Week 4 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!

in #sports8 years ago (edited)

New week, same top two players

Specifically Drew Brees, who is projected to have yet another monster week with a favorible matchup at the Chargers. He just gets barely above Cam Newton, who himself has another great match with the Falcons. My overall top ten after that? All quarterbacks, most with great matchups against suspect defenses. It really is going to be tough to decide exactly which one to pick when you start stacking your lineups this week, and could really make an argument for just about all.

My best bet? I still love Brees, especially against a San Diego team that historically plays terrible when they are at home. Also, who exactly has the Bears secondary shut down this year? Thinking Stafford might be a steal this week, but a common stack with a guy like Marvin Jones or Golden Tate.

If you are looking for a super sneaky stack, Andy Dalton and AJ Green were both ranked in the top five in their respective positions for me, and have a favorable match against a weaker defense this week.


Defensive Data - Now 2016 only!

I have now the minimum amount of data points to rank defenses based on the 2016 season only. Therefore, starting this week, I am only using 2016 fantasy information to rank teams as strong or weak. Remember, the algorithm doesn't care about game points, it cares about fantasy points. If a defense tends to make my projections overestimates, they are awesome at what they do.

I have many movers and shakers, and even some surprises with this information.

Consider the Texans as a curious example. They got smashed by the Patriots last Thursday night, but the algorithm still likes how they are performing on average versus a standard player projection. It also likes a divisional match against the Titans at home that could be a low scoring low yardage affair.

Rounding out the top five D's are your usual suspects, with not too many surprises. Philadelphia has to be considered legit at this point, but the season wearing on will determine how elite they can stay. Note, they also have a bye week this week, so look for them to remain in the top ten next week as well.


The return of Le'Veon Bell

I just don't know what to make of it, and neither does the algorithm. I have him currently as the #25 RB, and a virtual stay away player at his current hefty price tag. If he had a better matchup, I would take a flier on him, but the Chiefs have been playing pretty tough this season so far. I totally believe he will rack up more points than DeAngelo Williams, as he is the feature back and truly elite. Just how many that is depends on the circumstances of the day.

If you believe he is getting an enormous amount of touches and looks and are looking for a more aggressive estimate, I have his 99th percentile performance possibility at 17.7 points. This would place in certainly in the top tier, and firmly as the #1 RB overall. The game this week should be telling for his rankings in weeks to come.


The Siemian Effect - Two DEN WR's in the Top 5

Demaryius Thomas having a great Week 3, and Emmanual Sanders continuing to do really well helped both their causes this week. Playing a TB secondary that is really rough right now also helps. The algorithm loves the Broncos in all phases, and rewards both potent offensive matchups this week with a high points projection.

Antonio Brown is sliding down the rankings some as the result of his less than perfect play these first three weeks. He had been projected to be Hercules, but is slowly coming back down to more realistic expectations. The same could be said of Julio Jones after a poor Week 3 showing at the Saints.


The Week 4 Algorithm Draft Kings Optimal Lineup Thurs.-Mon.

Inputting all of my projected points, salaries, and projections in my custom solver yields the following "optimal" lineup for Week 4:

Look, I never would start constructing a lineup with two receivers on the same team. But, the computer loves the trajectory and matchup with TB this week, so I will ride it out. I don't believe I will be doing so in any other of my lineups though.

A lot of love has also been given to Coby Fleener, though as a Colts fan, I would be cautious about putting all your eggs in his basket before seeing a larger sample size in New Orleans. He drops way too many balls, and his biggest consistency point from a fantasy perspective has been his inconsistency. He draws a great match this week with the Chargers, so I understand the computer love.

Many of you are probably shaking your heads at Matt Forte, especially against the Seahawks. But, consider just how many potential carries Forte is going to receive, consider it is a home match, and consider this is an early game against a west coast team coming across three time zones for an east cost 1 PM start. I like all those factors, and can get behind this placement as well.

Finally, what else is there to say about Pryor? He gets the Redskins this week, rated dead last in my overall DST standings as the worst fantasy defense in the league. This is especially tasty if he continues to get multiple looks at multiple positions on Sunday.


Want to use the solver?

You can too! It can be found here, in a shared file through Dropbox.

This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 4 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values, this is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.


REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment! For reminders on how these rankings are generated, please check out my other fantasy pieces here.

