Soccer Will Not Become a Top Sport in the U.S. Anytime Soon, So Just Enjoy the Game

Every four years in the United States, we hear the same old rhetoric. The first time I heard it, I thought it might come true. But after decades of seeing that potential end in failure, it has become clear that the words are an empty promise.

No, I’m not talking about politics, but about soccer.

Youth soccer in the U.S. Source: Creative Commons via Wikimedia by Derek Jensen.

Soccer is the name we Americans give to the international sport of futbol, football, or whatever you prefer to call it. Here, we have our own sport called football (it’s known elsewhere as American football), so for the one that really uses feet, we use the term soccer.

U.S. Soccer’s Time Has Come? Not So Fast.

“Americans are ready for soccer”, “It’s finally soccer’s time”, “This will be the push that U.S. soccer needs”… those are some variations of the myth that is trotted out every four years around World Cup time. In sports media and on talk shows, they are giddily interviewing soccer players and coaches who agree the time has finally arrived. If the games are exciting, fans will come and they will stay.

The fiction is that soccer will someday rise and take its rightful place as one of the top sports in the U.S., since it’s so popular elsewhere. They seem to believe that Americans are ready to switch over from football, basketball, baseball to embrace the world’s sport. All it will take it the home team doing well and voila! People will become lifelong soccer fans.

I don't think so.

Unfortunately, that it’s wishful thinking. Soccer is NOT on track to become a major professional sport in the United States. I love watching soccer at all levels, but I no longer buy into that narrative. There might be plenty of children playing youth soccer across the country, but few of them continue with it beyond a certain age.

Every four years, after being overhyped, the U.S. men’s soccer team dies an early World Cup death (this year, it didn’t even get in). Occasionally, like the women, the men’s team might make an improbably deep run. The U.S. women even compete for world championships, but two weeks later, does anyone remember? The country goes back to its staple of basketball, American football, baseball, and a smattering of hockey to go with the video games, TV shows, and other competing demands in our entertainment economy.

Soccer is Exciting Enough in Other Countries

Many people say that soccer is not exciting enough to hold the attention of most Americans. Americans prefer something faster with more offense or violence. But this isn’t a valid explanation. To disprove it, simply attend a good soccer game anywhere else in the world where fans are passionate about the sport. For every second of that game, those fans are on the edge of their seats, standing, beating drums, or even rioting. Yes, soccer can be incredibly exciting.

Atlanta United fans in their first season. Source: ESPN.

Or you can ask the fans of Atlanta United, the most recent addition to Major League Soccer (MLS) in the United States. They had a spirited and exciting first year in their stadium, drawing lots of fans from Atlanta and around the Southeastern U.S. The team has set attendance records (playing in a stadium whose primary purpose is American football the rest of the year). In fact, Atlanta United’s first year has gone so well that even national sports media in the U.S. is declaring it to be the dawn of a new era in American soccer.

I hope they are right about that, but it’s unlikely. People are usually euphoric about a new sports team. It’s not unusual for new stadiums to sell out for a period of time, especially when the city’s other pro sports teams are suffering periods of mediocrity. If the Atlanta soccer team goes through a prolonged losing record, let’s see how many of those fans are still there at that time. I’ll wager a bag of balls that the excitement and attendance both taper off before they spread meaningfully to other pro soccer cities in the U.S., but I hope I’m wrong.

There’s a reason that it’s difficult to spread such enthusiasm. The reason is money. Soccer stars in the U.S. make a fraction of the salaries commanded by American football, basketball, and baseball stars. Average salaries are even worse.

Love, Fame, and Fortune

Playing for the love of the game is noble. Love is all we need. Nevertheless, the brightest stars look for fame and fortune as well.

Let’s start with the ‘fortune’ part. The overall lack of money in soccer player salaries in the makes it hard for soccer to attract the best U.S. athletes. Can you imagine LeBron James or Russell Westbrook playing soccer? How about Aaron Judge or Yasiel Puig? If J.J. Watt, Adrian Peterson, or Calvin Johnson had chosen to play soccer during their formative years instead of football, would their incredible athleticism have made them big soccer stars?
LeBron James:

Aaron Judge:

Calvin Johnson:

I just named seven incredible physical specimens with innate athletic ability. There are many more in each of these sports. If the system and incentives had been aligned for a few of them to focus on soccer, it’s hard to believe the U.S. would have blown its World Cup chances recently by losing to Trinidad & Tobago, a nation whose entire population is equivalent to the 9th largest U.S. city.

Jim Thorpe could have won that game single-handedly, and he didn’t even play soccer (just kidding, but here is a trailer showing some of the skills of this man who may have been the greatest multi-sports star in American history):

Salary comparison for U.S. sports. Source: Forbes.

