The below data is pulled from http://chess-db.com/public/winprob.jsp?elo1=2850&elo2=2779

Player1 is Carlson and Player2 is Karjakin.

Players' information:

Player1 ELO rating: 2850
Player2 ELO rating: 2779

Expected Result (for a single game):

Player 1 wins: 35.19%
Player 2 wins: 15.2%
Draw: 49.6%

ELO rating:

"The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games such as chess. It is named after its creator Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-born American physics professor." - Wikipedia