STEEM totally decoupled from BTC - following its wave count

in #steem7 years ago (edited)

Hate to tell you this, but it looks like it is gonna get ugly again for STEEM. I see STEEM in the midst of a final C wave down. And all of this while a strong upmove in BTC is happening.

Why is that, you may ask? It is, because STEEM and BTC have two completely different wave counts. It is, because in BTC the correction is already over, but STEEM has not completed the corrective pattern. No new buyers rushing in, because they anticipate STEEM to be lower soon. It is never a good sign if a currency remains at one price level too long. Steem stayed between 1.20 and 1.40 wayyyy to long and now it's going down.
1zAtBWmG.png

This is my wave count - currently wave 3 of C is happening

1zAtBW2mG.png

I see it as a buying opportunity, probably the last time STEEM will be trading be this low.
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DISCLAIMER: I provide trading ideas using EW and Pattern analysis. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way i see the charts and what my trading ideas are. The author of this post is holding positions in this market at the time of this post.
If you make any trades after reading this post it is completely in your responsibility. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post you acknowledge and accept that.

Tell me what you think...

Have a nice day :-)

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I don't think it will recover to it's previous highs anymore. I see more good people leaving and more spammers joining. Also dan leaving steem and powering down, I think we are stuck in these doldrums for almost forever.
Anyway the system here is flawed where the early adopters have too much power. I don't mind them making money but why do they have so much powers to influence the community? Just because a monkey is an early adopter, you would be foolish to make him the king. That's precisely what's happening here and that's why steemit is stuck at these levels

Yes this is a problem. But it can actually be overcome with enough active accounts who actually invest a little in steem to begin with...

Or by rebalancing the voting powers to get more democracy in. If we rely on the newcomers investing and at the same time the early adopters leave, this is not healthy...
Maybe the faster powering doen times with the last HF was not such a good idea in the long run.

On rebalancing voting power:
I think the curve should have to decrease. The more Voting Weight (SP) you have the more impact is not a good strategy on the log run. The impact of whales needs to be decreased a little. I don't know how that could be done, but maybe others will. Maybe double the time your VP gets back to 100% if you have over 50k SP?

What if like twenty people get together and launch a copy and paste coin of Steem and a website like Steemit to use the new token? Give ourselves millions of the new token, pump it up and then dump and then start another blockchain. Got lots of money and time on your hands? Greedy? There is your formula.

Indeed. Wait - isn´t that exactly what is happening with Steemit right now?

I am not sure. The consistent selling pressure placed on steam by people powering down is hard to overcome. It is too much.

It is too much for now because there are not enough small accounts buying yet. I think next year will be better with higher price of steem

ok, so the bottom / buying opportunity should be around 0.00018 btc/steem?

I will make a new post, when the bottom is likely reached ;-)

I'll be watching

I hope so ;-)

Sadly but true!

Thx

Don't matter for me...

STEEM up or STEEM down

Thirds Rule Strategy

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Resteemed :-)

Danke für deine Unterstützung ;-)

Sehr gerne. Deine Analyse ist echt gut.

Good article. I like people giving projects on Steem since that is the platform we are on. :)

"I see it as a buying opportunity, probably the last time STEEM will be trading be this low."

Totally agree with you. This is a great moment to accumulate more STEEM.

Thanks for this analysis, will get ready to buy more STEEM!

Followed, wish to get update from you when is a good time to stock up Steem.

I will make an update post when the time comes. I expect the low this month or mid September. I will stock up too and inform you guys here...

I see this as a buying opportunity. Every dip we have in Steem should get the non-believers out until we have a good foundation. I believe those who stick it out with this platform will be rewarded in the long run and in the cryptocurrency world, the "long run" is relatively short! It wasn't long ago that bitcoin was at $1. That was in 2011. Just six years ago.

People should see Steem as a vehicle to learn more about cryptocurrencies and a "long term" vehicle to position themselves in a niche while it's still early.

