Good analysis and presentation of the vote calculation which if you search a thousand posts on the same matter, 99% would give you bad answers. Always SBD return is 50%, while others are still holding that is not true and in fact is 70% (from author rewards of 75% from the entire sum).
When I invest SBD I expect to at least recoup for this the entire portion in SBD (even if additionally I receive STEEM Power). This should be clearly stated by any BOT.
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Well, you should target a minimum upvote of 2.67 times your initial investment to meet your criteria. But again, SBD prices are on a fall for last 3 days. So whether you get the same valued SBDs back or not depends on the market and your patience too.
Good luck!