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I agree with your general reasoning, However you also should think about the fact that the market cap doesn't just represent a company it's a currency. The value of a company and a currency are two completely different things.

Will there be 90 % of ICOs that won't produce anything of what the promised? Yes probably and even more.

That's why I look more at projects with long term life spans such as Steem, bitshares and EOS etc