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RE: My technical analysis for the markets today [ironic!]

in #steem8 years ago

Thanks for your comment. It's good to know what your doing and have good reasons for your decisions for each of your buys.

Personally, I'm going to be staying out of buying back until I see technical signals...but if you aren't day-trading if it's very difficult not to miss the ideal point for buy-back. E.g., perhaps you wake up in the morning, or come back from a day at work...and look at the markets and everything is perhaps up 30% and you've missed that opportunity.

I don't have much of a view on Aug 1st thing re bitcoin; but personally I don't think it would have much relevance to any of the other coins out there (if anything, I'd tend to think ETH might get a boost if bitcoin had troubles).

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Well, the markets look slightly better today at least (I should say at this exact moment they look at little better....earlier today not so much). Yeah, definitely makes sense for you to hold back until you see your technical signals since you're a day trader.

My only rationale for thinking that major things with Bitcoin will drag down the rest of the cryptos is just that that's how it operated three years ago when I was really into this stuff. Everything rose and fell with Bitcoin. Maybe it's not like that as much now but I still tend to think that Bitcoin still holds at least some of that influence over the rest of them. Only time will tell though I guess.

Yes.. and looking not too bad today. I'm personally expecting this bounce may go up a bit more, and so I bought some BTC,LTC,ETH,EOS,BTS....but just for 'tactical trades' - i would plan to offload again for a bit of profit if i can.

I also bought to more STEEM....but that's just 'cause I seem to have a bad addiction to trying to increase my SP :P. Will be definitely stopping at 250k of it!

Anyway, interesting - so you did a bit of trading in the past? Out of curiosity, is it just small amounts you trade, or something a bit more significant (I.e., meaning that's it quite important to try not to lose too much of it? ;) )

I think you were smart to buy that BTC, etc. and agree that there's likely to be more of a bounce. Okay....after I typed that I just looked at coinmarketcap and yep....everything is definitely higher now than the last time I checked it which was hours ago. So....hopefully you've already managed to sell some and made a bit of a profit :)

Haha...of course you did (bought more steem)! Your SP addiction was one of the first things I learned about you...so not surprising there at all :)

Yes, I did a bit of both trading and mining in the past. I was mainly mining Litecoin on a dedicated mining rig and was buying up Bitcoin and also branching out into a bunch of other stuff. It was all just small amounts, extra cash that I had on hand as well as a couple hundred $ out of my pay cheque every couple weeks. I stopped the dollar cost averaging for around three years, but recently went back into it again (once everything started to boom....wishing I had never stopped....lesson learned I guess).

I think the next small position I'll take is Santiment (SAN), which supposedly just started trading today on Bitfinex today.

Hi @jen8,

Thanks very much for your comment... I did not reply earlier because it meant I would have to revisit not a great day for me trading wise (and it was easier to reply to trivial comments!). So I was like up $20k.... but (and this happens) fell asleep before I had sold most of my poistions; then woke up back at break even, but then accidentally put the wrong figure in a buy order...and ended up buying 50000 of something instead of 5000!! :( Haha, though. Decided to liquidate that straight after... so all in all, ended up being over $10k down instead of $20k up :( Anyway, I will try to mark these things down as good lessons for the future (1) don't fall asleep in the middle of tactical trades, and (2) double check those figures!

So where is the market going next. From the charts, I still have a suspicion that that BTC, ETH, and the markets in general could continue this decline longer before bouncing. Even ignoring the charts, I think many people might sense that there was a crazy hype cycle two months ago. And with anything that is instantly a craze, be it Pokemon go, or some crypto bubble, I cant really see how we can't expect a prolonged correction after it. Of course there may be bounces, but that's just my instinct right now.

I still have that extra STEEM I bought however (haha..), but now it's trapped on poloniex again as deposits/withdrawals are now disabled yet again! :(

Interested to hear that you are still looking to add to your portfolio. I guess I've sort reached the 'not another ico feeling!'. Is there something about SAN that interests you in particular (I haven't really looked into it)?

Aw, I'm sorry to hear that...both about your bad trading day and having your STEEM stuck on polonieux...ouch :(

That's a tough break for sure but I think you've got a good attitude about it/good way of looking at it. It's always good when we can learn from our difficult experiences.

I think your judgement is sound in terms of where the market is going.

Yeah, I just added a bit of SAN to my portfolio. I really want to get into CIVIC too (starting to regret that I missed their ICO) but it's not out on the exchanges yet and I have no idea when it will be....so I'll have to keep my eyes peeled.

Basically, when I looked down a list of ico's a little while back when I was trying to figure out what to invest in, SAN was the most interesting to me. I thought that the Santiment folks really had something that people would want.....cryptos investors wanting data on market sentiment/better data all in one place to help them make better trade decisions. I also liked how the SAN token was well integrated into their platform, similar to how STEEM is here. I'm not sure what type of return it could bring but I think it will be successful and is the first of it's kind in the market. They already have a working product too....I believe now they just need to add more features to it.

To be honest though....it was really my gut instinct more than anything else....it just stood out to me more than the others and I think I then thought about if further and came up with good logical arguments/reasoning for why I should invest. As I'm sure you probably know already though....I'm no pro at this and barely know what I'm doing.....so please don't take that as investment advice or anything like that...haha. I'm just having fun investing a little in the crypto world. I've been lucky that I've made a bit of money with this, but that's really because it's easier to make money with cryptos if you hold for a couple years, then only sell once you're sure it's higher than when you bought. I would totally fail at day trading though, I just know it.

Hey thanks. Yeah, just the way it goes - some trades are good, others not so good - that's the job really. I'm looking at the current downtrend with some relish though, just in the sense that if you can buy at the bottom of a deep spike down, it's one of best opportunities to make some money (even if my 'hold' portfolio keeps dropping in value).

As for SAN, ah - I remember, I did look it up. I did see they mentioned using the poloniex troll box iirc but unfortunately that's no longer around at present. But I guess there are other metrics they can use. Might look into it, when the market downturn bottoms out. I am definitely not buying anything more though from now on (even steem ;) ) until I think the correction is over!! I'm looking for ETH somewhere between 120 and 150, and BTC between 1500 and 1700. These are just guesses on my part though, and not trading advice either of course.

As for my 'trapped steem', Im optimistic poloniex will be able to 'free it' for me at sometime in the future ;). Otherwise I'll just have to give up like last time and re-buy on bittrex (annoying!)

Anyway, I hope you have good fortune with your continued investing (if not trading)! :D

Thanks, you too :)