Following my encounter of an interesting post by @rickie on Phases of the Moon of which one of the moon phases is the FULL MOON, I chanced upon a recent study of how full moons and super moons increase motorcycle fatalities.
There are 8 distinct phases of the lunar cycle according to @rickie's post; some of which include the New Moon, Crescent Phases, Full Moon, Gibbous Phases, First and Last quarters, etc.
The brightness of the moon when "full" or "super" may be so lovely at night and quite inviting for motorists and cyclists who enjoy nightlife, but the report of a new study shows that a moonlit voyage may be accompanied with deadly consequences.
Data and statistics gathered about nighttime motorcycle crashes between 1975 and 2014 in the United States, indicates that motorcyclists were more likely to die in road crashes on full moon nights. Even more appalling is the realization from research studies that riders were even more likely to die on ‘supermoon’ nights that on the nights of weeks before and after stunning lunar events.
Dr. Donald Redelmeier, the lead study author and a professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, Canada, says;
"Our study suggests that extra care is needed when riding a motorcycle under a full moon."
The research which was published in the Christmas Journal of The BMJ on the 11th of December, 2017 was a stunning article publication, especially for the medical journal, known for very serious medical related researches.
The Research and Study
Dr. Donald Redelmeier speaking further on the research says that about 5,000 people die of motorcycle crashes every year in the United States. The figure means that for every road-traffic casualty, one is motorcycle related.
Speaking to Live Science, Dr. Donald Redelmeier said;
"The average ride on a motorcycle is more dangerous than a drunk driver with no seatbelt traveling the same distance."
He however, mentioned the fact that it was difficult to ascertain the level of distractions that often lead to fatal motorcycle accidents. Dr. Redelmeier noted that it was even difficult for motorcyclists who survive accidents to recall what happened in the moments leading up to the accident.
Full moons and Supermoons, which can be 30 percent brighter than the regular full moon, are measurable variables that can distract motorcyclists, because they are big and lustrous.
As part of the studies and investigations, the research scientists went through data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the U.S and found all motorcycle fatalities that occurred between 4pm and 8am (local time) over a 40 year period. This 40 year period included 494 full moons and 65 supermoons.
The analysis showed that about 9.1 motorcyclists died on nights with full moons, as compared to about 8.6 motorcyclists who died on nights without full moons. The increase in 5 percent on nights with full moon, amounts to an additional 226 fatal crashes over the study period, suggesting that for every two nights of full moon, there was one additional fatal accident.
To streamline analysis, the research team compared the fatalities on full moon and super moon nights with those that occurred on nights one week before and after each full moon occurrence.
From the research, about 13,000 people died in motorcycle crashes during the 494 full moon nights and 988 control nights. The average age of these motorcyclists were about 32 years of age. They tended to be males, riding without a helmet, in rural areas, and involved in head-on frontal collisions.
A larger fatality risk was even greater on nights of supermoons. On supermoon nights, a total of 703 fatalities happened amounting to 10.8 motorcycle fatal crashes per night – an addition of two deaths on a night with supermoon. This amounts to an increase of about 22 percent risk of fatality as compared to control nights.
Similar research and studies were carried out on motorcycle crash data obtained from Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom and the trends were similar in those locations.
Limitations of the study
Since the research was observational, it had some limitations. Based on the study, the research scientists did not check for the prevailing weather, moon visibility, if the motorcyclist was at fault for the accident or another driver, or the price of gasoline.
Also, the study failed to show cause and effect, so no firm conclusions can be drawn, as the researchers outlined in the research limitations.
However, the study highlights that fact that distractions no matter the form, even seemingly abstract ones such as a supermoon or fullmoon can be potentially deadly for motorcyclists. Hence, there is need for motorcyclists to take adequate precaution and steps in order to be safe when riding during lunar events.
Redelmeier and co-author of the study, Eldar Shafir, who is a Behavioural Science and Public Policy professor at Princeton Unveristy, wrote that;
"Additional strategies while riding might include wearing a helmet, activating headlights, scanning the road surface for defects, respecting the weather, being wary of left-turning vehicles, obeying traffic laws and forgoing road stunts."
Conclusion
According to the report, this is an observational study, and given the limitations highlighted conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the cause and effect of full moons and supermoons.
For instance, traffic hazards and other road distraction were not taken into account. Factors bothering on weather conditions also were elaborated. Also given the fact that a large data set spanning 40 years, was employed for the study, there could be elements of uncertainty and errors when data was being entered for analysis.
Nevertheless, the study highlighted salient points regarding paying constant and undivided attention when riding and also to take extra precautions during periods of full moon or super moons.
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