Time for my model!

This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.

My Top QB's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
10Drew BreesQBNOSD25.6760029
20Cam NewtonQBCARATL25.6780031
3+2Matthew StaffordQBDETCHI22.2730017
4+3Ryan TannehillQBMIACIN21.9580020
5+5Andy DaltonQBCINMIA20.7610028
6-2Matt RyanQBATLCAR20.5700014
7+2Blake BortlesQBJAXIND20.4640030
8+8Carson PalmerQBARILA20.4630027
9+5Philip RiversQBSDNO20.2690021
10-7Andrew LuckQBINDJAX19.8740010
11+1Joe FlaccoQBBALOAK19.8590026
12+5Alex SmithQBKCPIT19.2560018
13+7Kirk CousinsQBWASCLE18.7650025
14-3Russell WilsonQBSEANYJ18.2660015
15N/ABrian HoyerQBCHIDET16.8500024
16+10Dak PrescottQBDALSF16.7570023
17-11Ben RoethlisbergerQBPITKC16.671002
18+11Trevor SiemianQBDENTB16.5540019
190Jameis WinstonQBTBDEN16.054005
20-5Eli ManningQBNYGMIN15.861004
21-8Derek CarrQBOAKBAL15.767006
22-1Blaine GabbertQBSFDAL15.7500016
23-5Sam BradfordQBMINNYG14.651009
24N/AAJ McCarronQBCINMIA14.3500028
25-1Tyrod TaylorQBBUFNE14.2540011
26N/ARyan MallettQBBALOAK14.1500026
27N/AColin KaepernickQBSFDAL13.5500016
28-6Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJSEA13.053008
29-2Case KeenumQBLAARI11.150007
30N/AEJ ManuelQBBUFNE11.0500011
31-3Brock OsweilerQBHOUTEN10.9580013
32-9Marcus MariotaQBTENHOU10.555001
33N/AJacoby BrissettQBNEBUF8.5510012

My Top RB's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
10Matt ForteRBNYJSEA17.566008
2+7David JohnsonRBARILA17.0780027
3+1LeSean McCoyRBBUFNE15.7670011
4+11Mark IngramRBNOSD15.1590029
5+18Jeremy HillRBCINMIA14.7410028
6-3DeMarco MurrayRBTENHOU14.668001
7+9Giovani BernardRBCINMIA14.3470028
8-2CJ AndersonRBDENTB14.1650019
9+9Ezekiel ElliottRBDALSF14.1690023
10-2Melvin GordonRBSDNO13.9630021
11+8Isaiah CrowellRBCLEWAS13.8440032
12+2TJ YeldonRBJAXIND13.5460030
13-2Devonta FreemanRBATLCAR12.8550014
14+24Carlos HydeRBSFDAL12.6420016
15+13Spencer WareRBKCPIT12.6570018
16+17Duke JohnsonRBCLEWAS12.5400032
