People have a tendency to look at something based upon what they know. This makes sense since we establish our entire lives creating mental reference points which we add to. It is through this how we learn. One idea ties into another which them allows us to add more to it. This is also beneficial when encountering something new. Our minds look for similarities to create new reference points which to build. Often times these are correct since the situations are similar. However, there are times they are not.
I believe the cryptocurrency/blockchain world is one where this practice is flawed. The situation we are dealing with is not similar to what most people encountered before. Hence, their thinking creates some mistaken viewpoints.
For example, I believe a large part of the pullback in the last week or so is because we have so many new people, especially Wall Street types, who invested in cryptocurrencies the last couple of months. Since Thanksgiving, we saw a huge run up in the total market cap meaning hundreds of billions of dollars entered the space in about 45 days. You do not get that type of input in $2,000 segments. There were large purchases made.
The problem with people who are dropping this type of money is that, most likely, they were successful in other investing areas. Therefore, they are bringing their experience in the equities markets, as an example, to cryptocurrency. This is where the problem comes in. When you see a 10% drop in a stock, you are scanning the headlines to see if the CEO was indicted for something or there was an accounting scandal. If it goes to 15%, all bets are off, the thing is crashing.
Contrast that with the crypto world. A 10 percent drop can happen during one's coffee break. It is nothing. We see moves of 20%-30% that are standard. Hence, looking at this with the same mindset as the stock market caused a great deal of panic selling. People who are familiar with this market, and know what a decline really is, were not phased. Just HODL and it will go back up. This is how crypto is wired.
Therefore, I hope you can cast some of your old reference points aside to see things a bit differently.
Today, some of the richest companies in the world, at least according to market cap are Google, Apple, and Facebook. The first two are in a race to become the "first trillion dollar company" with Facebook not far behind.
But what do these companies have in common?
The answer is all three created ecosystems. That is where their value lies. People mistakenly believe it is in their product or service. While these are parts of the whole, they would be basically worthless without the ecosystem tying it all together. It is what underlies everything else.
Now let us look at Hive.
We know Hive is a blockchain on which applications are being built. One advantageous part of blockchain technology is that everything built reads the same data on the network. This is why a person can go from Peakd to 3Speak and still have access to one's wallet. That information is on the blockchain with the app being the interface into the data.
Cryptocurrency is essentially the first app that blockchains adopted. It is similar to Email for the Internet 25 years ago. That was the first wide spread application which was followed up by others including social media. On here, Hive is also a cryptocurrency which is tied to the blockchain. They cannot be separated. Hive does not apply to either the bitcoin or ethereum blockchains, only Hive.
Therefore, HIVE is the app that is intertwined through all other apps that are built upon the blockchain (at least the ones that use currency transactions).
These are the fundamental concepts of this blockchain.
The companies I listed spend many years and billions of dollars developing their ecosystems. They work hard to protect it so as to not let people escape. I use that term because, when you look at it, people are locked in. Of course, they do not have much of a fight on their hands since human nature plays right into this.
I am often asked how I can make the forecasts I do. People seem to consider the idea that other blockchains will be geared towards social media. I agree. So won't that destroy the value of HIVE?
The answer is no.
For the same reason people are held hostage by Facebook, Apple, and Google, Hive will have people on this blockchain. That reason is also why people stay in the same house when a newer, better neighborhood is built not far away: it is too much of a pain in the ass to move.
People are lazy. If they are happy where they are at, they will not move. There needs to be incentive for them to do that.
Isn't that what the people who are marketing Hive on Facebook and YouTube are finding. In spite of a better system where people can earn more money and enjoy censorship resistance, most still remain where they are. Of course, who can blame them. Moving requires leaving what you know and all of those you interact with. This is a major hassle.
This makes ecosystems of this nature very powerful which is evidenced by the values of these companies that perfected it. We are going to see the same thing with Hive.
