The reward pool is constant. People have the option to give out greater strength votes, but so does everyone else. If everyone voted the same way, it wouldn't matter if it the vote target was 40 or 10.
Of course, not everyone votes the same way, so those who vote few will gain influence, while those who vote more than 20-30 times will lose influence. Either way, it doesn't mean the rewards are 4 times as much due to this change. Most of the increase in payouts you may see is due to the linear rewards.
I was thinking the concentration of larger rewards will change, either by fewer votes or diminished voting power from big hitters.
As @aggroed pointed out in a post (that I can't seem to find now), after HF19 something like 92% of SD (or SP or Steem, I'm still sorting that all out) is in the hands of 1% of the voters, down from 97% pre-HF19.
They (you?) now only get 10 full power votes a day now.
Only time will tell how that impacts voting & payouts.
I'm admittedly still very green here so I can accept it if I'm just full of shit and don't know what I'm talking about.
But I suspect this week is a statistical anomaly.
Firstly, those numbers are irrelevant, as I have argued in a comment on that very post. That post has proven to be mostly wrong, now that we have seen minnows gain massively after HF19.
Everyone has a voting target of 10. All that means is everyone can make 10 votes per day while maintaining voting power near 100%. Earlier, you had to make 40 votes. You can still make 40 votes with 25% strength and maintain 100% VP. (Though do note only accounts above 500 SP get access to the strength slider.)
I made >100 votes yesterday, so my voting power is <10%. Different people have different options.
Like I said, the reward pool is constant. It's just that people have more options to use their VP.
By the way, the reduction happened on 20th June.
Like I said, I believe this weeks payouts to be an anomaly.
I'm not looking for an argument, but I do have a Six Sigma Master Black Belt and I can tell you that two days (thank you for correcting me) worth of numbers is not a significant enough statistical sample to base anything on.
I'm agreeing with you that the payouts are going to drop, it only remains to be seen by how much.
The X-Factor is always Human Behavior and I can't predict that.