Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy Football Analysis - Positions, Salaries, Projected Point Values, Rankings and More!

Week 1 is in the books! Time to fire up the algorithm with some new information!

Granted, we don't have much comparatively to add, but we do have new information on a brand new season! And my algorithm loves new information. I have adjusted the Gamma distributions for every NFL player and have cranked the new expected numbers for Week 2.

First, a few reminders:

This algorithm uses as its baseline metric performances for a player from 2013 to the last current NFL week. The set of all in game performances in this data set are my priors.
I use Draft Kings scoring to determine historical fantasy points.
My algorithm MUST have significant prior information to make projections on a player for any given week. If you do not see a rookie you are looking for on my list, below are historical average rookie performances since 2008 below for your review:
I use the priors for each player and fit a well known distribution (Gamma Distribution) curve to establish quantiles for that player.
I use the 75% number as an aggressive estimate for each player.
I remove outlier points from my data set, and include extra factors, like red zone utilization and targets/touches.
I account for players that have soft matchups against weak defensive opponents that historically give up more fantasy points per game on a rolling 8 game average.
And, as always,

THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!

I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment!

The Lineup Optimizer

This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 2 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.

Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values.

For instance, if a player is not starting, set their points to 0. If you believe a player has a better matchup than I predicted, add projected points. I am finding that a historically terrible defense is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6-7 point adjustment in a player's favor.

Play around! Add some points!

This is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.

Time for my model!

This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.

My top QB's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	+1	Drew Brees	QB	NO	NYG	23.4	8200	28
2	-1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	SF	22.1	7900	31
3	0	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	DEN	22.0	7700	8
4	0	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	LA	20.6	7400	20
5	0	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	CIN	20.3	7500	14
6	+1	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	TEN	19.9	7300	25
7	+3	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	MIN	19.5	7800	2
8	+5	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	DAL	19.3	7000	6
9	+10	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	OAK	19.0	6800	21
10	-1	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	CLE	18.6	6500	24
11	+11	Alex Smith	QB	KC	HOU	18.5	6300	7
12	+4	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	ATL	18.3	7200	16
13	+1	Ryan Tannehill	QB	MIA	NE	18.2	5600	4
14	+10	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	PIT	18.0	6400	30
15	-3	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	JAX	18.0	6400	27
16	-1	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	ARI	18.0	6200	1
17	+1	Sam Bradford	QB	PHI	GB	18.0	5600	5
18	-12	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	NO	17.5	7600	32
19	-11	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	SD	17.2	6700	11
20	+6	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	DET	16.3	6000	15
21	-1	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	TB	16.3	6900	19
22	-1	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	PHI	16.0	5700	26
23	N/A	Josh McCown	QB	CLE	BAL	15.5	5000	13
24	-13	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	NYJ	BUF	15.2	6100	23
25	+3	Blaine Gabbert	QB	SF	CAR	14.9	5000	3
26	+1	Case Keenum	QB	LA	SEA	13.5	5100	10
27	-10	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BUF	NYJ	12.2	6300	18
28	+1	Brock Osweiler	QB	HOU	KC	12.2	6100	12
29	+2	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	NE	MIA	4.8	5900	29

My top RB's:

I know Jamaal Charles is probably not playing again. I left him here though to demonstrate his significance to the Chiefs if he was to play. Spencer Ware is most likely getting a lot of these points.

