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RE: Common Mistakes in Forecasting

in #trading7 years ago (edited)

No, in the case of a hyperinflation the stock market would skyrocket, but that would be just an illusion of wealth since the currency would fall quicker than the stock market rising. Thus your true pruchasing would would go down no matter what you would do (except if you'd find a market that would go up quicker than the fiat would fall, perhaps cryptos).

It would be an illusion of wealth. In fact right now, most of the stock market growth is inflation, the net growth may be negative.

It's not in the USA since the USD is a global reserve currency, but in other countries the stock market growth is effectively smaller than the true inflation rate. So most people are losing money day in day out.

I am talking about BUY & HOLD strategies. Like buying an index.

Of course that is the basic expectanc of the stock market, but with some careful analysis it might be possible to outperform that with either good stock picks or higher frequency trading of the index with leverage.

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Interesting thoughts. Thank you.