This is quite a sensitive topic for me and you might have views different from mine. Anything that gets traded cannot have a fixed value.
Listing few points wherein I would love to know your views on:
- What makes SBD price rise? i'm pretty new to the whole crypto thing and its not that suddenly the world realized the potential and started buying steem but If you see the trade chart then you see accumulation happening. Maybe the whales are getting interested.
- Can you use steem otherwise? Yes if you have more steem power then you can certainly make yourself more money. So that's where whales might be interested.
- Who influence my sale decisions? Well I would say all those charts, tables and studies hold absolutely no value (not trying to offend anyone) when it comes to Human psychology. I've been mentioning the same on few other posts as well. These charts and trends show you a pattern but what makes the pattern is the behavior. This month starting is a perfect example of panic sale. While the Chinese and Korean exchanges didn't do as much damage as our fellow investors did.
Take my example. Last time i sold my SBD at 11$ which definitely made me greedy and i moved them to my bittrex account waiting for it to touch the $10+ figure. I don't depend on steemit's earning for a living so even thoe its important I'm not in panic state to sell them.
What happened to my steem dollar? They are still in my account since i feel i missed the train and should have sold atleast half when it touched $8 last week. Who's influencing my sale? My behavior or my greed maybe.
Artificial scarcity and people investing in hype makes the price rise. Some whale starts the pump and others follow suit inflating the price of the asset. Since SBD has no cases outside of trading it for a profit, the token has no real value. But the Steem blockchain allows you to trade one SBD for $1 of STEEM. Thus, the fundamental price is $1. People who accumulate it do not understand the use cases and production schedule of the SBD. These whales will be burned in the future as the SBD price eventually decreases. The price will decrease because as long as STEEM remains significantly above $1, more SBDs are being created than STEEM is being created. If STEEM rises to $10, we see around 10x the amount of SBDs being created. If the story of growth is to be believed, then we should expect the STEEM price to go up which means the SBD price will go down as SBD is flooded into the market.
You can trade in STEEM and it has other use cases. It does everything that SBDs do now and more. The only exception is that you can't trade STEEM for a guaranteed $1 of an asset which you can do with SBD. But nobody would convert an SBD for $1 of STEEM when they could trade for several dollars in the market.
Nobody influences your sales decisions but yourself. I agree with you that understanding human psychology is a better tool to understand the markets than technical analysis. These calls for $20 SBD are ludicrous because there is no hysteria for such high SBD. SBD will do down to $1 eventually because as SBDs flood the market, the supply will exceed the demand. The price will slowly go down, and people will lose hope killing off all remaining hype. The price returns to its $1 peg now being even harder to manipulate due to the huge amount of SBD in the market. This is a good case for the wait and see approach rather than implementing the reverse peg.
Since SBD is mathematically doomed to return to $1, I'm selling most of the SBDs I am not giving away. Because the odds are that SBDs are more likely to go down due to surplus supply.
Definitely. I too m converting them to Steem or moving to more stable coins and needless to say loved staying connected and learning your point of view. Stay connected. Cheers