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	+1	Matt Forte	RB	NYJ	BUF	18.7	6600	23
2	+2	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	HOU	18.2	6300	7
3	+16	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT	CIN	16.9	7100	14
4	-3	Arian Foster	RB	MIA	NE	16.7	6000	4
5	+13	DeMarco Murray	RB	TEN	DET	15.2	5700	15
6	+3	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	NYJ	15.0	6500	18
7	+8	Danny Woodhead	RB	SD	JAX	14.7	5200	27
8	-5	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	GB	14.2	7000	5
9	+2	David Johnson	RB	ARI	TB	14.1	7600	19
10	+3	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	MIN	13.4	6000	2
11	-3	Todd Gurley	RB	LA	SEA	12.9	7500	10
12	+10	Doug Martin	RB	TB	ARI	11.9	5900	1
13	-7	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	OAK	11.9	6100	21
14	-4	Lamar Miller	RB	HOU	KC	11.6	7200	12
15	+5	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	ATL	11.2	5700	16
16	+29	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI	CHI	11.0	5800	22
17	-3	Frank Gore	RB	IND	DEN	10.6	5000	8
18	-11	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	NYG	10.4	6200	28
19	+4	Thomas Rawls	RB	SEA	LA	10.4	5500	20
20	-15	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	NO	9.8	5600	32
21	0	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	BAL	9.7	4400	13
22	+6	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	CHI	9.6	3800	22
23	+2	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN	PIT	9.2	4300	30
24	+14	CJ Anderson	RB	DEN	IND	9.1	6800	9
25	-1	TJ Yeldon	RB	JAX	SD	9.0	4700	11
26	+29	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF	CAR	8.9	5100	3
27	-10	Alfred Morris	RB	DAL	WAS	8.7	3600	17
28	+2	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	NO	8.6	3800	32
29	N/A	Justin Forsett	RB	BAL	CLE	8.6	4400	24
30	+2	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	BAL	8.4	4500	13
31	-4	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	BUF	8.2	4000	23
32	+1	Javorius Allen	RB	BAL	CLE	8.1	3100	24
33	+13	Spencer Ware	RB	KC	HOU	8.1	6100	7
34	-8	Charles Sims	RB	TB	ARI	8.0	4400	1
35	-23	Tim Hightower	RB	NO	NYG	7.9	3800	28
36	-5	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	PIT	7.8	4200	30
37	+2	Chris Ivory	RB	NYJ	SD	7.6	4100	11
38	-4	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	SF	7.6	5400	31
39	-2	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	TEN	7.5	4300	25
40	+8	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD	JAX	7.4	4800	27
41	+3	Jerick McKinnon	RB	MIN	GB	7.2	3700	5
42	+14	Terrance West	RB	BAL	CLE	7.1	3300	24
43	+14	Chris Thompson	RB	WAS	DAL	7.0	3700	6
44	+16	Christine Michael	RB	SEA	LA	6.9	4600	20
45	+4	Matt Jones	RB	WAS	DAL	6.8	4500	6
46	N/A	Reggie Bush	RB	SF	NYJ	6.6	3200	18
47	-5	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	TEN	6.5	4900	25
48	N/A	Lance Dunbar	RB	DAL	WAS	6.5	3000	17
49	-14	Charcandrick West	RB	KC	HOU	6.4	3500	7
50	-14	James Starks	RB	GB	MIN	6.3	4000	2
51	N/A	Travaris Cadet	RB	NO	NYG	6.1	3000	28
52	+2	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	OAK	6.1	4500	21
53	+5	Jeremy Langford	RB	CHI	PHI	6.1	4600	26
54	-1	Shaun Draughn	RB	SF	CAR	5.8	3700	3
55	-15	Chris Johnson	RB	ARI	TB	5.4	3700	19
56	-5	Benjamin Cunningham	RB	LA	SEA	5.4	3700	10
57	-10	James White	RB	NE	MIA	4.8	4000	29
58	-17	Alfred Blue	RB	HOU	KC	4.8	3400	12
59	0	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	MIA	4.3	4000	29
60	N/A	Mike Gillislee	RB	BUF	NYJ	4.1	3400	18
61	N/A	Kenjon Barner	RB	PHI	CHI	3.9	3000	22
62	N/A	Denard Robinson	RB	JAX	SD	3.8	3100	11
63	-20	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	TB	3.8	3900	19
64	N/A	Fozzy Whittaker	RB	CAR	SF	2.1	3000	31
65	N/A	Damien Williams	RB	MIA	NE	2.1	3000	4
66	N/A	Fitzgerald Toussaint	RB	PIT	CIN	2.1	3500	14
67	-5	Jay Ajayi	RB	MIA	NE	1.4	3700	4
68	-7	Robert Turbin	RB	IND	DEN	1.3	3000	8
69	N/A	Brandon Bolden	RB	NE	MIA	1.0	3000	29
70	N/A	Ka'Deem Carey	RB	CHI	PHI	0.8	3100	26
71	N/A	Orleans Darkwa	RB	NYG	NO	-0.7	3000	32

My Top WR's:

I predict Antonio Brown is going to be a $10,000 player starting next week. Not exactly a novel prediction, but I think a good one nonetheless. He is going to be getting his touches and touchdowns in a key rivalry game this week.

