I was thinking the concentration of larger rewards will change, either by fewer votes or diminished voting power from big hitters.
As @aggroed pointed out in a post (that I can't seem to find now), after HF19 something like 92% of SD (or SP or Steem, I'm still sorting that all out) is in the hands of 1% of the voters, down from 97% pre-HF19.
They (you?) now only get 10 full power votes a day now.
Only time will tell how that impacts voting & payouts.
I'm admittedly still very green here so I can accept it if I'm just full of shit and don't know what I'm talking about.
But I suspect this week is a statistical anomaly.
Firstly, those numbers are irrelevant, as I have argued in a comment on that very post. That post has proven to be mostly wrong, now that we have seen minnows gain massively after HF19.
Everyone has a voting target of 10. All that means is everyone can make 10 votes per day while maintaining voting power near 100%. Earlier, you had to make 40 votes. You can still make 40 votes with 25% strength and maintain 100% VP. (Though do note only accounts above 500 SP get access to the strength slider.)
I made >100 votes yesterday, so my voting power is <10%. Different people have different options.
Like I said, the reward pool is constant. It's just that people have more options to use their VP.
By the way, the reduction happened on 20th June.
Like I said, I believe this weeks payouts to be an anomaly.
I'm not looking for an argument, but I do have a Six Sigma Master Black Belt and I can tell you that two days (thank you for correcting me) worth of numbers is not a significant enough statistical sample to base anything on.
I'm agreeing with you that the payouts are going to drop, it only remains to be seen by how much.
The X-Factor is always Human Behavior and I can't predict that.