In the beginning...
Much has been talked about regarding the strength and longevity of Steemit. There are quite a few users who jumped on board early (in June) and disappeared after a post or two or thirty. Regular users are fairly scared of the health of the new technology: many conversations have happened regarding Steem Inflation, the 2-Year Power Down Calendar, Downvoting, and the influence of whales.
What has been helpful and hopeful is that the developers @dan and @ned have been open to new ideas, including the reorganization of Steemit with a non-profit entity and changing rules so that new investors will be attracted to the technology.
All this has happened within the last 6-8 months, which is a speck of time in the life of most corporations. That's two and a half quarters, barely enough to register an earnings report.
Where We are Today
The truth is that Steemit has only begun. The one thing that Steemit has that is rare among cryptocurrencies is a large, hyper-devoted user group. In the sense of timeframes, I think it's important to remember the Innovation Adoption Lifecycle, based on the Roger's Bell Curve for psychological profiles, and how this applies to Steemit's rise.
I first believed that we were all Early Adopters. But after careful consideration, I know now that we are still in the Innovators stage of adoption. Steemit is still in Beta, with a large amount of innovation occurring on a daily basis. We have seen all sorts of different initiatives pop up, most of them by homegrown innovators and not developers like Ned and Dan. We have Curation Guilds, and mobile phone apps, and sites that take the blockchain information and packages it in a way that normal everyday folk can understand.
We are bound to see an influx -- a second wave -- of new users when the new blockchain rules launch at the end of the year. This wave might represent the start of the second stage of the adoption cycle, or the Early Adopters. Following the Early Adopters are the later stages: Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.
If Innovators and Early Adopters are early and late Beta users, than Early Majority could be seen as the first main wave of users after the Beta, Late Majority the time at which adoption is fairly popular and known, and laggards when the most reluctant users jump onto the Steemit ship.
Currently we are only at 2.5% of the potential market for Steemit users. if that represents 100,000 or so users, then that would mean we should expect 540,000 users in the later stage of Beta following the changes at the end of the year. These users will join during the length of time of the Early Adoption phase.
This level of adoption follows the same curve as the rapid adoption of the web:
Web Adoption
and adoption of Instagram!
Instagram Adoption
And even Bitcoin and cryptocompanies!
Bitcoin companies
We are in the start of something wonderful, for certain!
I'm very excited for the future for Steemit, and will continue to join in the conversation on how to help change the way that created content benefits both readers and content creators.
Image credit:
Product adoption curve: FPPT
Hypertext adoption curve : Nielsen Norman Group
Instagram adoption curve: ARK Investment Management LLC
Bitcoin adoption curve graphic: Crypto Hustle
This is a great article and thanks for sharing. Upvoted and shared on Twitter✔ for my followers to read. Now following and looking forward to reading more of your posts. Cheers. Stephen
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
Thank you... will follow back!
Absolutely how I saw it my mind's eye. Thank you for the initial bell curve. After studying it, I felt we more late innovators and then you nailed it with the curve comparisons.
Great article. Thank you so much!
Yes, I feel the same... Late Innovators because we just went through a spurt of innovation, and some of it is quite impactful. The Curie project is one that comes to mind.
sweet
Love it! Great analysis and positive thinking on the future of steemit!
I fall in the visionary -
Keepin'-on steemin'-on
I'm all for enthusiasm, but comparing to Instagram is apples and well, not apples. We live in a visual, narcissistic society. Essentially the opposite of what Steemit currently is. Steemit is still very much a Blogger's forum. THE MASSES DON"T READ. As more visually enticing elements are added, we will see greater adoption. There are other players in the game, no time to waste. I was hoping to hear some announcements from the guys to go with Steemfest
My thesis is not so much to say Steemit is equivalent to Instagram and the others, but that popular technology adoption follows the Roger Bell's curve. A point I am making here... and this is key... is that we are at the beginning Innovator's stage (and not some other stage, like Late Majority). This is key, because it would suggest a really bright future. It would be interesting to see if there is anyone who thinks we are on the downslope part of the curve, and their reasons why believing so.