Ripple (XRP) has skyrocketed not only over the past 2 weeks, but also the past 24 hours, surging past the $2 mark (and getting close to challenging $3 at one point). The Rippening / Rippling occurred if you look at total supply, but given the fact this supply is mostly locked in escrow, it behaves more like inflation as it is released into the economy slowly.
Much of this surge in Ripple has come from recent news where Ripple announced three large credit card companies from Japan are partnering with them for a pilot program. In addition, two weeks ago they announced a pilot program with a number of Korean & Japanese banks. Despite these partnerships being exploratory, the market prices them in as full-fledged collaborations due to hype. This type of mentality is not unique to Ripple, but it is affecting Ripple drastically right now so it is worth noting.
I see Ripple as overextended now, although I wouldn't be surprised if irrational exuberance carries it two fold from here given how absurd the rise in Verge was recently (illustrating how strong pumps can be). We also saw this with Iota before it eventually cooled off. Everyone buys in thinking that other people know something they don't know.
This is unfortunate because Ripple has a real and interesting use case with an excellent team. It doesn't need hype to do well, yet this is the nature of the field due to the overinflation of Bitcoin. Furthermore, a lot of people associate the value of the Ripple token with the value of the network. While the Ripple token is the most convenient and trustless currency to use within the Ripple network, it is not representative of the network value and should not be priced as such.
If I had the option, I'd much prefer investing in Ripple the company than Ripple the cryptocurrency. Why? Because I see higher value in the network the company is building than the token itself. Given the company is unfortunately private, this is not an option. I will personally stay away from the Ripple token at these levels.
What are your thoughts? Thank you for watching / reading.
While it's clear that Ripple the token is overvalued at the moment, what sets it apart from Verge to me (and to many others I would assume) is that, like you said, they're a very strong team, not only from the cryptography/computer science/software development standpoint, but also the marketing standpoint, as well as the management standpoint.
When I first invested in Ripple I thought it would be a "safe" investment, as safe as investments could get in the crypto space. Why? I checked out their code, I researched the company, the people behind it. Watched interviews and talks that they gave. And I admit, not only was I impressed by their work, which is phenomenal by the way, I was also convinced and immediately bought 1000 XRP when it had hit 60 cents.
Although your comment about inflation always looming above XRP and applying that downward pressure, I ultimately think that's good for XRP. For the pumpers and dumpers it isn't because it makes it much more difficult for them to do so - but as a currency, we need Ripple to be as stable as possible. This kind of inflationary pressure detracts "investors" who are purely in it for the pump and dump and quick buck from touching XRP, making it actually usable as a currency.
Compare this to Verge, which has nothing more than a codebase and an idea. It saw a 4000% pump over a couple of months. Something similar happened to EmberCoin where it pumped 2000% in one day. Just mindless, meaningless pumps that happen everyday with a new crypto.
As for investing in Ripple the company, I think that's a brilliant idea, and I'm hoping they have ideas of an IPO as soon as they get more deals in with banks and try to work through this tangle of a problem. You're definitely right, replacing SWIFT isn't going to happen in one year. Probably not even in five years. I would say 10 years is also too optimistic.
Anyways, great points and as always great video!
Yes, increasing supply is useful for currencies based on most economic principles (not all). Pumps in smaller cryptocurrencies can occur due to one source, but mega caps like RIpple only pump when FOMO sets in which I believe we are seeing now. I wish they would file for an IPO - I would love to read the S1 as it would provide a lot of insight into what it takes to build a cryptocurrency the scale that Ripple is. Thanks for the valuable comment!
Ripple is such a good project, but I still can't invest in it because of principles. I am not in cryptos to support banks, don't care if I miss out on huge gains.
Always an interesting debate when it comes to investing - should ethics play a role? I know a number of people who won't invest in big pharma because of viewing drug pricing as criminal activity.
Would you be willing to trade it? Or are all bets off?
I avoided Ripple for the same reason. I like the idea of decentralizing, not supporting the banks in another way. I thought the whole point of crypto was to prevent another stock market crash from people gambling with our money.
Sure investing in Ripple would be better than the XRP token but nevertheless investing in XRP is wise if you believe in Ripple, the two are correlated. If you want to argue they are not perfectly positively correlated I would agree, but if I hope you concede that XRP token can be used by the Ripple-net users and it would quicken settlement times and lower fees.
Therefore growing adoption of the XRP by the Ripple net users is in my view likely. And on that strength I think XRP was grossly undervalued before the recent pump.
Things are getting crazy and I sold some of my XRP because I foresee a pull back in the near future, but I definitely see XRP as a use case coin, which aids settlement for a growing number of very large companies who are being serviced by the ripple-network.
Can't wait to see your next video on this topic. Love having you on Steemit. Thanks. Blessings.
Thanks for the comment infidel. They are definitely correlated - I would just much prefer if I could buy the company instead since the hype isn't as strong in equity markets (even if they are expensive right now) relative to cryptocurrencies.
