I think coinmarketcap.com marketcap figure might be a bit misleading, but I might be wrong. There is one problem to your last paragraph argument. No social network so far has managed to make people pay for to use it. Donald Trump in his AMA received 600 dollars worth of reddit gold. That is president candidate AMA. That would mean any trending top posts getting 10-15 bucks in steem. Yes. It could go that low too if no incentives for steem buying are available.
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The value at coinmarketcap.com are denominated at base in BTC so the value of BTC has an influence on the figure as well. If BTC goes down, so does this number. A more complicated tracking system would be required to see that value in dollars, and besides, Steem can be traded for several other tokens as well, and is, so really, that value should account for multiple pair crosses... The numbers of different tokens going into exchanges is getting dizzying.