What’s The World Coming to? 12 Scenaries of Global Future Presented in Simple Graphs.

In my recent post about the problems that alien civilization may face, I used Fermi paradox as an example to explain that the life cycle of any civilization is strictly limited by the lack of natural resources. Humanity, just like many other civilizations, will never be able to go beyond the Solar System and colonize the whole Galaxy.

However, it is only a hypothesis, one out of many. There is a certain domain of science and certain scientists called futurologists which specialize in studying and estimating global risks. Alex Turchin, for example, created 12 possible models of the nearest future.

Each model is a graph with its X being time and its Y – metrics characterizing the progress of civilization. These metrics include economy growth, average life length, accumulated volume of knowledge, technological level, and indications of wealth. Such metrics are intimately interconnected with each other. The list starts with scenarios promising us the fastest growth. Closer to the end of the list, the prognosis becomes more obscure and pessimistic.

1. Hyperbolic model Due to accumulating more knowledge and developing artificial intelligence during upcoming decades, the civilization will receive a powerful boost and we will reach “technological singularity”. Supporters: Jay Wright Forrester, an engineer and the founder of System Dynamics.	2. Exponential growth The technology progresses exponentially with metrics doubling, let’s say, every two years. This is according to Moore’s law related to the evolution of microprocessors. Supporters: Raymond Kurzweil, an inventor and an enthusiast of speech recognition, text-to-speech synthesis, and other intellectual agendas.
3. Linear progress A standard model for the economy growth. For example, 3% annualy. Supporters: the vast majority of economists.	4. Reaching an asymptote A steady pace of progress when scientists and technological opportunities slowly exhaust. Supporters: John Horgan, a science writer notorious for his book “The End of Science”.
5. Wave motion Due to the lack of available resources, the world falls into a global systemic crisis. The civilization consequently degrades. Supporters: Dennis L. Meadows, a famous scientist notorious for his report “The Limits of Growth”.	6. Chaotic movement The biggest driving forces of history are random unpredictable events and new discoveries. Supporters: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an economist, businessman, and the author of “The Black Swan” where he contemplates about the role of so-called outliers, certain rare and completely unpredictable events.
7. Unpredictable future We cannot predict the future beyond the moment of creation a true artificial intellect, since we do not comprehend its logic and its level of comprehension. Supporters: Vernor Steffen Vinge, a sci-fi writer and mathematician.	8. Cyclic model Everything repeats itself: civilizations live through their glory and ruin, economies through their boom-and-bust cycles. Supporters: Oswald Spengler and many ancient wise men.
9. Slow accumulation of unpredictability The nearest future is more than predictable. Further into the future the variables start appearing and the further we look, the more obscure our estimations become. Supporters: the vast majority of contemporary people and foresite founders.	10. Global catastrophe   The biggest event in the nearest future will be a global catastrophe that will devastate everyone or nearly everyone and cause the degradation of the civilization. Supporters: Martin Rees, an astrophysicist.
11. Everything is in the hands of divine powers The progress of civilization is an illusion. We are living in a simulated reality created with a certain goal in mind and managed according to a certain scenario. Supporters: every religious person.	12. Garden of many ways   The future depends on our actions. Some deeds and decisions will lead humanity to immortality, others – to degradation and global catastrophes. Supporters: me!