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	0	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	CIN	22.6	9900	14
2	0	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	OAK	19.4	9200	21
3	+6	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	CHI	17.0	6900	22
4	0	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	BUF	17.0	7500	23
5	0	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	MIN	16.4	7500	2
6	+9	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	NYG	16.3	8000	28
7	+6	AJ Green	WR	CIN	PIT	16.2	8900	30
8	-5	Odell Beckham Jr	WR	NYG	NO	15.9	9500	32
9	-3	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	IND	15.0	6400	9
10	+1	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	LA	14.8	6600	20
11	-3	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	KC	14.8	8700	12
12	-2	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	IND	14.4	6000	9
13	-1	Mike Evans	WR	TB	ARI	14.2	7200	1
14	+21	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	DAL	14.1	6300	6
15	-8	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	NYJ	14.0	7300	18
16	+2	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC	HOU	14.0	6300	7
17	+9	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	PHI	13.8	7700	26
18	+7	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	ATL	13.6	7600	16
19	+13	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	TB	13.6	6400	19
20	-1	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	MIN	13.5	7400	2
21	+13	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	DAL	12.7	4200	6
22	+1	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	WAS	12.5	8400	17
23	-7	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ	BUF	12.5	6500	23
24	0	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	CLE	12.5	4300	24
25	+4	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	ATL	12.3	6100	16
26	N/A	Terrelle Pryor	WR	CLE	BAL	11.3	3500	13
27	-6	Allen Robinson	WR	JAX	SD	11.2	7800	11
28	+12	Tavon Austin	WR	LA	SEA	10.6	4900	10
29	+1	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	MIA	10.4	6200	29
30	-8	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	NE	10.4	6400	4
31	+23	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	GB	10.4	5100	5
32	+14	Willie Snead	WR	NO	NYG	10.4	5800	28
33	-13	TY Hilton	WR	IND	DEN	10.0	7000	8
34	+8	Jermaine Kearse	WR	SEA	LA	9.9	3500	20
35	-21	Golden Tate	WR	DET	TEN	9.9	6800	25
36	-5	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	WAS	9.8	3300	17
37	+12	Kenny Britt	WR	LA	SEA	9.8	3700	10
38	+24	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	DAL	9.6	3600	6
39	-11	Anquan Boldin	WR	DET	TEN	9.5	4500	25
40	+4	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	WAS	9.5	3200	17
41	-2	Markus Wheaton	WR	PIT	CIN	9.2	5000	14
42	+16	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	CLE	9.2	4700	24
43	+20	Davante Adams	WR	GB	MIN	9.0	4200	2
44	-7	Kamar Aiken	WR	BAL	CLE	9.0	3900	24
45	+6	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	ARI	8.8	4000	1
46	+4	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	SF	8.8	6500	31
47	-4	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	LA	8.8	4600	20
48	+5	Torrey Smith	WR	SF	CAR	8.7	4700	3
