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RE: How Black and White thinking harms us all

in #science7 years ago

Exactly, it´s all about probabilities that the scientific method can deliver. Hence, there is always some grey zone in scientifically described systems. And one should keep in mind that also probabilities are subject to change as new data arises.

if you have a calculated probability of 99.99% that humans cause climate change, then the grey zone is virtually non-existant.

I´m not sure whether this is meant as a hypothetical statement. Because, if not, I would doubt it. I would agree if this would be the confidence for us being in a phase of global warming. However, whether humans are the cause ( in the sense of being the main cause) seems much less probable to me. I´m not proposing the contrary but a confidence of 99.99% appears to me as an ideological rather than a scientific statement.

But this would be a dispute around a specific scientific problem. Regarding the question whether science delivers truth or probabilities, I think we have the same stance.

Thanks for your reply and I will check your post a bit later.

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that is actually a number derived from scientific studies that calculated those probabilities based on a meta-analysis of the available data. I quoted the studies in this old post of mine.
To be precise, it's >99% for human causing and 99.999% for greenhouse gases causing climate change.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2128-2
and
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096314000163?via%3Dihub# - in the full text.

I'll have a look, thanks for the links.