The first two days of Hardfork 19 has been a bonanza for authors and curators alike. However, it seemed clear that things were too good to be true - and they were. If we look back at pending payouts, we can see that minnows have gained massively, while top authors took major cuts worth over a thousand dollars. But shortly after HF19, it was not just minnows, even popular authors were making more money from new posts. I have an explanation for why. My numbers may be off completely, please feel free to correct.
During the HF18 era, the reward_balance had exceeded the reward pool for some reason, sitting at 1.69 million right before HF19. Meanwhile, reward pool generated for 30 days is approx. 1.44 million. (75% of inflation)
Right after HF19 went through, the reward_balance is being expended at a faster rate, presumably to achieve equilibrium with the 1.44 million reward pool. Currently, reward_balance is down to 1.52 million, which means 0.17 million has been slashed off in the first 2 days of HF19. That would suggest that within the next day or so, reward_balance will finally equal the reward pool generated.
I don't know what happens when reward_balance matches the reward pool. Does it go down further before bouncing back up? Or does it level off for a stable reward pool?
Either way, enjoy your rewards while they last, things will be going down by a factor of 2-3 very soon (as that is how much extra SP and SBDs were paid out last couple of days). Minnows can still rejoice - your rewards and influence will still be way up from pre-HF18 days.
Sources for this info -
https://steemdb.com/api/funds
https://steemd.com/
Back to reality. Thank you for enlightenment about steem reward pool!
this reality is now upon us.
Getting prepared for Equilibrium!
And those payments for posts that are already charged yesterday and today - will they also decrease?
Good question! I would guess not as that would once again mean the reward_balance would be too high, but let's see.
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Hi, yes.. I've seen that, of course, we minnows had such great rewards for the posts made just before the HF, but I see more fairness even when the votes are less and the payouts are in minor force, for example, some art post that had bad luck in the past, around 0.50$ now can be 5$ even if is little, give us encourage to keep working hard for better content :)
It's a free market, create content if you love it, think of your earnings as a bonus. Never expect large rewards, that's the best way to avoid disappointment. Engage with the community, make friends, that's a good way to increase your follower base and thus rewards.
but i already quit my job, and with the way i left, i dont think they will re-hire me :S
Quitting your job for an internet experiment? You have no one to blame but yourself :)
believe!
Lol. Gotta upvote that ;)
Thanks for sharing this info. As a minnow, I'm pretty happy about my ability to upvote still, even if the payout is less. Good to know. :)
Your votes are worth way more relative to before 20th June and will continue to be so!
yay! I love being able to make a bigger contribution to the community. :) Lots of great content out there.
@liberosist thanks so much for your insightful posts, i appreciate it. I'm following you, won't you please hop over to my page when you have a moment?
thanks for the write up
The payouts on my posts went up and now they are decreasing. Is this the reason?
That's probably due to the fluctuation in Steem price, it's been down last couple of days.
Well thought out... I was expecting things to equalize over the first couple of days, but it may take a bit longer.
It seemed to take some time after HF18 for things to normalize except they were lower initially with that HF!
Looks like it never really normalized during HF18, but it's happening now.
i guess, about a month...
Yeah, but only a day or two more, I hope.
Not only that, but the rewards being paid out this week are 4 times as many as you can expect going forward with the reduction from 40 Full Power votes/day down to 10.
The reward pool is constant. People have the option to give out greater strength votes, but so does everyone else. If everyone voted the same way, it wouldn't matter if it the vote target was 40 or 10.
Of course, not everyone votes the same way, so those who vote few will gain influence, while those who vote more than 20-30 times will lose influence. Either way, it doesn't mean the rewards are 4 times as much due to this change. Most of the increase in payouts you may see is due to the linear rewards.
I was thinking the concentration of larger rewards will change, either by fewer votes or diminished voting power from big hitters.
As @aggroed pointed out in a post (that I can't seem to find now), after HF19 something like 92% of SD (or SP or Steem, I'm still sorting that all out) is in the hands of 1% of the voters, down from 97% pre-HF19.
They (you?) now only get 10 full power votes a day now.
Only time will tell how that impacts voting & payouts.
I'm admittedly still very green here so I can accept it if I'm just full of shit and don't know what I'm talking about.
But I suspect this week is a statistical anomaly.
Firstly, those numbers are irrelevant, as I have argued in a comment on that very post. That post has proven to be mostly wrong, now that we have seen minnows gain massively after HF19.
Everyone has a voting target of 10. All that means is everyone can make 10 votes per day while maintaining voting power near 100%. Earlier, you had to make 40 votes. You can still make 40 votes with 25% strength and maintain 100% VP. (Though do note only accounts above 500 SP get access to the strength slider.)
I made >100 votes yesterday, so my voting power is <10%. Different people have different options.
Like I said, the reward pool is constant. It's just that people have more options to use their VP.
By the way, the reduction happened on 20th June.
Like I said, I believe this weeks payouts to be an anomaly.
I'm not looking for an argument, but I do have a Six Sigma Master Black Belt and I can tell you that two days (thank you for correcting me) worth of numbers is not a significant enough statistical sample to base anything on.
I'm agreeing with you that the payouts are going to drop, it only remains to be seen by how much.
The X-Factor is always Human Behavior and I can't predict that.
Well, Steem has also bobbled in price a bit. I did notice a drop on some posts, but not all. The goal was to trim the fat from those that consistently get thousands on a piece of crap, so good, on that part. It seems to be working fine.
True, the Steem price affects the rewards, but what we're considering here is irrespective of price. Much more Steem (via SBDs or SPs) was paid out in the last couple of days than expected.
Also, note that the drop in price is smoothed out over 3 days.
Is this why my post revenues have gone down to 1 cent from 3 cents? : P
When you reached $0.00 , then you will have reached equilibrium.
LOL - best comment I've read so far today. :)
My, what big teeth you have for a minnow.
Oh my, what big eyes you have.
No, it's not achieved equilibrium yet. That's probably due to something else, maybe someone unvoted, or downvoted, or maybe you were hallucinating :)
LOL. Thanks for that, haha. Yeah, I'm making the big bucks, baby!
@liberosist yeah dude total bonaza my pre HF payouts increased 5times loving this hardfork
#upvote
So it means that there will be lower payouts for the steem posts?
All payouts will be lower than the last two days.
Nice post i hop HF19 Will last longer
Minnows now have a power of self-voting which may certainly hamper many user's will to upvote a post!!
thanks for the heads up @liberosist , hopefully we see an upward trend once the equilibrium is achieved and a change in voting patterns that's sustainable.
Yeah it was interesting to see the huge boost after H19.
I feel like everyone was quick to use up their voting power the day of.
Hopefully things will find their balance.
Thank you for the heads up! i guess we will see what happens ...meanwhile i am positive that the Steemit community is growing everyday and will soon exponentially ...just to say that this is only the beginning and the future will be full of surprises...all the best to you all!!
Yeah, I can see this kicking in now.
Very informative let me resteem it
Opps there is no resteem button i think its old post thats why