Greetings from The Legendary Canary!

1. Number go up

Ever since it was revealed that holding DEC would be the most efficient way of increasing one's share of the upcoming SPS airdrop, the price of DEC in USD terms has been going up and up and up.

The funniest thing is how this has transpired at a time when rentals went to using DEC as the native currency, since I figured that even though I would no longer be able to play any HIVE volatility, at least I would now have a more predictable revenue stream.

Except ... now that DEC keeps going up, it looks like we are having to deal with volatility all over again. Right now it's all to the upside which is great! But when the downswing happens and we come back towards the peg, it is NOT going to be fun for DEC holders.

What should we do?

2. DEC pricing, demand and supply

To help form a plan of action, it is helpful to be aware of the major factors currently influencing the supply and demand of DEC. The following is not meant to be an exhaustive review, but just to give a broad-brush sketch of the major things to have to consider.

Holding for the SPS airdrop seems to be the biggest driver of upwards momentum right now (either simply held in game wallets, or being staked in a LP). Other factors include there currently being no main edition of cards to buy, guild upgrades (IMO very small effect), Dice purchases (IMO also relatively small effect)

For the downwards momentum, in theory the daily reward pool for DEC increases in proportion to how far away it is from the peg. However, if the majority of the DEC inflation is flowing to stakeholders interested mainly in SPS, that extra supply isn't going to be circulating in the in-game economy, meaning that it isn't going to make much of a dent in bringing down the peg. It's kind of like the fed pumping dollars into banks while the banks themselves are refusing to lend into the real economy.

Unless there is some other major source of downward momentum that I'm not aware of, we might be above peg for the entirety of the 12 month airdrop. I'd love to know if there are other factors I'm not considering!

3. The plan

If you're renting using DEC earnings from within the game, there hopefully should not be much impact on the way you play. If you're lucky, the increase in DEC value might offset the increased demand for rentals generally, causing the rates you pay to actually go down. Check out peakmonsters.com to get a much better handle on rates and a much easier time quickly renting the cards you actually need for the lowest price.

If you're leasing out cards like me, it might mean it's time to drop those yields even lower (sigh), unless the influx of new player demand completely overwhelms the existing rental stock. Which I don't think will happen unless these players like to rent in Gold league and above - there are some mighty whales out there to bring a tonne of low-BCX supply on-line if things get tight.

If you're buying cards because you actually want to play the game, hopefully you have found that the DEC you have earned over time is getting you a bit more bang for your buck. But this is greatly offset by the surge in card prices generally in recent months .... You might want to wait until Chaos Legion releases to score some real bargains.

If you're selling cards .... I hope it's for the purpose of the airdrop or otherwise you are re-investing into the game some time down the track, because Splinterlands is on the up and up.

And generally speaking, when Chaos Legion hits, that is when I am expecting the first dip in DEC valuation. As someone who is not holding DEC for the airdrop, I've been plowing everything I earn back into card purchases and not feeling too fussed while doing it. Especially since if the team go with the same pricing model with Chaos Legion packs as they did with Untamed ($2 USD / 2000 DEC), there is no way I am paying with DEC while it is above peg. I'm sure I will throw a few credits in just to get a taste of pack-cracking but that's about it (generally I do not do packs).

4. Price beat commitment! Earning that DEC

Regardless of movements to the upside or downside, I'm still committed to being as competitive as I can be in the rental scene, knowing that it would not take much for a couple of whales to completely wipe me (and everyone else) out.

So if you find the same card on the rental market listed at a lower price, leave a comment below or DM me in the Splinterlands Discord and I will beat that price.

The major moves are in capital gains anyway, not in these tiny rental yields. But I will take what I can get.

This is a race to the bottom! Everybody grab your shovels. And we will see which force will prevail ... the card whales pushing down, or the flood of new renters pushing up.

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Today's Featured Card

Would you be interested in a ...

Name: Albatross
Card ID: G4-169-HL9E6TIG9C
Daily Fee: 70.000 DEC

Man ... just a couple of months ago, singles for this card were selling for 75c. Everybody hated this them, so I just kept buying them until one day they reached over $1.6 and I said nope .. no more buying for me. And then it just kept going up. I guess people finally figured out that tank healers are actually useful? What a crazy market.

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Beat the Lowest Price!

If you find the same card on the rental market listed at a lower price, leave a comment below or DM me in the Splinterlands Discord and I will beat that price.

Explore what is Available!

https://peakmonsters.com/@legendarycanary/cards
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