You got to remember there is a third trading factor. Market makers/players with big influence can move markets at their will. I've read some articles about big shadow players moving markets in Bitcoin as well. This has happened in traditional long standing markets as well. Remember from a statistical level cyprotos have basically no real data. Asset classes with long data sets are constantly used to predict the future and can be just as wrong. I know you quoted the 200 day moving average but I'd be interested in the standard deviation of that 200 day moving average. We use that in stocks but it really only relevant if you have years of data and can compare it against its peer group stocks that may have even longer track records. I really like steem because your earning it. You have to do the work and put in the time. Bitcoin at this point, I feel is people trying to get rich quick. The track record of that is very clear and very bad for investors!