17-12Lamar MillerRBHOUTEN12.2700013
18+8Theo RiddickRBDETCHI11.9520017
19-17DeAngelo WilliamsRBPITKC11.862002
20+7LeGarrette BlountRBNEBUF11.7500012
21-14Frank GoreRBINDJAX11.6520010
22+8Justin ForsettRBBALOAK11.5380026
23-10Chris JohnsonRBARILA11.3340027
24N/AChris IvoryRBJAXIND11.0370030
25N/ALe'Veon BellRBPITKC10.875002
26-5Todd GurleyRBLAARI10.967007
27+4Tevin ColemanRBATLCAR10.6450014
28+22Fozzy WhittakerRBCARATL10.4390031
29+6Matt JonesRBWASCLE10.3430025
30+10Alfred MorrisRBDALSF10.3390023
31+11Christine MichaelRBSEANYJ10.1600015
32+2Terrance WestRBBALOAK10.0340026
33N/ACameron Artis-PayneRBCARATL9.8340031
34+21Andre EllingtonRBARILA9.5320027
35+11Travaris CadetRBNOSD9.2310029
36+1Tim HightowerRBNOSD9.1330029
37-5Charcandrick WestRBKCPIT8.9340018
38N/AJordan HowardRBCHIDET8.6370024
39-27Latavius MurrayRBOAKBAL8.649006
40N/ADexter McClusterRBSDNO8.3350021
41+2Chris ThompsonRBWASCLE8.2340025
42-13Charles SimsRBTBDEN8.056005
43+2Reggie BushRBSFNE7.4300011
44N/ADamien WilliamsRBMIACIN6.9300020
45-4Bilal PowellRBNYJSEA6.833008
46-2Jay AjayiRBMIACIN6.8400020
47+7Lance DunbarRBDALSF6.6300023
48N/AKenyan DrakeRBMIACIN6.6360020
49-1James WhiteRBNEBUF6.1360012
50N/AIsaiah PeadRBMIACIN5.9300020
51+11Shaun DraughnRBSFDAL5.8330016
52+18Dwayne WashingtonRBDETCHI5.7380017
53N/ADevontae BookerRBDENTB5.6300019
54N/AJonathan GrimesRBHOUTEN4.9300013
55+9Alfred BlueRBHOUTEN4.5310013
56N/AZach ZennerRBDETCHI4.5300017
57-6Jerick McKinnonRBMINNYG4.239009
58N/AKapri BibbsRBDENTB3.9300019
59-3Matt AsiataRBMINNYG3.933009
60+7Brandon BoldenRBNEBUF3.8300012
61+4Mike GillisleeRBBUFNE3.7300011
62-15Jalen RichardRBOAKBAL3.434006
63-10Josh FergusonRBINDJAX3.4300010
64-7Robert TurbinRBINDJAX3.1300010
65-5Deandre WashingtonRBOAKBAL2.433006
66N/ABobby RaineyRBNYGMIN1.930004
67-1Orleans DarkwaRBNYGMIN1.630004
68N/AJacquizz RodgersRBTBDEN1.330005
69-20Derrick HenryRBTENHOU1.235001
70N/ATaiwan JonesRBOAKBAL0.230006
71-3Fitzgerald ToussaintRBPITKC-0.830002

