I think you'd need to filter out people who have been dead for longer than, say, 180 days. Otherwise the churn rate as you are measuring it is guaranteed to go down over time no matter how well Steem performs in the real world
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I picked 90 days so that it represents a quarter and several newbies started joining the network around this time. Old Faithfuls may still be sticking around and are having a rich harvest. If steemit holds the newbies' attention longer then it definitely will grow larger and stronger.