Hive has the advantage of being early to the game. While some like to make the comparison to MySpace, this is a completely different arena. MySpace was a closed system which was depended upon central decisions as to the direction it was taking. This does not exist on blockchain. Yes we can look at Steemit through the MySpace eyes and realize they could face the same perils. However, the network overall, is free to embrace whatever it desires. Anyone can put up an app. If many flock to it, then is a big part of the blockchain.
It is crucial to understand the value is not in the apps like it is in the non-blockchain world. The apps are a part of the ecosystem which is where the value lies. What is actually taking place on the network? That is what ultimately determines the value of a token.
So how is $1,000 for $HIVE possible?
At that price, we are looking $256B blockchain. Today, that sounds outrageous although it is not. At present, Bitcoin is just below that after the recent pullback. Bitcoin is by far the most popular blockchain in terms of investment dollars. However, it presently has some limitations to work through. While I do believe the people on there will figure it out and scale the thing up, this blockchain has some advantages over all the rest. The biggest, in addition to speed, is no transaction fees. This is enormous when you are looking at the micropayment world.
Social media is a prime example of an industry that is made up of ecosystems. In addition to Facebook and Google, there is the likes of Twitter which was innovative in its day but really is nothing more than a microblogging app. Yet people use it because all their followers are there. Again, it is too much of a pain in the ass to leave.
At present Hive has 50,000 daily active users on here. I can tell you, most of them are like me. We are not going to leave even if another blockchain pops up. Why would we? There is money being made and our connections are here. It would take a serious step backwards for that to happen.
Which brings up the point, how can it? While possible, it is unlikely. Right now Steemit is the flagship app, the one most use. However, if that started to go downhill i.e. go in the direction of MySpace, there are other options. At present there is Busy and Chainbb which could be used. Both those apps have developers constantly working on them. There is also the possibility that someone, as I write these words, is working on another app that is going to blow Steemit out of the water.
My point is the innovation and replacement can come from anywhere yet still be part of the same ecosystem. There are 50K of us who will not move to another ecosystem without a fight. Many of those people are developers who can create interfaces if needed. This is what makes blockchain unique. People get upset at Facebook or Google, if they go to another ecosystem those companies lose that person. One leaves Hive.Blog to go to Peakd, that person is still on this blockchain (and using Hive).
There is another aspect to this which we saw yesterday. I posted this morning about a Visa card that can be purchased using STEEM.
Here is the article:
This is another asset we see being added to the ecosystem. Suddenly, people have an easier way to convert their STEEM to a currency they can use to buy things. At this moment, there are not a lot of options of where to spend STEEM. Nevertheless, it does exemplify an important aspect to currencies: people will use what they have. People will spend $HIVE if that is what they are given and as long as they are on this network, that is what they are paid in.
Over time, I expect we start to see more avenues of commerce for $HIVE developed. This is going to be another important part of the ecosystem which will add to its value. One thing Facebook did a sensational job at is, once people are in, they stay there. This is because new features are regularly added which can be used without leaving the platform. I fully expect Hive to do the same thing.
The advantage with blockchain is that, unlike Facebook or Google, nobody has to pass ideas by someone for approval. If someone wants to see something on this blockchain, he or she only has to find someone able to develop it and it is on the blockchain.
In 5 years, a $250B blockchain will not be considered large. There are going to be a number of blockchains in the trillions. There is simply going to be too much activity taking place on them for them not to have that value. We see the value of ecosystems in the market caps of Google, Facebook, and Apple. Hive has the ability to surpass them all.
Nevertheless, $HIVE at $1,000 is still 1/3 the cap of Apple and Google and 1/2 that of Facebook.
And that my friends is how powerful blockchain is.
If you found this article informative, please give it an upvote and a rehive.
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I joined the 100k club, but did not even thought that there are 1m club, too. I'm in. 🙌😀
@taskmaster4450 I don't always agree with you on everything, but I want to thank you! Being so fanatical about Steemit has made me think through your eyes and see other points of view - that for me is invaluable.
