No, but they will have enough resources to get to those Titles and guaranteed airdrops as well as the larger discounts via bonus packs. Things would at least be easier if the two presales were split apart. At current prices I will have to miss out on the best deals.
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You just blindly assume that there's no risk involved, but there is. The Pack prices might as well just drop for now and make a comeback only months later, we've seen that happen before. Especially Vouchers can cause FOFO prices early on.
I'm planning for the long term. Take a look at the prices of Alpha, Beta, Orbs, Untamed, Dice prices on Hive-Engine. Prices will eventually end up in a profit even it it take some time.
I think my Math is not becoming clear, you now pay in DEC and SPS, wich I both expect to grow in value over the following weeks to a couple of months by 40% for DEC (obsly) and SPS 500% at least (call me crazy), + you need the vouchers + packs on the Engine will be traded at discount to the initial price. It might very well be that your "whales" overpay by a factor of 5x-10x to get into the Pre-Sale with mass. I call that a risk.
I personally expect far bigger gains for SPS. You are being very conservative IMHO.
There are perks that are coming with the extra investment. Getting 6 Doctor Blight Cards and additional airdrops from Chaos Legion Presale is something I am happy looking back.
That leads to minimum $4.40 value for $2 Alpha Packs. Even if I opened the packs now in the past I was forced to HODL Packs because I didn't want to open them without Potions), I could recover the losses through future price appreciation. As a player, I would be using some of these Cards in the game. The rest I can rent to earn some passive DEC.
Even in the case SPS ends up outperform Presale, it could still be treated as a form of diversification which could come in handy. For an example, I could sell a Card at an emergency faster than SPS which I have to wait 7 days for.
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Let's not go another two corners, you've showcased your point rather sufficiently.
It's only a couple of days left now, let's wait and see.
Are you a packs hoarder? :)
So what you're saying is, if you keep, let's say 1 out of 3 packs, you can sell them later (18-24Months) and go break even with that alone? This game is probably not old enough to make a solid case for that, but it might very well be totally true.