DESIRE TO SUCCEED vs DESIRE TO FAIL
At the time of writing this Blog STEEM is worth approximately $0.07/STEEM with a Market Cap of approximately $17 million.
This is cheap when you look at the technology that sits behind this, but that actually is not the issue.
The real issue is whether there is a desire to want the platform around or not.
When I say "want" I don't mean the users of the platform, I mean the non-users who "do not want" STEEMIT to exist.
What we have here is fight between those that want the platform for its characteristics of being totally decentralised against those that clearly see the platform as threat to their monopoly.
DAN AND NED ARE GENIUSES
I have said this before and I will say it again, Dan and Ned are geniuses for developing STEEMIT but by doing so they have effectively tossed a snowball into the fire of hell.
The problem now is whether by tossing this snowball into the Social Media melting pot there is enough liquidity to make this happen.
When I say liquidity, I simply mean pure CASH..!!
CASH vs NEGATIVE BETS
What we have now got is a situation that is quite precariously balancing between Cash vs Negative Bets and one that has the ability to drive the price down further at these levels.
Let's face it, forget about the number of users, transactions, activity or quality of posts, at $17 million it is petty-cash and loose change to anyone who wanted to take a naked short bet on the price of STEEM.
Now before anyone jumps down my throat with what I am about to say, understand that I have EVERY DESIRE for STEEMIT/STEEM to succeed.
At a mere $17 million a leveraged short position could nail the price to the floor, and this is the real problem.
KILLER APPLICATION
I have been waiting for a platform like STEEMIT to come along for nearly TEN YEARS now and was totally blown away when I first saw it in August of last year.
The reason I was blown away was that for these last ten years I have had a killer application for the right Social Media platform operating within an environment like STEEMIT.
Could you imagine therefore my excitement when I was first introduced to the site.
THE REAL PROBLEM
Now the real problem we have is that if others have also seem the potential as I see it however on the other hand they will do whatever it will take to STOP the site from developing.
This is where users really have to decide what is it you want from STEEMIT?
The ability to share information within a decentralised environment or to make money from blogging?
I would be happy to talk to Dan and Ned and share with them what I believe is the Killer Application for STEEMIT.
If what I think is right then it would be like taking the snowball that was tossed earlier into the Social Media melting pot and replacing it with an avalanche.
Thanks again for reading.
Stephen
Thought-provking stephen!
A couple months ago I had a nightmare, which I posted about .. it was meant to be funny, but it's not funny at all.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@kurtbeil/had-a-nightmare-last-night-ned-dan-me-and-zuckerberg
As I understand it, there is nothing really "acquirable" with STEEM as it is pretty much available to anyone to rip off. STEEMIT.com however might be something that could be sold, along with its userbase, to Facebook .. which would theoretically add it on as an app, at first, like messenger, but later could use STEEM Facebook-wide.
The other way to kill the independent project, is BRAINS! BRAINS! BRAINS! .. they could buy key personnel at STEEMIT Inc., and do something completely new but similar, as long as those individuals signed agreements to abandon STEEM & STEEMIT. This I think would be the best option, because the first would result in a massive backlash by we the current users.
What we the users would see/feel if either of these options were realized .. we would feel as if the bridge crew abandoned ship after setting a course for the sun. :)
looks around nervously
The issue I see is that let's say Dan and Ned have just invented a way to make oil out of fresh and only have a few people who believe them that it will happen. At $17million the big oil companies would leverage a negative bet, nailing the price to the ground and eventually simply turn off their invention..!! Stephen
Ahhh... I see, this is corporate behavior we have seen before, but you know these days this kind of thing could backfire to a tune far greater than $ 17 million - I do not believe they would try to crush, but rather choose to ignore if they are not considering implementing something similar. If it became widely-known that Facebook tried to snuff a technology that benefited users, it would speed the demise of centralized social media.
No, clearly the best thing for them to do is to create something similar, because it will soon be clear to all social media users, everywhere, that this is vastly improved experience, over the old .. like .. like .. like .. to no end. Facebook will respond to the demand .. there is no reason they could not have a rewards based crypto-currency in-place 'and still' retain centralized control of content and user data.
