I think you are missing two things in your analysis: utility and massa adoption.

The point of view of your analysis is the investor POV, analysing what would make the token value rise.

But what most of the coins growing in value(even some big ones) are missing os exactly utility(or usability) and the massa adoption.

All those coins may still rise a lot, but they Will definitly fall flat If they dont find a reason to exist or nobody Care enough about It.

It looks to me that steem os actually addressing these two issues:

Utility, where the value of the tokens os tied to what people think is good content. If people like something, they Share the wealth.

Mass adoption, where steemit uses an vehicle that is well known and used, the social midia.

99% of users dont Care how Facebook, twitter, or YouTube Works under the roof, but people flow to these sites because they offer something useful for them.

Therefore, the steem value doenst lie on How much the token cost, but How useful It is for its users.

The tecnical part Will only matter ti a Very small amount of people that have lots of money to invest in projects like this.