Excellent analysis and well constructed arguments with good caveats thrown in - you explained this very well. I do, however, believe that there should always be a very large warning over the supply demand situation and the tiny number of influencers. Both these factors add an enormous variation factor which can be triggered in any regression lines (fibonacci or otherwise).
Bittrex, poloniex and blocktrades (though the traded portion is not clear) hold the keys to steem which only has 40% being tradable right now and the pricing precludes more - a self-perpetuating spiral?
Thanks for your great work.
Namaste.