The post does a good job describing the situation. The rewards payouts are recalibrating to the increase in voting activity, as well as the linear rewards formula. There was an initial spike in payouts right after the HF due to the changes, which caused it to start paying rewards from the rewards pool at a faster rate than they were being replenished. I've been told that it is expected to reach an equilibrium point within a few weeks, at which point the rewards payouts should be adjusted to the new level of voting activity and rewards formula.
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Yes, thank you, but I was asking whether you have insight on whether they will go up or down. :D
At equilibrium, the total amount of rewards paid out should equal the inflation rate. If we assume that prior to the HF they were at equilibrium (which I am not 100% sure we were) then there should be no net change in total reward payouts after things settle.
What will change is the distribution of rewards. It depends on voting behavior, but most likely authors that were receiving high payouts pre-HF will be getting less, and authors that were receiving lower payouts pre-HF will be getting more. It is obviously an oversimplification which doesn't address all the scenarios, but that is the basic idea of how it should work based on the new formula.
If I still maintain dollar upvotes at 100%, I will still be amazed. I never thought I would achieve that. I was quite excited about the dimes I was giving out pre-HF19!