P.S. @cryptovestor
thanks for being a calm voice of reason and thoughtful analysis in this crypto space, where most content creators are just "Moon!" this, and "LAMBO!" that. Its a breathe of fresh air to hear someone like you, thoughtfully explore the pros and cons of a project, like Bitcoin when most everyone else will not dare say anything, bearish, for fear they will be roasted in the comments. It seems fear of approval really directs some channels, but your content is always clear, concise, thoughtful, and balanced.
Im not saying I always agree, but I do always appreciate your view. And I always hear you out.
Ripple is definitely a coin with huge potential, however, it's unfortunate (or fortunate depending how you look at it) to have pumps caused by irrational exuberance like this to offset the natural volatility swings of a market.
Ripple still has transaction fees and is maxed at 1500 transactions per second on the network. Raiblocks can handle 7000+ transactions per second and have 0 transaction fees, while still remaining decentralized. I'm not trying to shill Raiblocks, but I'm just trying to say there are better alternatives to the XRP network. I honestly do not trust a centralized crypto that was founded by the Mt Gox founder, Jed McCaleb. Less than 40% of the supply of XRP is released. But if you invested in XRP, congratulations because you made probably one of the best investments over the past year.
Thanks for your thoughts. The transaction fees are negligible and only there to protect against spam attacks. I also have faith Ripple can scale easily in the event that they need to. I will say the opposite of you - that's not to shill Ripple, but rather to look beyond what is now into what could be. Furthermore, often tech is not the deciding factor of success and this is not true in only cryptocurrencies. New generations of technology will always outperform the old, but it is often difficult to replace them in terms of adoption. Not to start any fights, but I think the fact that Apple is the largest, non-state owned company in the world is a perfect example of why tech is not as important as everyone thinks it is.
P.S: I don't know much about Raiblocks yet, so am just taking what you say at face-value.
I thought McCaleb left for Stellar Lumens and didn't he also sell of Mt Gox to Karpelès and he was the one that killed it?
I thought Stellar Lumens was suppose to be a better ripple and any chance you will be looking into that or maybe a video that compares the two?
Hey I've recently moved to steemit because you promoted your page on YouTube. Thanks for doing that I'm quite liking this platform. From what is seems though you can place loads of money in steam, power up then earn interest in steam on that. If you did a video on that as an investment strategy that would be great-as an idea I'm sure you have loads though. Thanks for the vid :D
I plan on covering Steem in detail for a future video. I'm still working on learning the ins and outs of the ecosystem myself so until I work it all out, going to hold off. But I like what I see and it's a cryptocurrency with a real use case - I love those.
I invested last night took profits @10% and got of that train. No need to stress about dumps. Great content! Check my page out if you like art!
Nice, that must take some discipline not to try and ride the wave.
Always good to take profits when an investment becomes uncomfortably high like this one.
Legendary!
Ripple was less than $0.10 when I saw it first time and I didn't buy it...I still won't buy it because I'm just not interested in the company.
THere are better alternatives to Ripple with much faster transaction proccess. Why don't bank use Bitshares for example to implement the same operations? Bitshares, ,per their website, process 60,000 tps vs. ripple 1,500 tps.
In Ripple, only institutions can become a "validator" (processor of transactions in Ripple network). Every server processes every transaction according to the same deterministic, known rules.
However, in Bitshares (BTS) ANYONE can supposedly become a validator ("witness"). The stakeholders (i.e. BTS holders) can elect any number of witnesses to generate blocks. Each account is allowed one vote per share per witness. To me BTS does the same things as Ripple but faster and in a more decentralized and democratic way (I know this is not an issue with some people but I rather not go on the same path as current financial system just with some shiny tech names in it).
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ka82/what-s-the-difference-between-ripple-closed-permissioned-blockchain-vs-bitshares-open-permissionless-blockchain
What's your opinion on Bitshares?
Also what I noticed about the current hype, is that Stellar Lumen (which is similar to Ripple and both initiated by Jeb McCaleb) also had the same run at the same time!
Hello Crypto Investor,
I registered on steemit to write this comment and really hope you will reply to it. I like your rational style and even bought the book you recommend (cryptoassets). I'm also a long time investor and think you're the best source to get valid information.
Therefore I'm really interested in you current portfolio. Not to copy it (which would actually be good for you), but to take it into considerations for my own portfolio.
It also helps to interpret your thoughts/videos better.
Would you share you current portfolio with your audience?
Kind regards, Dan
Dan,
Thanks for signing up to Steemit and leaving a comment here. I've thought of publicly sharing my portfolio, but I'm going to hold off for now. It'd likely do more damage than good because I've already seen people blindly follow my recommendations even with tons of warning. In the future, I might have a premium research service in the future where I will provide such information, but now going to put it on hold.