I think that the only way Steemit is heading for 1000$ is if the Steemit environment and the product itself improves, although Steem is not Steemit. Steem is so much more ! I am sure your conviction will pay out and you will make a fortune as a reward for your conviction.
As a total newbie I have written one of the problems I think will get worse and worse. You can check the artcile HERE
Thank you.
Thanks for the article, @ervinneb I share your concern about spammers. I'm beyond disgusted with the terse and ignorant "nice job bro" trash they pump out at an alarming rate. I've been muting them immediately, but it's becoming tempting to flag them instead.
@taskmaster4450 - You've done a great job in dispelling many concerns and attacks revolving around Steem, but this one still haunts me. Do you have a pre-existing article addressing reward pool abuse that you can recommend? Particularly of concern is the accusation that investors will run away screaming when they learn about the spam/flagging wars - and perhaps the overall spam presence here.
When Steem is compared to bitcoin it beats the tar out of it on every level - speed, capacity, no fees, even wallet security - but if public perception is stubbornly biased and fearful, that could be quite counterproductive.
As always, thanks!
@overkillcoin - Thank you for your comment. I think downvoting is the way to go, but that is the author's choice in my opinion.
P.S. Great Job with your infographics, you are very talented. Keep up the good work !
‘People have a tendency to look at something based upon what they know’
This is why most main stream commentators are wrong on btc and crypto. They compare it to stocks or commodities which is their only frame of reference. They are destined to continue to call it wrong until they accept it’s an entirely new asset class and needs to be treated differently!
The first move advantage is something to point at. 2017 was the year to financial the potential growth of the blockchain... hundreds of ICOs gained their support in order to grow the blockchain's rails to expand this territory, but also, to start bringing some users to this possibility.
Steem is, as i'm informed, the first platform in the blockchain that is meant for people (not inversor, or programmers), and that advantage would be really dificult to cut...
Now, im not sure if you are aware with Tether in the last price collapse, but the blockchain revelead to not be really strong dealing with bankers... If Steem wants to prevail it needs to GROW fast, and i think its on the good trail, becouse if banks, big companied with cashflow or media targets that market cap you were refering, they could easily do it.... usually, money wins.... and we will se that horrible truth more and more, like we did with Tether a couple days ago...
So what happens when people start putting Isis beheadings and child porn on dtube/steem and the government gets involved? Facebook had their fake news, and now regulators want to put their dirty fingers all over it.
Blockchain is decentralized so no government can touch it. It is impossible to do.
D.Tube and Steemit obviously can be hit by government action depending upon the countries they are in since they are actual companies.
But then again, there are other companies that could pop up outside US hands.
I hope so. I’m so sick of government sticking its nose in my business. I feel like I can’t even breathe.
preach bro i'm wit ya
Government can touch the applications connected to it. And these are the entrance points where money is made. I deed, this is one of the most week points of steem. Put enough illegal content on the blockchain and anyone who is hosting, processing, viewing or - a especially european invention - even 'enabling access to - it, is commiting crimes and/or can be held for damages.
Only if the application is in an area the government can enter.
And again, it is only an interface to the blockchain...it Steemit got taken down, for example, developers could put up 3 more interfaces on Github to use that could be downloaded by anyone.
The developers can create interfaces quicker than the governments can play merry-go-round trying to take down apps.
They may not be able to close it down entirely, but the FED could probably do a lot of damage to steemit if they wanted to: there are less than 200 witnesses who run the servers, and most of those are in the States and many are nonymous (Jerry Banfield's even posted videos of where he lives on YouTube); in the grand scheme of things it's not that many people for the government to intimidate.
And you could get another vote another 125 witnesses in instantly if they went after them.
Hell, if push came to shove, there is even the ability to fork the entire blockchain and airdrop other tokens.
Yes, fair enough... but I do wonder how many people would be that committed in the face of state violence?
