The dollar has a clear 15 year cycle. Notice on the chart below that in the 1980’s the dollars ascent registered a 76 degree angle. In its next bull run in the late 1990’s, it managed to climb at a 56 degree angle. That’s approximately 70% of the previous achievement. The following bull run (just ended), only managed 70% of the last one in terms of it’s angle of ascent – it achieved just 39 degrees. Why does this matter ? Well it’s indicative of a loss of ‘traction’, a loss of energy if you like. Each successive cycle produces a weaker bounce.
We can also see that there is a pretty consistent angle of descent following each bull (58-60 degrees), taking us to the ultimate low. Using this as a guide, and I know this may sound crazy, but it projects a low of somewhere close to 50 in 2025. Beyond that, we might reasonably expect a shallower angle of ascent for 7 or 8 years taking us to a lower high. How low does it need to go before it dies ? I don’t know, but one thing is certain – PM’s will be a good place to be for many years to come.
Here’s the chart
Nope! But BTC is heading for 50% lower prices from teh current $2755 level. Don't forget to come back and ask me how I "knew" once you see it actually happen. :-)
Say bye bye, suckas!
http://bitcointicker.co
Hi Joe. Are you saying that you don't think the dollar is heading for a big fall over the coming few years ?
Nope! Dollar will be one of two "safe havens." I am "trying to get the dollar to drop just a little lower so I can short teh gold stocks via GDX and add to my current SLV short tho.
Interesting. That would bust the 15 year dollar cycle for the first time. I disagree though - I think overseas holders of the dollar (China, Russia, Asia) are going to continue dropping the dollar for international trade, hastening the dollars demise as reserve currency. The dollars time has come and gone. The US has an exponentially rising national debt, which will make its currency about as popular as Donald Trump at a speed dating event.
Then I will ass-oom that you ass-oom that the stock market bubble will not collapse anytime in the next 12 months. If it does, then things will be exactly the same as in 2008-2009. For a very short period of time teh shortest maturity govmint treasury notes actually paid a negative return back then as Europe, Russia, and Asia moved into dollars and U.S. govmint debt as the assets priced in tehir currencies took them to the woodshed. The most hilarious thing to watch will be the crypto believers though. Sorry, folks, contrary to popular belief some clown named Shitaki did NOT invent the new world currency. The commentary at the steemit boards here are going to get absolutely hilarious to watch. I love nothing more than watching morons getting separated from their $$$. Especially when they have been warned well ahead of time.
LOL :) @DT speed dating comment
well in the last crash everyone fled to the dollar and yes it was lower then it took off, also due to QE 1, QE2, QE3, people fleeing to the dollar and it being 40% of all other currencies , if this happens again which the FED will do, how do you think the dollar index will be effected?