49	-22	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	SD	8.6	5400	11
50	-17	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	TB	8.6	5900	19
51	+10	Seth Roberts	WR	OAK	ATL	8.6	3800	16
52	-5	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	BAL	8.4	3100	13
53	+3	Brandon LaFell	WR	CIN	PIT	8.3	4000	30
54	+14	Mohamed Sanu	WR	ATL	OAK	7.9	5500	21
55	0	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	NO	7.6	4300	32
56	-11	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	NYJ	7.6	4000	18
57	+18	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND	DEN	7.6	6400	8
58	-17	Cecil Shorts	WR	HOU	ARI	7.5	3000	1
59	+13	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	CHI	7.4	3500	22
60	-8	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	TEN	7.3	5500	25
61	-4	Andre Johnson	WR	TEN	DET	7.2	3400	15
62	-24	Dorial Green-Beckham	WR	PHI	CHI	7.1	3300	22
63	-4	Travis Benjamin	WR	SD	JAX	7.1	4400	27
64	+15	Jaelen Strong	WR	HOU	KC	6.5	3300	12
65	-17	Ted Ginn	WR	CAR	SF	6.5	3900	31
66	-2	Brandon Coleman	WR	NO	NYG	6.4	3000	28
67	-1	Eddie Royal	WR	CHI	PHI	6.3	3500	26
68	-8	Devante Parker	WR	MIA	NE	6.0	4800	4
69	-4	Dontrelle Inman	WR	SD	JAX	5.9	3600	27
70	+15	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	LA	5.7	3000	20
71	-35	John Brown	WR	ARI	TB	5.7	5300	19
72	+15	Quincy Enunwa	WR	NYJ	BUF	5.6	4400	23
73	N/A	Brian Quick	WR	LA	SEA	5.5	3300	10
74	-5	Brice Butler	WR	DAL	WAS	5.4	3000	17
75	N/A	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	MIN	GB	5.3	3000	5
76	+13	Jeremy Kerley	WR	SF	CAR	5.1	3000	3
77	N/A	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	GB	5.0	3200	5
78	+6	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	NE	4.9	3400	4
79	-2	Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	DET	4.9	3000	15
80	+15	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	GB	4.9	3000	5
81	N/A	Harry Douglas	WR	TEN	DET	4.8	3100	15
82	-12	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	SF	4.7	4300	31
83	N/A	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	PIT	CIN	4.7	3600	14
84	+2	Quinton Patton	WR	SF	CAR	4.6	3800	3
85	+3	Phillip Dorsett	WR	IND	DEN	4.5	4400	8
86	N/A	Adam Humphries	WR	TB	ARI	4.3	3100	1
87	-11	Albert Wilson	WR	KC	HOU	4.0	3200	7
88	-14	JJ Nelson	WR	ARI	TB	4.0	3000	19
89	-18	Andre Holmes	WR	OAK	ATL	3.9	3000	16
90	-23	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	DET	3.8	3300	15
91	-9	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	SD	3.8	3100	11
92	-11	Justin Hardy	WR	ATL	OAK	3.7	3000	21
93	-13	Corey Brown	WR	CAR	SF	3.6	3000	31
94	N/A	Jared Abbrederis	WR	GB	MIN	3.6	3000	2
95	-17	Danny Amendola	WR	NE	MIA	3.5	3800	29
96	-4	Chris Conley	WR	KC	HOU	3.2	3500	7
97	-14	Jarius Wright	WR	MIN	GB	3.1	3000	5
98	N/A	Josh Huff	WR	PHI	CHI	2.9	3000	22
99	N/A	Greg Salas	WR	BUF	NYJ	2.7	3000	18
100	-10	Chris Hogan	WR	NE	MIA	2.7	3500	29
101	-10	Dwayne Harris	WR	NYG	NO	1.7	3300	32
102	-8	Rashad Greene	WR	JAX	SD	1.6	3100	11
103	N/A	James Wright	WR	CIN	PIT	1.5	3000	30
104	N/A	Jordan Norwood	WR	DEN	IND	1.5	3000	9
105	N/A	Jaron Brown	WR	ARI	TB	0.8	3300	19
106	-10	Bennie Fowler	WR	DEN	IND	0.7	3000	9
107	N/A	Cody Latimer	WR	DEN	IND	0.5	3000	9