I am wont to believe that the greater percentage of society are not as depraved in their minds as the few who commit crimes online or post nasty content & these can be curated by the greater.
It wouldn't be that great from a marketing perspective either - IF such postings do start to crop up.
No it wouldnt, you are right about that.
But then again, that is akin to that stuff being on the internet and people shunning the internet because it is there.
Besides, that stuff can be down voted out....although the ISIS beheadings might get a following.
True, sorry by the way I don't mean to put a downer on future estimations of the value of the platform, but I do like to try and be a realist!
At the end of the day, it's all so very new it's difficult to make predictions. I mean, look what's going on with the latest SBD boom - is that a laundering pump or genuine ground-up interest?
I dunno,
And I look forward to the day when I have a rep of 70, and I can make $100 for basically just saying I don't know!
I dont get the SBD either....I havent figured it out. Why would someone pay $7 for something with a $1 face value. I know it is done all the time...speculation.
Either way, I am going to right it.
As for the downer, no problem, I always welcome discussion....this is blockchain, people are free to express what they want. That is what freedom is about...being able to say what one wants while also accepting that others can say what they want.
Too many want it one way...freedom to say what they want but censor others.
Yes it is impossible to guess what is going to happen but with what took place last year and what most likely is going to take place with Wall Street in 2018, I think it safe to say STEEM heading much higher.
People are just becoming aware of steemit, a social media with a difference, and the super excitement comes from the fact that you earn on this platform doing the same thing you do on facebook for free. Money is a great motivator and soon enough people are going to spend less and less time on their platforms and flock into steemit. The implication is steem's value sky-rocketing. Then anything becomes possible, $1000, $10000 and even more. Steem is going to surpass all other cryptos, time will see that happen. Thanks again for another blockbuster like this.
ONLY $256 billion?
And the rest... the current market value of Facebook, YouTube and Amazon combined is somewhere in the region of $1.5 trillion!
Steem fuses all three of those concepts together, plus a payment ecosystem for gaming and app development more generally, not to mention possible SMT evolutions in the decentralised education space.
A future market cap of of around $10 trillion is a possibility.
That puts steem @ around $40 000.
Go me with the optimism!
I have to have something to write about next week. LOL
This might make you lol too - I saw your advert for Manna, was on Bittrex and bought some 'MANA' by mistake, which is (I found out later) a currency for a virtual world, which is pretty interesting as it goes.
By sheer luck it doubled in value 24 hours later and triggered a limit sell on half of it, so now I have some free 'MANA' (effectively).
So cheers!
At some point I will actually get hold of some Manna too!
Great news on your MANA play although MANA and Manna are different.
Manna is traded, at present under GRT...
Manna is a token designed for basic income purposes.
Yes, I'd guessed it was something like that (I now KNOW because I've checked it out), imagine my surprise when I visited the web site (after I'd bought the damn stuff) and found my way to a virtual reality site.
I've held off buying a virtual head set!
Hahahaha wow. Lucky typo there, nice.
Go 4 it!
Bro, thanks for this post...
At present STEEM has 50,000 daily active users on here. I can tell you, most of them are like me. We are not going to leave even if another blockchain pops up.
That is very helpful for me...
So I followed you Taskmaster4450
Great work
Excellent, you're right, people will have a hard time leaving their followers behind, I'm currently trying to recommend people who do original content on Facebook and YouTube, to go to Steemit and Dtube, however, I think it will be a job difficult, since all their followers have them in those networks. But I think that Steemit or Dtube or any other Steem-based, provides much more economic value for the creators of content, therefore, will benefit much more, even having fewer followers here.
I noticed what you are talking about. When I made my DTube account, I saw that I could use my Steemit account, and that they were linked together. I really like this about this blockchain.
One thing that I think this platform does need that it doesn't have is a central hub type app. For example, if I want to change my about section on DTube, I must go back to Steemit. Instead, it would make more sense if there was a hub, or they both had the same interface for their cross-overs.
