Is there a formula to measure the expected value a blogger will bring to Steem?
When we are talking about companies we know that there is a very useful formula. This formula allows us to calculate the expected total return of any stock. The formula steps are outlined below:
- Find the initial cost of the investment.
- Find the total amount of dividends or interest paid during the investment period.
- Find the closing sales price of the investment.
- Add sum of dividends and or interest to the closing price.
- Dividend this number by the initial investment cost and subtract 1.
Just by following these steps is the rational way for determining the expected return for any stock.
When trying to determine the expected value of a blogger we have to recognize this is different than trying to determine the expected value of an account. This is also not easy to determine because you have to know a lot about what the blogger can bring to the platform and the ways the blogger might add value to the platform in the future which is maybe impossible to predict accurately. So we cannot ever know for sure what any particular blogger will be worth to Steem but perhaps we can look at what the blogger has done in the past in terms of content provided.
First we would have to determine which set of metrics to track. Which metric best tracks the value a blogger is providing to Steem? Some could say it is upvotes but these upvotes by bots or by whales may allow some to say that upvotes do not accurately measure the value a blogger brings to Steem. This means upvote metrics are inadequate. What about the amount of new participants a particular blogger can bring to Steem? This would be much more accurate but without a referral program set up we do not have a way to track this metric as far as I know. It is also possible that bloggers can bring a lot of new people to Steem but still post topics which are disliked by whales.
Let's search for the metric which tracks the amount of value a participant brings to Steem
I do not have this metric. The purpose of this post was to propose the question of whether or not it is possible to determine using math how much expected value a blogger can bring. Facebook has determined that each user of their site is worth as much as $200. Steem bloggers may have more or less value to Steem depending on what topics they blog about, how much specialized knowledge they have, who they know, how attractive they are physically or by charisma, what talents they have, and much much more. Because it's not easy to determine intangible value and this is often intangible, this is a difficult question.
People who have backgrouns in math should feel free to comment. If you think there can be a metric to determine an expected value for an average blogger on Steem as a baseline then let me know. This baseline could be used to determine how much more some bloggers earn beyond this average. Then we can rely on more advanced metrics to determine if these bloggers add as much value to be worth what they earn. This is also useful to bloggers because bloggers could learn which topics, activities, are adding the most value to the Steem platform, and can adjust in a way so as to add more value and earn greater rewards.
In other words, if value is subjectively measured then which metric supports the consensus of that subjective measurement if not upvotes? Most importantly how do we use predictive analytics to create expectations?
I can't agree more !!! UPvotes can't determine a person's worth here.
Well a person with already many followers on another social platform proves that he/she can bring them to steem !!! The other way is to look at their content. It doesn't matter how much effort or time they put it, what matters is that IF THEIR CONTENT IS WORTH ATTRACTING PEOPLE FROM OUTSIDE STEEM!! If the content is helping others in ANY WAY, the people will automatically get attracted and come to their blog !!
I don't have a good math background but still I think my point is pretty logical here. We CAN make steemit a platform of amazing hidden talent, knowledge and wisdom ONLY IF WE SUPPORT THOSE BLOGGERS WHO POST ABOUT IT. Not people who put shit posts !!!
I believe ANY CONTENT that is helping someone somehow will add value to steemit. And that should become the purpose of steemit, that's how it can grow like a revolution and attract more people. People need to rely on steemit NOT JUST TO EARN but also to find relevant information and reading content.
Himshweta,
You said, "what matters is that IF THEIR CONTENT IS WORTH ATTRACTING PEOPLE FROM OUTSIDE STEEM!!"
This is the crux of the matter. I am new to Steemit, yet I have already started posting my twitter posts @iamwesley clark, on steemit, and then reposting to twitter, to attrack my followers and others to steemit.
My next step is incorporating my instagram posts (@iamwesleyclark) and have a link at the bottom of each post pointing to my steemit account.
I was fortunate enough to read via a google search about steemit and recently became part of the community. The more I get involved the more I see the potential and basically I really like what I see.
So, my role will be that of evangelist of steemit, and do my part to make those around me and in my other accounts aware of steemit. I have even started to post to my linkedin account as well.
Anyway, bottom line, I agree with you.
I am personally worth one million dollars, it is the rest of you that drag the average value down...
But seriously, I cannot see estimating this with any accuracy. I do not think it is a question of math. There are to many factors that depend on subjective humans, like many a things in economics. I am not a big fan of econometrics in general.
What may determine someone’s worth is their work and the effort they put in on this platform . Someone famous joins and they post a simple picture and recieve a 500$ payout , does that really determine their worth ?
I used to work day and night on this paltform to get to this level and respect . Maybe that’s how we could see it as one way
The thing with votes is that if the user uses bidbots that would make it’s value as an user bigger than what it is.
Perhaps the best way will be to take into account 3 things: number of votes (even if they can be affected by bid bots), average number and length of comments received per post, average visits received per posts).
But finding an specific objective number per user would be impossible. For some people art posts might be of huge value while for others they might be worthless.
You cannot objectively answer your question, specially because the votes will always be subjective, and one way or another votes needs to be taken into account.
An individual can bring so many things to Steemit, they can bring innovative thought, refinement in thought and or action, experiences, new realms to discover, varying thoughts on same subjects, networking, etc. To pin it down to a formula may be near impossible, but it will always be recognizable when it occurs.
Facebook has a benchmark for this tho: advertising sales. I also think the $200 is yearly value, the lifetime value of a FB addict is undoubtedly much higher, especially given that everything is designed to be as addictive as possible and that the news feeds advertising sales are NOT shared with publishers, unlike ads in for example instant articles.
It is very difficult to estimate any LTV of any user on a platform like Steem without having any benchmark whatsoever. If Ned gets what he wants, then we will be able to do so because in his vision advertising (brand profiles) will become a big thing on Steem.
But until we implement at the very least of model of native advertising (think in feed), there is nothing to benchmark against. Unless you want to take the STEEM marketcap and divide it by number of active users.
@dana-Edwards i don’t think so, I think at any time sobeboy could go from not very interesting to finding their passion, they could easily defy patterns. People who are popular may not be able to sustain that if they aren't creative enough to hold up that value. So that’s what makes humanity special. Entropy and chaos. It’s beautiful.
complicated subject to me....
There's no way to really know this without looking and trying out a few to see what is statistically significant. I would be pretty interested to find it. You could also throw some neural net magic at it with as many metrics as you can thing of and see what comes back as a predictor.
So a first step would be to get as many people / companies as you can that are already here to supply the information that is not on the blockchain, as you said "how much specialized knowledge they have, who they know, how attractive they are physically or by charisma, what talents they have..." and supplement this with an independent "fuzzy" analysis of their general persona.
Being a social scientist rather than an statistical analyst or mathametician, I fear there is just too much subjectivity in the human condition to achieve objective results from some of these lines of enquiry, as you have noted.
Notwithstanding, I would still be fascinated to see what the results are and how these disciplines bring their various tools to bear on these questions.
Great issues, can't wait to see the outcomes!