Odd. I had the opposite reading of the market. I don't have much faith in their understanding of steem's internals :) . But you may know something I don't about the wisdom of the market.
Certainly around that time of 12$ SBD there was an air of "SBD to the mooooooon!" attitude. I attribute the spike to just general excitement.
One thing to keep in mind is that even if 5% of steem market cap is hit, it doesn't mean SBD will shut down forever. As the steem supply continues to grow and have value, the ratio will start to go down until it starts to produce again. In effect, the inflation rate of SBD will be rather pinned to STEEMs inflation in some way.
No, but now I understand there is the possibility that the production of SBD's is capped, due to the supply exceeding a certain percentage of debt.
Capping supply while demand stays constant can lead to price jumps, so at least now, while very hypothethical and still very unlikely, I can see some sense to betting the market that way.
Previously I just thought these people were just burning away their money. Personally, I don't hold SBD's, I don't see those as an investment. And besides, SBD's don't contribute to voting power :)
Ah okay, I see how you are thinking now. But few months back, would be really impressive to see them predict the current situation, and even that may not go the way they think.
Agreed on other points.