Bullish on EVs as a whole, yet bearish on Tesla as are you.
Wishing Musk success (I think he truly is a thought leader), however I just do not see his debt-fueled science experiments at Tesla extending past the next bear market / recession. Especially considering that autos are an extremely capital intensive industry and the other auto giants have yet to really enter the EV market in full force.
That dynamic has changed (read the headlines about nations banning fossil fuel vehicles by 2030), no bueno for Tesla as their tax subsidies and debt buyers dry up. On the other hand, rare earth metals to the moon!
On a different note, I cannot wrap my head around the fact that everyone is so stoked on EVs. Electric production burns coal, so just another societal Band-Aid for a problem we ought to actually solve. Too bad Stanley Meyer's research does not see light of day thanks to lobbyists and real money being threatened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Meyer%27s_water_fuel_cell
EVs are fueld by coal because your government is lagging soo far behind and they dont bother to take 98% of scientists seriously.
This is by the way another thing Tesla is actually doing something about (solar energy).
Here in Norway more or less all electricity is clean and comes from water or wind.
I'm proudly and happily driving my Tesla and I am really encouraged by What Tesla has accomplished as a small car manufacturer.
Sure they have their issues, But so does all other car companies when launching new cars.
Elon for President! :)
@cryptopet you are very fortunate to live in Norway, my friend. It's not that our government is lagging behind here, it is that they are making too much money on the energy monopoly gravy train!! (the lagging IMO is from public awareness on the issue)
I agree, have to root for the smaller guys (like Tesla) in today's world. I will be watching from the sidelines from an investing perspective, however. Rare earth metals seem like the winner no matter which company emerges as the major in EV.
That´s kind of what I mean by lagging behind. They still choose to capitalize on the fossil fuels, instead of putting huge investments into renewable so that the transition into green energy could go faster.
I think that if you look at where most of the EVs are purchased and used in the USA they aren't powered by coal. They may still be powered by fossil fuels, and certainly, some are coal based electricity but fewer are than you realize.
And, for those that are powered by coal-generated electricity, those number of coal plants are generally reducing monthly.
Agree to disagree here. EV is still backed by electricity produced by coal for the time being. However, the industry is increasingly looking to natural gas because of the depressed prices of oil (and also because the US has vast natural gas / oil reserves). This transition to natural gas is what is reducing coal demand, not solar. And natural gas is just another fossil fuel (to my point of this not being a true solution yet, unlike Stanley Meyer's fuel cell idea). While I agree with you all here backing solar power (it's clearly a much better option) it is not where our power comes from just yet. Solar does not have the scalability (or public support) to meet industrial needs just yet (although that is a very dynamic area of the market).
I find the most interesting thing about Tesla (and other forward trading companies that do not have profits and large debts) is that it is a fantastic company as it relates to innovation, technology, and pushing society forward. However, the one thing I always try to keep in mind is that a great company and a great stock are two different things. It sure appears reasonable to believe that long Tesla is a crowded trade, and short Tesla seems to have a growing camp. So why not just avoid it? Not an uncrowded, low-risk, high-reward setup which is all I find worthy of investment.
It's my opinion that Tesla stock is on the chopping block should the overall market begin to correct. I don't necessarily agree that the Model 3 sales will push stock down, it'll be the credit default cycle rolling over. Doesn't mean I am in the camp of active shorters, just means I am not interested either way in the stock. I Like the company, but not the stock and all I suggest is that the die-hard Tesla bulls reflect on the fact that major auto makers are just now looking to enter the market in a big way since all major governments are creating deadlines for fossil-fuel based cars, creating a wave of competition. Tesla may emerge as the best, but either way energy is too political an investing arena for me, and autos are becoming more intertwined with energy politics as more legislation emerges. Enjoying the banter in this thread, best to all!
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=electricity_in_the_united_states
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.COAL.ZS
https://www.iea.org/topics/coal/
I just listened to a very interesting episode of the podcast "Science vs". Check out the episode "100% Renewable Energy - Can we do it?"
It talks to scientists about whether or not the US could go 100% Renewable over the next couple of decades.
Some very interesting inputs on the debate.
I'll check it out! Thanks for the recommendation @cryptopet
Agreed. Even Daimler and BMW have been slow to concede that the ICE technology is long past its use by date. VW dragged in by Dieselgate; Even worse, Mazda has no plans for EV's. and Toyota still promotes petrol hybrids!!