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RE: Which of these unusual events was the most improbable?

in #unusual6 years ago

Exactly! For most of these, you can conduct similar statistical analyses that will lead you to have a confirmation bias or survivorship bias. Many events happen over and over again, and when they happen in just that way that seems too lucky, they are written down and judged forever in isolation.

But for the Laura Buxton x2 case, each coincidence would add a whole new exponential statistical difficulty. Survivorship bias suffers tremendously under the load of this coincidence. People who share the same name, general location, age, etc., plus localised events such as the pets and personality choices, would make it so that this is an almost super-natural case of coincidence.

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Good point re: the survivorship bias. That particular story is so unusual and unlikely to occur, any way you analyze it.