There will certainly be a fork given scenario 1.

That's the exact threat that inspired the preparations that were undertaken to do exactly that. Tron has a great desire to benefit from the greatest asset of the Steem blockchain, and it's one they cannot purchase: the Steem community.

I disagree with you, and hope Tron realizes that acting in a way the Steem community views as hostile will prevent it's acquisition of that community, which can only happen voluntarily. I point to Sun's comments during the AMA that indicated he did understand the idea of folding Steem into Tron immediately, replacing the token with something derived from TRX, and centralizing governance will prevent Tron from profiting optimally from it's investement in Steemit.