What would be the market reaction?
Guessing Game:
- Gold trades down around 2% sometime, settles around 1% down.
- US equities up less than 1%. Similar moves in developed markets.
- Bond yields and the USD mostly unchanged.
- EM currencies slightly to somewhat weaker around the ME region and unchanged elsewhere.
- EM equity markets in the ME region will have a variance of risers and fallers while other EM markets a bit better.
- No crypto effect.
1 day guessing game..
In retrospect:
Other than Gold the call is ok. As for Gold, perhaps the risk perception trade is stronger than it seems. If so, Gold will break 1377. To watch..