The Satoshi Cycle says that as there is an increased interest in bitcoin, the price tends to increase, and as the price increases interest tends to increase further.
(Try saying that 10 times fast!)
The net effect is that prices continue to get pushed higher and higher as the cycle creates a compounding effect that tends to feed on itself which further propels prices skyward.
This theory is somewhat supported by the strong correlation between google searches and the price of bitcoin.
Check out the chart here:
As you can see, prices and search trends have a very strong correlation.
This is sort of one of those "chicken or the egg" debates.
Is the increased google searches causing the price to increase or is the increased price causing people to search for it more on google?
Probably a combination of the two, though it takes one of those two things to happen first in order to get things set in motion.
This kind of goes along with my post from the other day talking about the network effect and metcalfe's law, and how that relates to bitcoin and possibly steem as well.
It can be seen here:
Could this sort of thing also apply to steem and steemit.com?
The interesting thing about the satoshi cycle is that the same exact thing can probably be said about steem and steemit.com. As the price goes up, the rate of growth likely accelerates on steemit.com. As the price falters or goes down, the rate of growth likely slows down as well.
(I probably should graph that at some point here and see how close my assumptions really are)
This means (at least in theory) that if we could keep the price going up, the growth would in turn pick up which would likely cause the price to go up further which would in turn cause the growth to pick up even more etc etc etc.
Do you see where I am going with this?
There could be a compounding effect that launches the price of steem and the number of users of steemit.com into the stratosphere!
Can this actually happen?
Surprisingly (or not surprisingly), it could probably happen fairly easily.
Remember, it doesn't have to be the price going up first which causes users to show up, it can happen the other way around too, where users show up first and then the price follows etc etc etc.
This could happen by a couple large influencers showing up to what we already have currently and bringing their followers along with them, which would cause an explosion of new users over night which would likely get this whole snowball set in motion.
Another possibility could be from what we have already been told is coming.
Development and promotion of the site.
As the development takes off, the signup process is dialed in, and some marketing/promotion of the site takes place, things could really start to pick up on here.
Then, as all the new users showing up starts to help the price of steem increase, more and more users likely flock to the site because of the increasing price, thus creating that compounding effect we are looking for.
This kind of phenomenon could feed on itself as it takes the price and website to massive numbers.
Keep in mind that none of this is even including what could happen with SMTs.
All of the above is just taking into account strictly the steemit.com website, the network effect, metfalfe's law, the snowball effect, and the satoshi cycle all playing out in front of our eyes.
The SMT launch could cause the same type of thing, but just with a different catalyst. The price could start going up first which in turn would attract new users etc etc etc.
The key with all of this is that we just have to get to that point, which the developers say is coming, and the rest kind of takes care of itself as it feeds on itself.
If that is the case, 2018 should be a very exciting time to be holding steem and to be on the steemit.com website.
Stay informed my friends.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-etf-become-bitcoins-holy-grail
https://cointelegraph.com/news/satoshi-cycle-interest-in-bitcoin-raises-price-which-raises-interest
Image Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/satoshi-cycle-interest-in-bitcoin-raises-price-which-raises-interest
https://immersioninenglish.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/57-idiom-snowball-effect/
Follow me: @jrcornel
What a cycle! It is going to happen.
We all need to believe.
I said we all, not just the minnows.
Keep on steemit.
The cycle seems to be generally true about many things, from crypto to other investments. Nice points you have made. I think Steem has a great future too.
I am waiting for the outcome of SMTs and the role of Steem in enabling SMT ICOs. If Steem is purchased in large quanities by renowned online media sites, there is going to be a Steem cycle and I wish to be the person with some Steem at that time.
If executed well, SMTs can bring Steem new fames and heights. Let's see. What do you think though?
"Steem Cycle", I like that :)
Sounds better than the 'Satoshi Cycle'
Well, as I understand it, STEEM itself is already a kind of SMT for Steemit
What Goes Up Must Come Down
It certainly makes sense for Bitcoin. People get excited and get FOMO for sure. For STEEM I feel like this is partially true. When times are good newer users are likely to power up at least some of their earnings but large amounts of new people aren't like new people to Bitcoin who go ahead and buy some Bitcoin to participate. New users at least initially here are often a drain on the system in a way. Of course everyone wants to get some earnings and withdraw it to test that it is real. .......etc.
Knowing whether someone is a drain on the system or not is a hard task. I have taken more money out of the system then I have put in. But I have possibly generated more traffic to the site by writing about different things, putting up YouTube videos about STEEM / STEEMIT.
So people getting involved in STEEM is different than people getting involved in Bitcoin. A lot of people are here to make money by trading in their time and writing ability. With Bitcoin people already traded in their time at their job and then took that money and are just looking for capital appreciation in Bitcoin.
It is a tough thing to measure for sure.
Nice - I think it can happen. I don't see any major competitors to the space right now. These networks take time to grow.
Their's one russian fork that could be a compeditor to Steem in the long term. Because you end up with two different kinds of blockchains.
But since that platform is mostly isolated to russia. Steemit shouldn't have problems with competing with them.
Thanks - will keep an eye on this.
good posts
nice post
Yes you are right @jrcornel 2018 is the Steem's year...
Great post my friend well done i followed you because of your valuable information thank you for sharing this post
The inclusion of Googles influence is very interesting, but it is its natural channel as we seek advice on whether to invest in Bitcoin etc
Rumour/tip off has been replaced by Google
Its a great thing to have the synergy of the Steem token and the Steemit platform as well as all the new platforms that will be using SMTs. I think it is one big advantage we have over bitcoin - real world application even now as I type this! As you say, if the Satoshi cycle kicks in we will really takeoff. Yay!
Nice post
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I've been enjoying your content for a while jcornel !
Your solid consistent stuff really forces me to give you auto votes.
Thanks and Keep it Up !
Thats interresting
👍👍👍👍👍
I really hope for the crypto world that your assumptions are right!
Good job ! I believe in Steem 2018 too !
No question about bitcoin being of a global etf, though not "officially" recognized yet, you can bet the officials recognize it.
Steem is already traded on the exchanges and Steemit seems to be maturing nicely though some recent growing pain.
More and more people are beginning to understand the "quality content" thing and how trying to scam the system only diminishes themselves.
The problem is that the current user base is relatively small. So you only need a small number of fake accounts to impact the overall community.
In the upcoming years, it wil become increasingly difficult for the scammers to try to play the platform.
What's the meaning this content @jrcornel? 🤔
thanks for the info
I am intrigued with the idea of Steem being tied to the value of the dollar. That is something that could change drastically in either direction of course. If China and Russia succeed in creating a Silk Road bloc, that is something I would want a piece of. If the EU and Japan collapse first, very possible, the fleeing wealth will drive the dollar and the stock market to unheard-of levels. Diversify and hedge one's position in Steem and other cryptos with FX and/or metals, options perhaps?
"It's not the value of the oil, gold, milk, BTC or Steem going up, it's the value of the putrid petrodollar going down!"
Hey jrcornel,
Thanks for sharing