Since the beginning of the year, the bitcoin never ceases to experience historical highs followed by profits. Starting from $ 997 on January 1, it exceeds $ 3,000 on June 11, falling to $ 2,500 three days later. The surge is so spectacular (+ 250%) that it is legitimate to question a possible speculative bubble. In 2013, after reaching a record high of $ 1,165, the bubble had broken out and virtual currency had plunged into a slump and stagnated around $ 250 for nearly two years. Is this scenario likely to happen again?
No doubt, for Jeffrey Kleintop, chief strategist at Charles Schwab, the bitcoin is "in a bubble with no comparison with those we have known before." On the other hand, billionaire Mark Cuban tweeted "It's a bubble, I do not know when and how much it will be corrected. When everyone boasts of making money easily, there is bubble." In short, it is the application of the adage that "when individuals come on the stock market, the crash is close"
The bitcoin at 3,915 dollars
Not everyone agrees. Goldman Sachs is convinced that the bitcoin could undergo a severe correction before returning to a new historic high. A note from the bank indicates that the correction of the bitcoin is not finished but that this cryptomonnaie should then rebound at least to 3,212 dollars or even reach 3,915 dollars. No magic in this announcement but the result of a technical analysis according to which the bitcoin would have reached in June the top of the fourth wave up. It would therefore be undergoing a correction before returning for the fifth and last wave of rise.
Nicolas Suiffet, head of European research at Trading Central, partially shares Goldman Sachs' analysis. He notes in a note that "from the point of view of graphic and technical analysis, and despite the recent downturn in prices, there is no indication that the bubble that has formed has exploded or is expected to do so over the next few months . In a scenario, the bitcoin could climb to $ 3,570 and in another scenario, more likely, it would fall back to $ 1,860.
Japan is interested in bitcoin
Bobby Lee, CEO and founder of BTC China, does not hesitate to predict a price ranging from $ 5,000 to $ 11,000 by 2020. In previous periods, China accounted for more than 80 percent of world trade in bitcoins. But this year, following the intervention of the Chinese authorities, the share of trade in yuan fell sharply at the beginning of the year. The authorities have relaxed regulation and have again authorized the withdrawals in bitcoin last month which helped to raise the price of the cryptomonte.
The vacuum left by the decline in Chinese demand was partially occupied by Japanese demand. According to Tech Crunch, Japan accounted for barely 1% of the volume of transactions in Bitcoin but now represents more than 6% and, on certain days, 55% of the volume of trade. This renewed interest on the part of the Japanese is explained in particular by the low interest rates practiced (sometimes negative) in the archipelago. As a result, the bitcoin appears as a plausible alternative in the management of a portfolio. In addition, resellers of electronic equipment, such as Bic Camera, now accept digital currencies, which encourages the population to use them.