I did a skype interview on this subject last year. It is all about shareholders vs crypto account holders. In essence by gifting rewards to content providers you are robbing the shareholders of their earning potential. On other words this will either go 100% right or 100% wrong and the only way it will go 100% right is if there is a shift in investment strategy by the BIG INSTITUTIONS. Stephen
Ohhhh hey, never thought of that - it sounds as if that would be the case, and if true it would be our greatest protection. However, if they created a chain-based currency, or "rewards token", (only to track upvotes/downvotes/tips), where people who 'held' the currency would have more upvote power than those who had very little AND, no money would be leaving Facebook coffers .. as was the case with their failed Rewards System, that they had attempted .. then there is no barrier.
In-fact, the value of the currency increasing with adoption and usage, as STEEM is supposed to experience, would add to the bottom-line of Facebook, so it is truly a win-win .. more users, happier users, and implementing a cutting edge blockchain-based technology, that adds to their bottom-line .. in a substantial way, with absolutely no risk!?
It is shocking that they have not already put this in motion.
I see things such as Medium and other recent additions to this field as the immediate competition for steemit. Though I've been hearing they wish to keep STEEM for the blockchain, but have been talking about rebranding the STEEMIT website to something else. I've heard this second hand so I don't know how accurate it is.
This is not abandoning Steemit, but simply seperating it more from the blockchain mentally, kind of like busy.org has.
The idea is there is the blockchain and a number of things can be built on top of it. I believe the goal likely here is to break the mental link that immediately associates references to STEEM as being STEEMIT when in fact STEEMIT is just a drop in the pond for what could be done with the STEEM Blockchain.
It bothers me that steemit/busy actually work yet Medium and others seem to be doing very well mostly due to big names and good marketing.
From 2017 roadmap
Hopefully we will pick up our marketing game and develop small collaborative communities aimed at marketing and campaigning for the blockchain. With solid marketing in place we will slice through our competition ^_^
Boom! UP and RS!
Great post. I believe we have more than enough people who want it to succeed. What is stopping us is our inability to cohesively work together and share our ideas effectively. The decentralised blockchain is a strength but also a weakness. We need to develop centralised groups on this decentralised platform to market it and campaign for its success. Steemit is brimming full of talented people. We need to effectively utilise our resources.
I have no doubt that there is a willingness within the Community to make it succeed. It's the willingness outside of Steemit with DEEPER POCKETS that don't want it to succeed is my biggest issue. Stephen
Yeah, now it could be an attractive target for facebook.
For once, A post I agree with.
whats stops you from doing that? You can find ned on steemit.chat
No, I mean personally. Off the platform. Stephen
My husband and I were talking about sabotage within the ranks of Steemit as well.....I really love the idea of Steemit and I hope it can survive the big game.
I am pretty much 100% confident that the ranks within Steemit Inc are as solid as a rock. The problem is outside of Steemit and the desire to disrupt the party that they want to maintain full control of. Nobody likes to see a party next door that is better than theirs..!! Stephen
I read that, we had thought someone comes around buys a bunch of steem and with their SP power starts causing all sorts of trouble, stopping Steemit's growth. But shorting makes more sense..
When there was a lot of flagging recently people were blowing everything out of proportion. Trust me with STEEM at a mere $17mil this is pocket change and just an annoying itch that an intitution could nail to the floor with cash out of the petty cash. They wouldnt go to the trouble of playing around flagging. Stephen
I wasn't talking bout flagging, but that was part of our talks, flagging has never worked well on other systems, more about making the system just for rich controllers promising minnows the moon, some day you could be a whale too...but my husband and I love conspiracy ...
I downvoted this. Its scammy hype and a specious attempt to blame others for steem's own problems. posts like this damage the credibility of the platform IMO.
I guess you really do have a lot to learn..!! I strongly suggest you read this and I will be happy to accept an apology. Stephen
https://steemit.com/steemit/@stephenkendal/steemit-should-we-still-be-carrying-out-experiments-or-should-we-really-be-looking-at-killer-applications
Interesting read, a lot to think about. I was daydreaming today about how I feel that steemit, more so the tech behind it, seems to me to be inevitable. Once you allow users to see that their labor and content should and does have value, how can they ever go back. How can you put the genie back into the bottle. I guess they could try and force it back in with negative bets...but will that ultimately stop the inevitable evolution of social media built around blockchain. Good post would love to read more on the topic.
Thank you I appreciate that. Basically Dan and Ned have possibly created something that is set to totally revolutionise the way Social Media sites distribute wealth from shareholders to content providers. It will either work 100% right or 100% wrong. It is pure genius really if you think about it. I am banking on the hope that more get it than don't. Stephen
It is genius. I think there will be future success, although I am sure some ups and downs a long the way.
