Interesting analysis, and I agree with some of your opinions, and much less to the previsions of the 'experts'.

The thing is that analysts consider Steem like any other asset, in a system that is antiquated compared to the technology Steem represents.

For example, comparing it with facebook or Google growth makes absolutely no sense: This is not the same context and time frame at all!

In my opinion, Steem will rise much more than 11$ by the end of the year. Your 20$ seems more reasonable, although I believe it can go further than that , especially if SMTs start to implement, and by observing the hive of developers joining the bark in heightening the Steem Blockchain.

On another angle, the attractiveness of Steem on the general public could be amazing. Imagin, with SMTs, everything you do on the Internet gets paid... and will be based on the Steem block chain.
So, if you hold some Steem today, and things go as planned, bingo... we could be talking about 4 digit prices. We'd become millionaires!

On a less optimistic side, I am more reserved than you on D-tube right now. I used it, but reverted to YT: compared to Youtube, there is a huge way to go yet in terms of speed, compatibility and ease of use for the public: AN alternative to YT cannot be less convenient to use than Youtube.
Dont' get me wrong, If D-tube becomes the next Youtube, that would be amazing for the Steem Blockchain, and I have utter admiration for the skill and courage of the developers. But just think about the mountains of servers you require to have the same fluidity of use... I will continue checking Dtube out, to see how things evolve on that front.