The minimum salary in MLS is $60,000 per year. That’s better than mowing lawns or delivering pizzas, but it doesn’t come close to the $435,000, $507,500, and $535,000 minimum salaries in America’s professional football, baseball, and basketball leagues, respectively. The highest paid player in the MLS is Kaka with $7 million annually, while LeBron James, Drew Brees, and Clayton Kershaw each make over $30 million annually.

And what about ‘fame’? The Big Three sports’ stars are in the limelight. They are on national TV regularly and when they are not playing, we see them hawking their favorite shoe brands. Meanwhile, American soccer stars are not household names. I’m guessing that 90% of the people in the United States could not name more than three MLS players. If a young person wants to star in a video game or make a cameo in a Hollywood film, playing MLS soccer is not the easiest way to get there. When the United States produces a rare player with the talent of a Christian Pulisic, he goes to play in a European pro league, which offers the possibility of more fame and more money.

American Christian Pulisic, playing for Borussia Dortmund in Germany. Source: thesun.co.uk.

So What’s the Problem?

It’s not that the U.S. doesn’t have good athletes. The historical Olympics medal count shows that U.S. athletes have earned the most medals of any country. And from LeBron James to Aaron Judge to Calvin Johnson (to name a few examples), the major sports have produced some of the best athletes one can imagine.

And it’s not that the U.S, doesn’t have the money to pay its top athletes. Stars in these top sports are earning tens of millions of dollars per year. Most of that money comes from TV contracts which the teams have with broadcasters, who then monetize their content through advertising. The advertisers invest in sports with strong viewership. So ultimately, consumers pay the bill.

Do the consumers set the entertainment agenda? If something is popular with their viewers, TV broadcasters and advertisers certainly pay attention. But most likely, it’s probably those broadcasters and advertisers who take that lead most of the time. Basketball, football, and baseball all have natural breaks that make them perfect for lots of commercials, allowing for plenty of money to flow via advertisements.

Soccer has more continuous play and fewer breaks, though that has not stopped it from becoming a big money sport in many other countries (where the top stars earn at least as much in salary as the major U.S. sports stars).

Eventually, times may change. Even if the U.S. president erects a wall to protect the country against soccer fans, the Hispanic population will continue to grow. Demographically, this should be good news for U.S. soccer. If a team like Atlanta United has a formula for fan engagement, perhaps some of it can be duplicated to increase interest in games in other MLS cities.

In Time, It May Grow. For Now, It Won’t.

Other big American sports are facing challenges that could cut into their popularity eventually. American football has a crisis related to head injuries and the effect the game has on its players’ brain health. Even many professional football players will not let their own kids play football anymore. Baseball’s fan base is increasingly made up of middle-aged and older fans, while younger people prefer other entertainment. However, baseball recently addressed this by apparently juicing the ball, leading to a record number of home runs that provide more excitement for casual fans. Over time, will fans trickle away from these sports?

Wake me up when American soccer truly becomes an elite sport. I think we still have a long ways to go before that time comes. Until then, don’t believe the hype in sports media and on talk shows when they say that U.S. soccer’s time has come. That’s a pipe dream.

All you need is love?

Yet even if the money isn’t adequate to attract the nation’s top athletes, soccer is still an amazing sport. This is the world’s sport and it’s just as entertaining when played in the United States. I can sit down and watch a game any time, enjoying every second of it. Arguably, there’s something more fun about a sport that isn’t dominated by money.

Feel free to enjoy soccer for the pure love of the game.

Sources:

MLS Salaries vs. Other Sports: https://sites.duke.edu/wcwp/2016/03/31/mls-salaries-compared-to-other-american-sports/
Average Player Salaries in American Sports: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/12/15/average-player-salaries-in-major-american-sports-leagues/#555de8d71050
Christian Pulisic in the Bundesliga: http://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/usa-borussia-dortmund-s-christian-pulisic-past-year-has-been-a-rollercoaster-458053.jsp
Atlanta United’s Great Fan Experience: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2741025-how-atlanta-united-fc-became-the-best-experience-in-us-soccer
Atlanta is U.S. Soccer’s New Hotbed, But Will It Last? https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/soccer/2017/10/25/atlanta-becomes-us-soccers-new-hotbed-but-will-it-last/107003594/
In Stunner, US Team Falls: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/soccer-insider/wp/2017/10/10/in-a-stunner-u-s-falls-to-trinidad-and-tobago-and-will-not-qualify-for-2018-world-cup/?utm_term=.2d4557c8b810
U.S. Cities by Population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population