"...I am sure some ups and downs a long the way." I could not agree more. STEEM appears to have made a little ground these last couple of days and is around $20mil. I won't be comfortable until it steady above +$500mil and is out of reach of predators. Thanks for the support. Stephen
Agreed. Keep up the good work!
Interesting perspective. Since joining Steem and using it primarily for my posts, I have been banned and almost completely ostracized from Reddit and Voat only because mods express personal opinions that they don't like Steemit. It's so bad now that even if I post to Reddit normally mods will come out of nowhere to downvote my material and flag my posts as "for-profit spam" even when I don't include any links or references to Steemit, on top of that i only make one or two posts a week to Reddit.
Try posting to FB. They blog them all..!! Stephen
Let's hope someone like FB takes the bait and tries to Naked Short, Buy Out, Suppress, or otherwise STOP the Steem blockchain. Try to stop it! Blockchains are like Hydras... they can't really be killed that easily. If someone tried to STOP this one; they would essentially validate the message of the platform and some replacement would either come out of a FORK or another type of Blockchain would jump in the vacuum.
I for one am looking forward to more functionality coming this year. Effectively turning this LiveJournal look alike into something more akin to MySpace. That's what the folks at BUSY.org are doing. And that's what I'm really looking forward to. I don't get caught up in the CURRENT market price of Steem so much as the rest. To me, I'm already getting a benefit from having a publishing platform that doesn't Cost ME. What a concept! And all of this in it's first year! WOW! Go Steem Power!
You miss the point. At $17 mil they could simply keep selling and selling and selling and selling. If there are more selling then buying the price will be nailed to the floor. It has nothing to do with the blockchain. Stephen
I think fiat money will disappear just as did the gold standard and as before made the comodity money and something as steemit will replace facebook. Would we benefit from it? ... that I don.t know
In an nutshell you are about right. Basically Steemit will go up when the ones running the show, and I dont mean Steemit, want Steemit to go up. Stephen
one tactic a "biggie" could use would be to buy into a few whale accounts, and then make the Steemit platform an unpleasant place to contribute to, through a campaign of downvoting content.
@krnel hasn't posted in a week after a campaign of downvoting directed at him; that's a loss to the platform. I also see that @asshole is back, which is going to be a pain in newbie's butts.
I doubt an Institutional Investor would spend much time within the community trying to influence things with down votes. It is to time consuming. They would simply short STEEM and nail it to the floor. Now at <$20 mil this is petty cash to them. Stephen
Easy to outsource
here's an account. now go raise some havoc within these parameters
Lets be realistic here, the Exchange with the Biggest Volume that lets you Trade Steemit is Poloniex. in Poloniex you can NOT SHORT Steem. Steem is almost 1 year old. look at Dash, beening around for 3 years. was in a downtrend for over a year after the "all time high" DUMP from the first BULL Cycle. i will Continue to invest my $$$ monthly as long as i see improvements/upgrades to Steem. which is what they have been doing.
"...in Poloniex you can NOT SHORT Steem." Yes you can. You just keep selling and selling and selling and selling. Its easy to short STEEM. Dont forget this was +$1.60 once and now down to $0.07. That looks pretty much short from where I am sat. Stephen
Selling is NOT Shorting. Steemit price started off around 50cents for public The fact that you buy in at $1.60 is still very HIGH. the DUMP is not over yet, we will see sub 3 cents. right now i am buying in alittle bit each month based on the new updates/roadmap.
Selling is shorting and shorting is selling. They are exactly the same thing when the price is falling. At the moment STEEM is being shorted and my guess is that due to the volume we havn't seen the bottom. If the ones behind it, and there will be more than one, want to take this down they could nail this to the floor at $0.01 if they wanted. It's all about liquidity and which side has the deepest pockets and at the moment the shorters are WINNING..!! Stephen
Resharing @phibetaiota
We find this to be incredibly useful data regarding the overall "Health" of this network. Your contributions are highly valuable to this community.
Please consider connecting with us further, unofficial@me.com
We wish to discuss more about this killer app.
~The Management
Thank you for the kind offer. I will share it with Dan and Ned when the time is right. Stephen
The concept of naked shorts doesn't make sense in crypto. The exponential formula has been t he problem the whole time. Sadly even now in hardfork 17 they still are not changing it. This might be the last chance.