Splinterlands: Land Presale Analysis

The first Splinterlands Land Presale happened this past weekend on November 7th, 2020. This is an analysis of the lottery along with who was able to get land.

@kiokizz has written up a good data-centric summary here: https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterstats/lands-pre-sale-stage-1

Lottery Participants

As you can see from the game API:
https://game-api.splinterlands.com/purchases/land_lottery

There were 50 entries in the lottery for the 27 regions available:

Of the 50 entries:

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Prior to the lottery, I had been carefully keeping track of people and groups that were planning to enter:

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I do not have complete information (there are 4 unknown accounts that I am assuming are individuals) but to the best of my knowledge:

• "Guild adjacent" are individuals closely affiliated with a guild who might offer some of their land to their guildmates.

• "Organization" includes the likes of the Blockchain Founders Fund.

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Also:

• 7 entries were just to increase chances of people who wanted only 1 region (they were boosting their odds)

• 6 entries were additional pools from groups that had already submitted an initial pooled entry

Lottery Results

The list of the 27 winners can be seen here:

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=REGION

And the random results can be verified here (thanks to @yabapmatt for preparing this):

https://splinterlands.com/?p=lottery_verifier

Statistical Odds:

With 1 entry you have 27 / 50 = 54% chance of winning the lottery

With 2 lottery entries you have:

• 28.65% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
• 50.69% chance of getting exactly 1 win
• 20.65% chance of getting exactly 0 wins

--> This means an overall 79.35% chance of getting at least 1 win

With 3 lottery entries you have:

• 14.92% chance of getting exactly 3 wins
• 41.19% chance of getting exactly 2 wins
• 34.85% chance of getting exactly 1 win
• 9.04% chance of getting exactly 0 wins

--> This means an overall 90.96% chance of getting at least 1 win

Of the 27 winners:

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In terms of success rates, which is something @digital-wisdom was particularly interested in:

• No individual got more than 1 winning entry (though some submitted 2 or 3 entries). One pooling group got 2 out of 4, one got 1 out of 3, and one got 0 out of 3.

Presale Results

The list of players who were able to buy individual tracts and regions can be seen here:

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=TRACT

https://game-api.splinterlands.com/players/balance_history?username=$LAND&token_type=PLOT

25 accounts were able to buy 1 tract each (83.33% of the 3 regions worth available). In alphabetical order:

• The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:18.000Z", 21 seconds later (over 7 blocks).

61 accounts were able to buy between 1 and 100 plots each for a total of 500 plots (16.67% of the 3 regions worth available). In order of purchase size and then alphabetical order:

• The first individual tract was purchased at "2020-11-07T16:00:00.000Z" and the last one at "2020-11-07T16:00:21.000Z", 24 seconds later (over 8 blocks)