Steem Price Goes To The Moon, Whales Keep Flagging - Why Correlation Is Not Causation

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

During last hour, the price of Steem rose to about $0.14, almost double than yesterday. This surge is happening exactly at the same time with the (in)famous experiment of "whales not voting". What a coincidence :)

Speaking of coincidences, the Steem price pump started exactly 22 hours ago, with a volume of more than 250BTC in Poloniex only, for a 4 hours window (that's almost 300k USD in 4 hours). The current pump window started a little more than an hour ago, on a volume of more than 400BTC on Poloniex only. Whoever is pumping has some very deep pockets. I have a few theories, but no fact, so I won't say anything. Just have a look at the chart.

Screen Shot 2017-03-17 at 8.34.12 PM.png

Incidentally, at the exact time of the first pump window, @ned left a very considerate comment on my post about stopping my support as witness and seed node operator. Have a look for yourself:

Screen Shot 2017-03-17 at 8.28.54 PM.png

I love how these things are left into the blockchain forever. Speaking of this, let's see one of @ned's comments about flagging from almost a year ago (thanks @remlaps for pointing that out in your comment):

Screen Shot 2017-03-17 at 8.29.07 PM.png

Life is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you're gonna get. I will award 1 Steem to whoever posts first, in the comments, the source of the previous sentence.

And now, ladies and gents, let the hurricane of downvotes begin! :)

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I would also be skeptical that the 'experiment' is producing the rise in STEEM.
The 'experiment' is producing a rise in people leaving and being pissed off, but I fail to see how it wold influence the exchange.

This looks like a single investor / kabal taking a punt, or someone artificially inflating the price to give the impression that the experiment in the way it was run is a good thing (which it is not) or that @dan leaving has produced a sudden surge in the value of STEEM.

While I hope for the best for this platform, I am growing more and more wary of the actions of the few. And I think this is more of a smoke screen to distract (disgruntled) users, than the rest of the world suddenly waking up and saying 'Oh look! Here is this STEEM thing. I want lots of it right now!'

Trust, especially in the online world, is a very, very fragile thing. And I think at the moment Steemit.inc are running very close to the edge where that trust will be lost. And once it is lost, I doubt it will be regained easily.

Why? This is not Facebook. Money is involved. And when you don't trust someone with the money, you'll not invest or play. You'll go somewhere else.

This spike might appease a few people for a bit. But what happens when the price corrects once volume goes back down, and the whales are back - post experiment?

Same Steemit, just with less people, and those that are still here will be very grumpy.

Sorry for ranting on your post @dragosroua, but this is really beginning to annoy me. This place held so much promise and I can see it being destroyed by willful, greedy, spiteful children. And that is a crying shame.

No need to apologize, Trevor. I feel the same.

I think you right on this one.

Forrest Gump. According to first google hit :D

You had to google that? he said it at the bench! ;)

Yes. I have seen that on the picture google showed.

You mean I should have KNOWN that?

You know, first I don't watch movies much. Hollywood movies are mostly boring, and this one is I think one of the most boring types, right? Someone does the impossible by sweating much. b-o-ring!

Second I would have watched it in German and who knows what he said in translation.

Third who says that the guy in the film is the first one who said that? For all you know he could have quoted Sartre (Bot not Aristotle, because of chocolate - too old)

1 Steem should be in your wallet now, congrats!

Thank you!

Having money does not make happy, but you have a lot less to worry about.

That's hilariously true :)

This feels a bit like the pump that happened last July when the first payments were made. That one went all the way to $4, so lets see if this one lasts, or people start selling into it.

P.S. Do tell us your theories on the pump - what have you got to lose? :-)

Volume seems bigger than the one in July.

No downvotes :) Are you disappointed?

I don't believe either that experiment and spike are related. It may be something completely different. (Where is this half of the phrase coming from?)

I can only speak for myself, of course, but I do think that we are taking all this too seriously. We are like peons on a chessboard, dispensable. Cannonfodder.

This is starting to remind me on the situation with Bubblews. I'll point you to my very first post here: https://steemit.com/steem/@ervin-lemark/is-steemit-yet-another-bubblews

Check the answers!

Yes, I feel a bit neglected :))

:) Good morning.

I already did two things this morning:

  • sold all my liquid Steem at 22K Satoshi
  • did a 12 km run with 300 height meters

Feeling good :)

What about your running?

Good for you catching that wave at 22k satoshi!

My running is going well, picking up on volume during March. Keeping my average walk/run at 10k/day, while still going MAF, meaning running very slow.

That's great to hear. We both have some distance ahead of us this year :)

All the best!!!

I stay watching if this speculation in Steem will be collected in the very short term or not.

There might be a correction, but things are very complex now.

Like I said, I have a few theories, but without facts, they will be only speculation and I don't want to add more to the pile that's already engulfing us.

that's fair. I am in the same lacking of informations about almost every thing I read about Steemit. but I'm well aware of it :)

So why is correlation not causation?

It's a hint to another post I wrote a couple a days ago with the similar title.

But in this case, it looks like (correlation) the experiment generated the spike (causation). Which in my opinion is not true. I might be wrong, obviously.

STEEM going up! Woo!

Upvoted

@shayne