My Top TE's:

Rank	Change	Player	Pos	Team	Opp	MyModel	Salary	OppDefRank
1	+1	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	DAL	14.3	6800	6
2	+2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	MIA	14.2	6900	29
3	+3	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	WAS	11.9	4300	17
4	+2	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	LA	10.9	3200	20
5	-1	Gary Barnidge	TE	CLE	BAL	10.1	4000	13
6	+1	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	SF	9.8	5600	31
7	+6	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	GB	9.0	3100	5
8	-6	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	DET	8.6	4500	15
9	-1	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	JAX	8.1	4500	27
10	+2	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	HOU	7.7	5000	7
11	-2	Julius Thomas	TE	JAX	SD	7.4	4400	11
12	+4	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	NYJ	7.3	3300	18
13	-2	Coby Fleener	TE	NO	NYG	6.7	3900	28
14	+4	Jared Cook	TE	GB	MIN	6.6	3000	2
15	+4	Lance Kendricks	TE	LA	SEA	6.4	2900	10
16	+9	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	CLE	6.4	2800	24
17	-2	Richard Rodgers	TE	GB	MIN	6.1	2800	2
18	N/A	Vernon Davis	TE	WAS	DAL	6.1	2600	6
19	-5	Eric Ebron	TE	DET	TEN	6.0	3500	25
20	+19	Jace Amaro	TE	NYJ	DET	5.9	2500	15
21	+13	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	LA	5.6	2700	20
22	+9	Clive Walford	TE	OAK	ATL	5.4	2900	16
23	+12	Jordan Cameron	TE	MIA	NE	5.4	2800	4
24	-1	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	TB	ARI	5.3	2900	1
25	-1	Crockett Gillmore	TE	BAL	CLE	5.0	2500	24
26	-16	Martellus Bennett	TE	NE	MIA	5.0	4400	29
27	-6	Zach Miller	TE	CHI	PHI	5.0	3000	26
28	0	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	CHI	4.9	2600	22
29	-3	Dwayne Allen	TE	IND	DEN	4.6	3600	8
30	0	Jacob Tamme	TE	ATL	OAK	4.6	2900	21
31	-14	Will Tye	TE	NYG	NO	4.0	2900	32
32	-3	Vance McDonald	TE	SF	CAR	4.0	3000	3
33	-13	Mychal Rivera	TE	OAK	ATL	3.9	2600	16
34	+9	Jesse James	TE	PIT	CIN	3.4	3400	14
35	-14	Zach Miller	TE	SEA	PHI	3.3	3000	26
36	+1	Garrett Celek	TE	SF	CAR	3.3	2600	3
37	N/A	Jermaine Gresham	TE	ARI	TB	3.3	2500	19
38	-16	Larry Donnell	TE	NYG	NO	3.2	2900	32
39	-1	Ryan Griffin	TE	HOU	KC	3.0	2500	12
40	-7	Darren Fells	TE	ARI	TB	2.9	2600	19
41	-5	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	DEN	2.7	2500	8
42	-2	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	ARI	2.6	2600	1
43	-11	Tyler Kroft	TE	CIN	PIT	2.5	2500	30
44	N/A	Anthony Fasano	TE	TEN	DET	2.1	2500	15
45	-4	Josh Hill	TE	NO	NYG	2.1	2500	28
46	N/A	Marcedes Lewis	TE	JAX	SD	1.4	2600	11
47	N/A	David Johnson	TE	SD	TB	0.9	7600	19
48	N/A	Ed Dickson	TE	CAR	SF	0.9	2500	31
49	N/A	Niles Paul	TE	WAS	DAL	0.8	2500	6
50	-8	Dion Sims	TE	MIA	NE	0.6	2500	4
51	-7	Virgil Green	TE	DEN	IND	0.4	2800	9
52	N/A	Alex Smith	TE	CIN	HOU	0.2	6300	7
53	N/A	Kellen Davis	TE	NYJ	BUF	-1.3	2500	23

My Top DST's

For these rankings, I use a rolling database of the past eight games and determine the effect a defense has on my projections, on average. The best defenses generally cause my estimates to be underestimates, the worst, overestimates.

When you read the DST rankings below, one sticks out like a sore thumb - my Indianapolis Colts. They climbed 16 spots to be the 9th rated overall. What gives? They gave up 38 points in Week 1, right? Well, there is a lot behind the numbers here, but essentially they are getting rewarded in this system for not allowing all Lions to have the games that were predicted of them.

Furthermore, the defense is in the middle territory of significance. This means my top DST's are in the 75th percentile or higher, the worst defenses in 25th percentile or lower. In between? Total crapshoot.

Rank	Change	Team	Percentile
1	+1	ARI	0.994
2	+1	MIN	0.922
3	+5	CAR	0.880
4	+6	NE	0.867
5	+4	GB	0.825
6	-2	DAL	0.790
7	-2	HOU	0.749
8	-7	DEN	0.748
9	+16	IND	0.713
10	-4	SEA	0.675
11	0	SD	0.624
12	-5	KC	0.607
13	+7	BAL	0.586
14	-1	CIN	0.542
15	+4	DET	0.525
16	+5	ATL	0.514
17	+1	WAS	0.513
18	-6	NYJ	0.509
19	+3	TB	0.494
20	-6	LA	0.473
21	-4	OAK	0.469
22	-6	CHI	0.431
23	-8	BUF	0.266
24	+4	CLE	0.212
25	-1	TEN	0.212
26	+5	PHI	0.159
27	+2	JAX	0.102
28	+2	NYG	0.064
29	-6	MIA	0.062
30	-3	PIT	0.052
31	-5	SF	0.047
32	0	NO	0.028

Image Credit

Cover Photo Background - Pixabay

Sort:

Trending

[-]

steemrollin (69) 8 years ago

This is cool. I wish you joined our Fantasy League..
Anyways great to see this analysis. I'll definitely follow to see how well this algorithm works.

