I had a feeling this was going to happen... despite many people oh Youtube pushing the idea that "HF 19 is going to skyrocket the price because of high demand!" Still the price has been steadily coming down... but it makes sense.
My instinct was that the price would originally drop, why? Because I saw just one of my posts that were instantly effected by the heightened payout from the HF 19 update, and if I got one post and I am not even terribly active then I could imagine that there were thousands of people that got an instant boost from the update. And that means, many people will be cashing out selling.
Most people don't have the foresight to see what is coming. Many of us look at things in the immediate and now, so many people grabbed the profits while they could, maybe it was a good idea (I am not sure, because my foresight is no different than others at times.) And I believe it's this mentality that has contributed to the slight drop in Steem lately.
But I Believe We Have A Large Increase Coming, Here's Why.
My prediction on the timeline of events is this:
- People sell right away from seeing the immediate boost from HF 19
- First 7 days of the HF 19 update people are more active on Steemit, naturally because they are seeing higher dollar amounts they are spending more time here. Much more curation going on. One example, my upvotes on my own post are now worth 25c+, that alone gives authors much more incentive to create as well as hold steem power.
- 7+ days after HF 19 update, curation rewards start rolling in. This includes curation rewards from people upvoting their own posts, as well as all the posts they contributed to upvoting. These payouts are going to be much higher than what we were all used to, for both curator and author.
- At this point people think "Woah, Steem is worth much more than what it was worth 2 weeks ago." And they rush to buy to power up.
I do honestly believe that we will see 100k+ sats and find a new bottom within 60 days. Just a hunch.
But Is The Update Already Priced In?
Personally, I don't think so. Sure, some people that have knowledge of upcoming updates bought in and profited from the recent rise. But once updates are applied and everyone sees it, there really is no telling exactly which way it will go when people start FOMO.
The way I see it, Steem is up about 40-50% in the last 30 days, but upvotes are worth much more than 40-50% than they were last week. I don't know the formula but I see how much my own upvotes changed. I don't think the we have seen an increase in Steem price proportional to the increase in how influencial Steem Power makes you now. Just my thoughts.. What do you think?
Very good analysis. I too believe it will rise and bought some steem today to power up. :D
You opened my eyes a little bit more on the Steem matter. If the demand for Steem continues to grow , the price has no other choice but to follow. Thank you for this post @skyfox
Good post. At first it was going down but now if you see the market is going up.
Very interesting post! Your thoughts seams reasonably right to me. I've see Jerry Banfield talking about a rise to $10 within 10 months. I love to see that happen, and I think it will!
I believe it very well may rise to 10$ in that time frame, but it's very hard to say. I see no reason for it not to steadily rise from month to month at this point. Obviously our time spent authoring and curating just increased in value, which means we should see a large uptick in activity here, and I believe we have already seen an increase in activity but not of the magnitude we will see in the next few weeks.
It will go up, it was going down because of the correct period that was on some days ago. In fact all coins was affected.
I am here for the long haul, and the rewards are an added bonus to those of us who are here to share great content. Life isn't always about the bank balance!
Eggzackly! Very well thought out and rational post on the matter. All the chicken littles need to exit stage left.
I am new here but I have been loving steem. I really enjoyed your post and it made sense to me great analysis. I have upvoted and followed you
Nice logics you have posted.
I know a circle of active crypto traders that are not in steemit and some of them have high followers o fb and youtube.
They will come here. Buy steem to powerup and we are flying to $10 in coming weeks.
Awesome stuff
For some reason, every single one of my "recruitment attempts" have failed. At least in my circle of friends. I have explained it to friends and tried to explain why it could be worth their time if they chose to come here. I have a friend in particular that works in Los Angeles in the film industry. He has a very creative mind and writes stories and makes short films, but he is stuck with the mindset that his time is better spent working on projects else where. I think he would find a fan base here. Next time we cross paths, we will be having another talk and maybe I can get him on board.
Personally i cant see this failing and am definitely in it for the long haul. Everybody i tell about it gets excited and immediately signs up. I think we're in the $3 Bitcoin days.
Sorry i can't upvote as my power is at 63% due to sharing the love a lot.
I agree with everything you say. Probably a lot of people cashing out, taking some profits, FOMO, and I think a correction in the entire "altcoin market" is coming. Remember the entire altcoin market seemed to pump at the same time. Almost every chart I look at appears to be over bought and pumped. Many coins seen incredible gains of 100 % - 300% and more. Many of these same coins are starting to correct now and the price will adjust to the market STEEM and SDB too.
Yup I agree, we are in a pull back into a bounce up, some people are trading short term and are pulling back their earnings after the bounce to two, I believe this is simply consolidation as steem shakes off some investors and more long term users fill the gap. I'm using it as a heavy buy up period, im gather all the extra monthly income I have to invest and buying on the down trend, under two is a steal!!:-)
upvotes in sbd rises, but steem price in sdb also. Another issue is voting power, check yours at steemd.com/@username, it decreases with overvoting and it's about 10 votes a day. Full recovery of voting power takes about 5 days if overvoting was done. And, if steem is cheap - load the boat.
HF19 didn't change the total amount of Steem being introduced into the system....it just changed the allocation from whales getting a lot to whales getting almost a lot.
Inflation is around 9 or 10%...so as long as active user growth exceeds that, the price should HODL. User growth is much higher, so I believe price will go up.
Just hodl it.
Some great points you make! I think steem is going to be the social media of the near future. But it also has its down sides! once it becomes very popular you going to get alot if ppl posting random stuff just for upvotes. Its going ti becone a "old boys " club. The only ones going to make money are the big posters and the rest is going to be over come with so much good and bad info that its going to be hard to find good posts
Looking to some serious growth in the coming months!
keep emotions away. good. I follow you.
I'm a beginner on Steemit and I like it. It's a nice invention and what I like most is that it's a decentralized system where the user a getting payed and not stockholders. Nobody owns Steemit except the users, but in away I think it's a little bit of sad that profiting as much as possible seem to be in first line. It's good, but the best thing is that it's a free platform without central control.
omg how the ... you collected 31k people you follow? :D
Some good info for beginners like me. Thanks!
I wonder, would Poloniex problems last few days have any negative impact as well?
are you talking about the stock of the company or the steem that you buy here on the site? sorry Im a newbie here and am trying to learn.
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eh itll go back up eventually
Interesting discussion. I was about to start a similair discussion. Blockchain is here to stay, therefore we shouldn't look at what most people invest in but in the real quality projects, with great teams, management and a great product. Some people are still investing in "an idea". Is an Idea worth 100m+ USD to you? Besides coinmarketcap.com there is: https://www.coincheckup.com The site is my go to place for crypto investment analaysis and indepth coin research.
Good discussion point. Interesting to see I'm not the only one that is thinking about this. The popularity of the cryptos is currently determined by the biggest group of uneducated investors in man kind. It's an interesting world we live in. Does anyone know about: https://www.coincheckup.com This site is really helpful in my coin research. I don't know any other sites with so much indepth analysis.