Artificial scarcity and people investing in hype makes the price rise. Some whale starts the pump and others follow suit inflating the price of the asset. Since SBD has no cases outside of trading it for a profit, the token has no real value. But the Steem blockchain allows you to trade one SBD for $1 of STEEM. Thus, the fundamental price is $1. People who accumulate it do not understand the use cases and production schedule of the SBD. These whales will be burned in the future as the SBD price eventually decreases. The price will decrease because as long as STEEM remains significantly above $1, more SBDs are being created than STEEM is being created. If STEEM rises to $10, we see around 10x the amount of SBDs being created. If the story of growth is to be believed, then we should expect the STEEM price to go up which means the SBD price will go down as SBD is flooded into the market.
You can trade in STEEM and it has other use cases. It does everything that SBDs do now and more. The only exception is that you can't trade STEEM for a guaranteed $1 of an asset which you can do with SBD. But nobody would convert an SBD for $1 of STEEM when they could trade for several dollars in the market.
Nobody influences your sales decisions but yourself. I agree with you that understanding human psychology is a better tool to understand the markets than technical analysis. These calls for $20 SBD are ludicrous because there is no hysteria for such high SBD. SBD will do down to $1 eventually because as SBDs flood the market, the supply will exceed the demand. The price will slowly go down, and people will lose hope killing off all remaining hype. The price returns to its $1 peg now being even harder to manipulate due to the huge amount of SBD in the market. This is a good case for the wait and see approach rather than implementing the reverse peg.
Since SBD is mathematically doomed to return to $1, I'm selling most of the SBDs I am not giving away. Because the odds are that SBDs are more likely to go down due to surplus supply.
Definitely. I too m converting them to Steem or moving to more stable coins and needless to say loved staying connected and learning your point of view. Stay connected. Cheers