Good info in the post. My concern is if the average user doesn't have much of a chance of earning, adoption will drop quickly. A lot of people are attracted to the stories of $1500 article rewards, but achieving that now is an extreme outlier now with the dilution of rewards.
I think the typical behavior you'll see is that new users try out the platform, maybe stick with it for 5-10 posts, and then decide if it's worth their time or monetary investment. In the past year, earning just a few bucks here and there motivated people to continue with the platform. Most users now are barely seeing 5 cents per post, so I think the both attrition and slowing of new users are huge risks right now.