My Top WR's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
1+4AJ GreenWRCINMIA19.3850028
2+6Demaryius ThomasWRDENTB18.5670019
3+4Larry FitzgeraldWRARILA18.3720027
4-3Antonio BrownWRPITKC17.597002
5+13Emmanuel SandersWRDENTB17.1640019
6+14Allen RobinsonWRJAXIND16.9800030
7-5Julio JonesWRATLCAR16.7920014
8+24Terrelle PryorWRCLEWAS16.6430032
9+3Brandin CooksWRNOSD16.3740029
10-1Alshon JefferyWRCHIDET16.3750024
11+6Jarvis LandryWRMIACIN16.2690020
12+11Kelvin BenjaminWRCARATL16.0710031
13+6Dez BryantWRDALSF15.5790023
14+1Jeremy MaclinWRKCPIT15.1600018
15+26Marvin JonesWRDETCHI14.8730017
16+19DeSean JacksonWRWASCLE14.6620025
17-14Brandon MarshallWRNYJSEA14.070008
18+20Steve SmithWRBALOAK14.0450026
19+3Doug BaldwinWRSEANYJ13.8610015
20-14DeAndre HopkinsWRHOUTEN13.7840013
21-8Mike EvansWRTBDEN13.665005
22+6Anquan BoldinWRDETCHI13.6420017
23-2Allen HurnsWRJAXIND13.5480030
24+15Mike WallaceWRBALOAK13.5520026
25+5Pierre GarconWRWASCLE13.4400025
26+10Michael FloydWRARILA13.3510027
27+24Jamison CrowderWRWASCLE13.1420025
28-12Julian EdelmanWRNEBUF12.9580012
29-19Odell Beckham JrWRNYGMIN12.987004
30+13Travis BenjaminWRSDNO12.8590021
31+15Brandon LaFellWRCINMIA12.6320028
32-21Eric DeckerWRNYJSEA12.463008
33-2TY HiltonWRINDJAX12.4700010
34+3Devante ParkerWRMIACIN12.3520020
35+39Michael ThomasWRNOSD11.9380029
36+4Golden TateWRDETCHI11.8580017
37+10Eddie RoyalWRCHIDET11.7350024
38+27Terrance WilliamsWRDALSF11.7310023
39+36John BrownWRARILA11.5430027
40+28Cole BeasleyWRDALSF11.5390023
41+42Devin FunchessWRCARATL11.4360031
42+45Marqise LeeWRJAXIND10.9310030
43-1Torrey SmithWRSFDAL10.6390016
44-19Stefon DiggsWRMINNYG10.461009
45+33Brandon ColemanWRNOSD10.4300029
46+44Kevin WhiteWRCHIDET10.3340024
47+22Andrew HawkinsWRCLEWAS10.2300032
48+7Kenny StillsWRMIACIN10.1350020
49+8Tyrell WilliamsWRSDNO9.9440021
50+36Ted GinnWRCARATL9.9370031
51-18Michael CrabtreeWROAKBAL9.864006
52-18Amari CooperWROAKBAL9.776006
53-3Kamar AikenWRBALOAK9.7300026
54-28Will FullerWRHOUTEN9.6530013
55+50Tyler BoydWRCINMIA9.4340028
56+44Corey BrownWRCARATL9.4300031
57+7Tavon AustinWRLAARI8.540007
58-9Sterling ShepardWRNYGMIN8.458004
59-6Mohamed SanuWRATLCAR8.1570014
60+1Dontrelle InmanWRSDNO8.0330021
61+12Robert WoodsWRBUFNE7.9340011
62+5Tyler LockettWRSEANYJ7.9390015
63+16Danny AmendolaWRNEBUF7.8360012
64-19Vincent JacksonWRTBDEN7.634005
65+42Rashad GreeneWRJAXIND7.6300030
66+29Jeremy KerleyWRSFDAL7.5340016
67+13Chris ConleyWRKCPIT7.5300018
68N/AJosh BellamyWRCHIDET7.5300024
69+19Ryan GrantWRWASCLE7.5300025
70-22Victor CruzWRNYGMIN7.346004
71-12Kenny BrittWRLAARI7.139007
72-9Jermaine KearseWRSEANYJ7.1320015
73+4Albert WilsonWRKCPIT6.9300018
74+30Jordan NorwoodWRDENTB6.8300019
75N/AGriff WhalenWRINDNO6.8300021
76+26Brice ButlerWRDALSF6.8300023
77+19Breshad PerrimanWRBALOAK6.5300026
78+13Chris HoganWRNEBUF6.5370012
79-35Andre JohnsonWRTENHOU6.332001
80N/AQuincy EnunwaWRNYJSEA6.244008
81+17Quinton PattonWRSFDAL6.1300016
82N/AMarquise GoodwinWRBUFNE5.8300011
83N/AJames WrightWRCINMIA5.8300028
84+1Paul RichardsonWRSEANYJ5.7300015
85N/ADeonte ThompsonWRCHIDET5.6300024
86N/ACameron MeredithWRCHIDET5.6300024
87-17Seth RobertsWROAKBAL5.435006
88+5Justin HardyWRATLCAR5.3300014
89N/AAdam HumphriesWRTBDEN5.030005
90-14Phillip DorsettWRINDJAX4.9470010
91+10Jaelen StrongWRHOUTEN4.9310013
92N/ACody LatimerWRDENTB4.7300019
93+1Adam ThielenWRMINNYG4.631009
94N/AJarius WrightWRMINNYG4.430009
95N/ABennie FowlerWRDENTB4.0300019
96-40Tajae SharpeWRTENHOU3.950001
97+6Brian QuickWRLAARI3.930007
98N/AMalcolm MitchellWRNEBUF3.6300012
99-15Andre HolmesWROAKBAL3.230006
100+6Charles JohnsonWRMINNYG2.930009
101-29Rishard MatthewsWRTENHOU2.531001
102-42Eli RogersWRPITKC2.535002
103-11Sammie CoatesWRPITKC2.036002
104N/ARussell ShepardWRTBDEN0.030005