Since I started Steemit I rarely get on Facebook anymore. Except to check on family. I'd rather read, create, and upvote quailty posts. This blockchain is going to take off in 2018, I agree with task. Soon they'll be even more apps. created that coexists with Steemit.
When I found out about a way to exchange STEEM for gift cards on the website on which you shared on your previous blog post, I was so happy that finally, we can spend our hard-earned STEEM for some tangible products.
For now, I want to focus on accumulating STEEM and produce quality content for the moment so that I will reap the rewards later.
I agree Steemit is the social media will that surpass the centralized companies such as Apple, Google, and Facebook and will be carefully watched by investors. I will never leave Steemit although I have recently stumbled upon a competitor Narrative. I don't know if you heard about it and it builds its blockchain around NEO.
Anyways, a very long and informative article there! Upvoted!
I agree all the way. Once people get that fist payout they are generally here to stay. And this blockchain has so much potential for future apps.
Steem is the only blockchain that offers a full ecosystem similar to the big three web companies.
Others might come along in the future but there is no reason to believe that Steem will dwindle because of that.
Thanks for the post.
Keep Steeming!
A lot of development must happen in order to reach that number, also there are a lot of unknowns along the way, like communities we don't like (let's say white supremacist for example) popping around this ecosystem.
I agree wholeheartedly that the selloff was mostly from the new investors, taskmaster. We’re already seeing the rebound as we speak.
$1000 Steem? I definitely think it’s possible within a few years. It definitely gives me an incentive to introduce people to Steemit!
I think that one of the DAC's or Bitcoin will be the first trillion dollar company. Centralization tends to stagnate whatever it touches. This would be because crypto is on a parabolic / logarithmic curve for adoption whereas these other companies are linear.
Lol...i feel the same. Am already suck up to this mess. Only wish i had more steem to make me feel like am not doing something crazy.
Also steem at $1000 is very much possible and 5years is even far ...but quite a moderate one. Steem is revolutional and once all the doubters get their heads clear and bad belly politician and government stop treating the crypto world badly Things should skyrock pretty soon.... Thank you for alwys having good good content here and i look forward to the next one. @taskmaster4450
How much years do you think it will take for steem to reach 1000?
Have you taken the inflation in consideration right? Because steem is creating new tokens much more faster than other cryptos.
Inflation means nothing to me because the growth rate in terms of users will far outweigh that.
The inflation rate is only 9.25% and going down .25% roughly every year.
So yes, when it does it, it wont be 256M...maybe 325M...so the blockchain is worth $325B...still a small number.
How many years, I dont know but I would not be surprised to see it in 3-5 if the growth rate accelerates.
SMTs can really add a lot of people to this blockchain very quickly.
Yeah the newcomers investors looked at their experience trading stocks and when shit hit the fan with cryptos, they got scared and we saw it when the market went down by a lot... It's really true that we look for similar experiences when we do something new, but cryptos are different than stocks and the investors should learn that if they want to make any money!
I went to my feed and you were first. 20 seconds old and $7 plus change. I can see why now after a most detailed and thought out blog. You make many a valid point and I would continue to use steemit even without the rewards. I love the envioronment here and the communities. In less that a year I've made more friends that a decade on Facebook which is little more than a fancy messaging system to me. I had the internet before it had pictures, and when HTML was developed you could search all day and get peoples personal pages just like steemit today. Try a search for anything and your likely to find a great blog on the topic.
Life is Good
@taskmaster4450 you are a true visionary my friend! I love how you just super-charged your $100 STEEM prediction by 10....with data to back it up. These are exciting times no doubt.
Thanks @summertooth.
I must clarify it isnt the same timeframe. I dont think we will see $1000 STEEM by end of 2018 like I do $100 STEEM.
Yep, I understand that. Forget about the steemit whales, you are the STEEM BULL!
(insert photoshop of @taskmaster4450 riding bull here)
:)
Don't play with me, Smokey!
