I don't think we can have a breath of fresh air right now
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I am not selling HODL
Exactly. Always HODL
Considering the momentum gained thus far, I don't think that regulation can stop it. There might not be enough popular sentiment to unseat Congressmen who see crypto as a threat yet, but I have a fair amount of confidence that once the Millennials find their feet, hands and voice, it won't matter.
Crypto is here to stay. The only thing that matters now is the rate of adoption.
regulation can't stop it - but it can definitely slow the momentum and change the market sentiment.
Well, it will take a while to get back to ~15k, but at least bloodbath is over.
Nice post....
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Thanks for putting this together. There is no reason to worry except for a global conflict resulting in shutting down the internet. Otherwise we're good to enjoy our collective growing process and have a nice time!
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Haha, feels like we are a little in limbo atm. No all the whales buying back into BTC positions just yet
I think this is just a green spike in the red downtrend :)
According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.
Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.
At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.
The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.
The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.
the market nowadays is quite unpredictable. giving any opinion will be hitting an arrow in the air..it is the time when one should just fasten their belts and hold their breaths and watch the and actbcarefully
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I hope that we should be patient, and you are right opinion. thanks a lot of