My Top TE's:

RankChangePlayerPosTeamOppMyModelSalaryOppDefRank
10Greg OlsenTECARATL16.4600031
2+5Julius ThomasTEJAXIND13.5440030
3+10Coby FleenerTENOSD13.3320029
4+1Jason WittenTEDALSF12.7450023
5-3Jordan ReedTEWASCLE12.7630025
6-2Jimmy GrahamTESEANYJ12.4400015
7+4Gary BarnidgeTECLEWAS11.8360032
8+1Travis KelceTEKCPIT11.8480018
9+18Zach MillerTECHIDET11.3270024
10N/ARob GronkowskiTENEBUF11.0650012
11+1Dennis PittaTEBALOAK10.5390026
12-6Martellus BennettTENEBUF10.4350012
13+11Eric EbronTEDETCHI9.8370017
140Kyle RudolphTEMINNYG9.234009
15+3Vernon DavisTEWASCLE8.9250025
16+19Jermaine GreshamTEARILA8.7250027
17+5Maxx WilliamsTEBALOAK8.4250026
18+25Marcedes LewisTEJAXIND8.3250030
19+21Darren FellsTEARILA8.1250027
20+25Tyler KroftTECINMIA7.7250028
21-6Charles ClayTEBUFNE7.5260011
22+7Crockett GillmoreTEBALOAK7.0250026
23-7Jacob TammeTEATLCAR6.9340014
24+29CJ UzomahTECINMIA6.9250028
25+26Ed DicksonTECARATL6.8250031
26N/AHunter HenryTESDNO6.4270021
27+9Dion SimsTEMIACIN6.0250020
28N/AScott SimonsonTECARATL5.7250031
29-10Dwayne AllenTEINDJAX5.7380010
30N/ASean McGrathTESDNO5.6250021
31+7Vance McDonaldTESFDAL5.5270016
32N/ANiles PaulTEWASCLE5.4250025
33+1Demetrius HarrisTEKCPIT5.3250018
34+18Logan PaulsenTEWASDET5.2250024
35+12Gavin EscobarTEDALSF5.1250023
36+14Geoff SwaimTEDALSF4.6250023
37+12Ryan GriffinTEHOUTEN4.6260013
38+3Luke WillsonTESEANYJ4.6250015
39-13Lance KendricksTELAARI4.626007
40-10Jack DoyleTEINDJAX4.5250010
41+3Garrett CelekTESFDAL4.4250016
42N/ABlake BellTESFDAL4.3250016
43N/AJohn PhillipsTEDENTB4.2250019
44N/AJames O'ShaughnessyTEKCPIT4.1250018
45-8Cameron BrateTETBDEN4.028005
46-21Clive WalfordTEOAKBAL3.827006
47-5Austin HooperTEATLCAR3.4250014
48-31Larry DonnellTENYGMIN3.126004
49-29Will TyeTENYGMIN3.026004
50N/ALevine ToiloloTEATLCAR2.9250014
51N/ACole WickTEDETCHI2.9250017
52N/AClay HarborTENEBUF2.8250012
53N/AJim DrayTEBUFNE2.7250011
54-23Brandon MyersTETBDEN2.625005
55N/AStephen AndersonTEHOUTEN2.5250013
56N/ACJ FiedorowiczTEHOUTEN2.2250013
57N/ALee SmithTEOAKBAL1.725006
58-30Jesse JamesTEPITKC1.331002
59-13Rhett EllisonTEMINNYG1.225009
60-27Anthony FasanoTETENHOU1.025001
61N/AJace AmaroTETENHOU1.026001
62N/AKellen DavisTENYJSEA0.225008
63N/APhillip SupernawTETENHOU0.025001

My Top DST's:

Bye weeks this week: PHI and GB

RankChangeTeamPercentile
1+6HOU0.970
2+10KC0.959
3+23PHI0.914
4-2MIN0.903
5+3DEN0.902
6+7BAL0.839
7-6ARI0.800
8+2SEA0.799
9+19NYG0.794
10+17JAX0.701
11-7NE0.629
12+11BUF0.605
13+12TEN0.603
14-11CAR0.562
15+3NYJ0.506
16-10DAL0.442
17+5CHI0.292
18+12PIT0.268
190TB0.259
20-6CIN0.253
21+11NO0.250
22-17GB0.231
23+8SF0.220
24-9DET0.189
25-1CLE0.166
26-5OAK0.155
27-7LA0.108
28+1MIA0.107
29-18SD0.091
30-21IND0.089
31-15ATL0.072
32-15WAS0.072

Sort:  

Does the Home-Away split on Drew Brees performance scares you?

Not necessarily this week because of just how weak the Chargers are on D. But, it would scare me against the Vikes or Patriots though for sure.

great call on aj green. I bet your algorithm has Julio up there next after the 12-300-1 line.