BTW long time ago I wanted to find a good way to rank offenses and defenses based on the strength of schedule or strength of opposing defenses and offenses respectively. It seemed to me though that as the season goes by you'll have more information about the strength of previous team matchups.. but it seems like if you updated the data based on previous matchups that would in turn depend on other matchups and you'd get some kind of infinite recursion. I was wondering how you would solve that and use the entire matchups database to rank offenses and defenses? Not sure I'm describing the question the right way, but hopefully you get the gist of what I'm asking. Thanks.

$0.00

2 votes

team-leibniz (62) 8 years ago

Thanks for the kind words! I saw the fantasy league starting but only declined because I am already in 10 yearly leagues this year. Needed some balance with that and everything I am doing here with DFS analysis.

I totally understand what you are asking with infinite recursion, that would be very tough to model. You wood have to be very careful with how you quantified that information so it came across in a meaningful way. I really like the FiveThirtyEight blog and how they use a chess model (ELO) to calculate strength of teams. I opted for differences in actual versus predicted. Both rely on numbers that are easier to pin down.

Have you ever seen the NFL parity wheel? Pretty cool graph that comes out every year showing exactly the same problem you described:

Wow 10 leagues... no problem. Maybe you can join us next year.
Yeah ELO is interesting for sure. I like that it's simple and just uses points & location.
I've never seen the parity wheel, but yeah it does describe the problem.
Hey I just had an idea. To keep it simple to start just use Avg Points Per Game for offense and Avg Points Per Game allowed for defense. To prevent the infinite recursion we can identify the median 8 teams (25% of the league) on both Offense & Defense from 2015 and give them an average strength rating to start in 2016. Once we fix certain team ratings as average we probably won't have a recursion problem. You can also adjust the initial ratings based on major changes (coaching changes/player acquisition) so that the 8 median teams may not be purely based on 2015. What do you think?

al3b3d3v (25) 8 years ago

Hi team-leibniz, I really like the blog, great insight and tons of great math. However, I dont understand your lineup construction if you dont follow your own projections... In the week 2 you gave your projections with the differences from week 1 and graded them in all the positions. Okay thats good. Now, I went in a did a bit of recon to find one of your lineups in a GPP which is so far deviated from your write up here, that it doesnt make sense.
Ok, not all of doesnt make sense, I can see why you played Bortles/A.Robinson in what everyone said is supposed to be a fast pace high scoring game. You picked both PPR favorable backs in the ATL/OAK and JAX/SD games. Ok cool.
twigsta26 0 114.66 QB Blake Bortles RB Danny Woodhead RB C.J. Anderson WR Julio Jones WR Allen Robinson WR Tyrell Williams TE Dwayne Allen FLEX Tevin Coleman DST Buccaneers

Ok so here is where Im confused, why wouldnt you pick the top players that you think will be in the 75% percent vs the long shots in the above lineup ?
Again, Im not criticizing at all, I spent hours reading your blogs and I wanted to do something similar to what you were doing. But dont have enough time and patience yet.... Thanks!

Thank you for your reply! Glad you are digging the statistical approach!

The lineup of mine you studied was one of at least 15 that I played this week. I crafted a lineup optimizer that takes into account salary constraints, salaries, and projected point values. I use this tool to adjust points for players considering many different scenarios. One of these had JAX/SD and ATL/OAK as high scoring teams, the one you mention here. I had several others based on scenarios I played out that altered my predictions based on extreme game results. At this point, it is all an experiment! One, I might add, that didn't quite work well for me this week. I had the majority of my plays on my algorithm guys, but had a bit of bad luck there with injuries and lower scoring combinations.

Look forward to hearing more from you in the weeks to come!