If STEEM gets to 1,000 per coin.......Imma retire. In this crypto space the only thing I know for certain is nobody knows how far this roller coaster can go.
That is the goal @harleymechanix...to get you retired.
I would say, that for the value of STEEM it doesn´t matter if Steemit as an App to access the blockchain will be successful in the future or not. I personally only use busy.org since day one and would never change to Steemit. As long as there are enough ways to access the blockchain to fit everybodys needs, STEEM will be fine. In fact it would be even good for the blockchain, if there are more Apps built on it and there is some kind of competition. As long as this is true, I see a bright future: "What happens on the blockchain, stays on the blockchain!". ;) We just stay loyal and have the bigger picture in mind :)
Keep these great posts coming. Its a little difficult to explain steemit to my friends as theres so much to it, I will recommend them to read your posts to get some understanding of it and the potential it has. 👍
I am convinced that steem will boom - for example triggered by the introduction of the SMTs. But 1000 USD is a dream which would make me a very happy man.
What is fascinating to me is, that so far it looks to me, that technical analysis works much better in crypto world that on wall street. maybe because stocks markets are too manipulated with option expiration and other factors, I don't know, but I love it, what i see here. For now ;-)
Ecosystem! You are 100% correct! I can see 1k Steem happening.
Danke für diese Informationen
thank you for that yeap I can see that too! thank you
With love,
harj : ) xoxo
Abstract artist
(My latest artwork is "Government")
good post. Thank you for sharing ♥ keep going
Thanks a lot for your valuable post sharing.....
i like this post, best of luck my dear......
thats pretty cool to know
I have learnt alot through this post and it also assure HODL is good. Thank you for the information
welll sir very right, as you had described all the advantage of steem over other currency and also you had talk about the human behaviour of panic seller, you this post is really very informative and every should read the whole post.
nice post
And have you seen the massive buy wall in the internal market today?
There's an order for just over 57,700 STEEM @ 0.774526 placed by none other than @freedom
Thanks for your kind information.....
thanks for share....
It think there’s a possibility that after EOS is launched there will be a similar but improved Steemit clone implemented by Dan Larimer and block.one. It will run on top of the EOS Blockchain and have all the coding changes Larimer would like to see in Steemit but can’t implement because of the community control. If you’re willing to following me there, the next step would be an airdropped token. This might be distributed to the EOS holders or possibly STEEM holders. Which is the better game theory move?
really interesting. I am here to learn and to blog but I have to say its so much more positive here than a joke like facebook. I hope we all enjoy the growth. Thank you for the explanation
How do people adjust with the pricing ups and down in cryptocurrency? I mean what is the strategy? Patience for long term or investing little to avoid big loss?
very informative post ✌✌
good work in the artical.steem is our future.you are good writer
Great post. I'm going to share this post to Facebook, as although I've binned Facebook I'm currently in the process of talking my Facebook friends into getting an account here on Steemit and we can all be one big happy family! 😁
Good post! Thank you! Upvoted.
This article makes me a better HODLer
I totally agree with the ecosystem part. That's why I'm very interested in SMTs and other services like DTube which actually became really good. DTube was a bare bones prototype project few months ago barely loading the videos and I was on sidelines wishing the team good luck. Now it's Almost as good as YouTube. I'm ok with 480p for the most part. I read their recent updates and DTube is growing really well. We could be seeing more YouTubers joining.
All I wish for is less scammers like Trevon and Craig who pump pyramid schemes and ponzi projects that get rich hurting and exploiting the trust of (Stupid) people.
Fantastic blog post, really informative and exciting! I'm happy I've discovered steem so early and can't wait to start building my community! Nice work bro! @samsmithson
Thank you for this great text.
What attracted me to blockchain technology was it's dissimilarity the current way of doing things. As a developer, I like to learn new skills, be aware of current developments and a good challenge is always welcomed. It's exciting to see the Steemit platform and its community grow.