I agree. If STEEM was easy then it would just pick up passengers. The fact there is a whole world of the unknown makes it still in pioneering mode.
The early adopters should be rewarded for taking a shot in the dark.
By the road not being easy, it forces me to find my own way.

I as a newcomer did power up a bit and i still believe that Steemit have a nice future. We just need this "elders" drama to end =) So that the devs can focus on the development.

Yap . if bitcoin ride get more hot

it help me so much .... thanks for share

This is a great opportunity to buy guys

sad to say but i think you are right

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If you ask me as I don't have a great deal of Steem
Is good news
Because I plan to buy when the Steem price drops under $0.90

And ouch if you paid 2sbd

that's cool

I thought the idea for steem was to stay close to the dollar in cost? Could explain the disconnect to bitcoin moves itself.
I found it in the white papers "A stable cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar."
I am sure if a currency replaces the dollar it should adjust to the replacement.

You missunderstood something. It is "only the SBD or Steem backed dollar that is supposed to be stable cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar." Not STEEM. Go read that article again if you don't believe me

STEEM is a free non pegged currency that could hit 10, 20, even 50$ in the future if STEEM becomes mainstream. More users on a lower amount of floating currency = higher price of STEEM. Right now the early adopters are selling faster than the new people buy the flaoting STEEM.

Caught in an interesting position at that point as STEEM is the actual liquid crypto, and SBD should always be around a dollar in price. What I see from your post is that NOW IS THE TIME to be buying STEEM, in the future it's worth will go up. That's not to say that everyone should be blowing all their SBD, because the in platform currency collects nice interest AND is needed to add weight to payouts from writing and curating.

Great post, upvoted, followed and resteemed

Thank you very much 🔥🔥🔥 I appreciate it ;-)

As far as I know you can only collect interest on SBD that you locked up in your savings.

I would wait a week or two with buying steem, I will make an update post when the correction is likely over.

Yeah I saw that too. Anyone who wants to invest in the long term (3-5 years) should be looking to drop some of their account worth into savings. Since Steemit is still beta, STEEM is gonna fluctuate, but imagine what's going to happen once mass adoption takes place.

Looking back at it now, the laptop I have was a gift from a friend that was using it to mine BTC back in 2013, he gave up. My plan is to definitely keep a good amount of my earnings in the platform one way or another, and then to use some to make small investments in other cryptos. BTC, LTC, and now maybe XRP as well.

Thank you. After reading and re-reading 44 pages I feel a bit dizzy, But I believe I finally figured it out. So I did get the two mixed up. Hopefully, this will help others also an not just me....lol
Sorry for speaking out of turn. :)

Well, now that you read it all and feel like you have it figured out let me ruin your day a bit. The white paper is hopelessly out of date. There is no interest being paid currently.

Holding SBD is fine if you want stability and steem power is good if you want it invested but DO NOT just hold liquid STEEM. It is devalued slightly every day by design. If you hold 1000 STEEM for one year and the price of STEEM does not change you would get less steem power for your STEEM a year from today than you would right now.

Thank you for the tip!
I was planning to throw all my steem into the savings section in my wallet. Do you think that is still ok or just power & SBD?

Not that I am a financial adviser but the only way holding steem in a savings account would be if you are convinced that the price of steem will outpace the reduction of its SP buying power. Really the only reason at all I can see to put anything in that savings is security as it protects your holdings if someone gets into your account.

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Hi @ew-and-patterns, I think the red line must be set back to march. I see no reason to put it on may. However, I am expecting NEM and NXT will increase at monday, because BCH balances will be credited by 8/14 on Poloniex. But remember, anything can happen, so I keep an eye on STEEM these days;) thanks!

cat got an eye on you.

Yes I saw that. Thanks for the warning

Yes kitty .

Yes this is stupid, but I already figured out what to do. This is just some bad karma for her which is gonna come back to her 10fold. She thinks she has some special entitlement like steemit police. lol

She is using huge amounts of her time to shoot random people in the foot. That's pathetic and god is gonna punish her for her deeds.

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