Hello @CI,
I, too, am interested to see a little about your portfolio. Not dollars, but cryptos and percentages of allocation. All for the same reasons that Dan mentioned.
Privacy aside, I understand your concern about blind followers. While I respect your integrity for that feeling, the sad truth is that you can't stop the dumb money from being dumb and you have only a small ethical responsibility for trying.
My opinions tend to be pretty harsh and critical, but I recommend your content to people without hesitation because of your style. You're not trying to sell anything to anyone and just presenting well reasoned information and opinion for consideration.
I have a pretty hard and fast rule against paying for premium investment content, but I may make an exception if you start a premium service or patreon.
Regards,
Rick
Thank you for the video...one of my favourites. I feel like the banks will be more incentivized to make crypto regulated so they can participate. The front page of ripple's website says it all - with basically all the big banks logos on it. I wonder if some of them will jump at buying this private company...although they may worry about the fact that the token is subject to such price pumps (from a regulatory point of view)
Same phenomena with stellar. I tend to like stellar more, for a simple reason that ripple feels to me like a corporate.
Stellar is Ripple the way it should be. I don't own any at the moment, but I absolutely love the project. It also tends to go up and down in smaller proportions along with Ripple, so that's something to remember for day or swing trading.
Yep, I just noticed they follow same patern.
In my experience, it moves with Bitcoin a lot, while Ripple is often a safe anti-Bitcoin haven, so one could say it's a perfect compromise - we're all looking for exactly that at this time
When exactly is the Ripple released from escrow? At the beginning of the month?
Yes - the first day: https://ripple.com/insights/ripple-escrows-55-billion-xrp-for-supply-predictability/
When I bought XRP, I was expecting it to get here months ago. Since Ripple is the dark side gross-feeling redheaded stepchild of crypto, it makes sense it took this long just to get to $2 given the news involved with the company combined with the wave of wakening of fiat institutional thinkers.
I was in Ripple in early October because it seemed to make sense, but nobody else was so I left... sigh - I'm only doing this with household money. So I joined again these last days but never stayed overnight, and then I started to have trouble selling, exchange was down at times - too many people.
So I made way more profit than expected this week and decided to get out and look for something more stable. I see it going way higher still but this kind of volatility is not what I'm looking for.
Your point about the slow wakening of institutional thinkers (as well as the general populace) is rather valid.
One thing I've learned is that just buying and holding the top 10 is the smartest move, plus buying more at the dips.
This seems to be a good time to enter re-enter the top coins, though I don't see why I should be in three or so coins that always go up and down in parallel. But btc and eth, certainly. Im aiming to make about 10% per week next year trading, and be steady about it. To do that, you need coins that are slowly rising or falling, just not too much, and if hysterical action takes place somewhere else to draw the attention of thrill seekers, I wish them luck as that may profit the overall coin market.
I really like your content, especially that you've chosen to do a video about Ripple this time :-)
Keep up the good work!
PS: If you're trading on HitBTC, please read my post on the issues it's currently facing:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@xoorl/hitbtc-is-struggling-with-multiple-issues-and-signs-of-fraud
Thanks xoorl!
How come know one talks about the coins that get burned with Ripple every time their is a transaction?
Plus currently a Ripple wallet requires 25 XRP of "reserve" that cannot be touched. So each wallet you open up, you get $50 USD worth of XRP locked up and essentially lost.
How would a further increase of XRP affect BTC? Do you think there would be a negative correlation?
mmm...Any idea how one can go ahead and invest in Ripple Inc ? Not the Ripple Token
It's a privately owned company but no one is discounting that an IPO could happen in the future.
I think that right now is a good time to invest in alt coins due to the way Bitcoin is level in price. In this market with all the hype when the main crypto that everyone knows about stagnates investors take their money and start looking at other options to make some gains, before running back to the relatively safe bet of Bitcoin. I feel like this is why Ethereum and Litecoin shot up after Bitcoin delayed by about a week, especially since those are the ones listed on Coinbase which is what everyone new to the crypto market starts out with. What do you think about keeping Ripple until the next Bitcoin pump?
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STOPI'm very interested to hear your take on the differences between Ripple's consensus algorithm and other cryptocurrencies.
Thanks for your videos!
I just left the Ripple race because I repeatedly couldn't sell at the price I would have wanted to, the exchange was unable to serve my requests... for me, that's a warning signal. It literally froze for half a hour.
I mean, I hate it when I'm unable to act. I'm also not into tis to ride a lucky train, but to make a certain percentage every week continuously...
So this is not my kind of scenario. I bought some Bitcoin at a very low rate and some Lumen instead, for a third of my capital - staying in fiat with the rest, see how it'll work out.
I actually didn't know a lot of the tokens were locked in escrow. I was actually really surprised how much it moved at first consider the outstanding number of coins issued. I think Ripple will probably rise right now. However, it should come down sometime in the near future.
What are your thoughts on BTC? It looks like it might retest the lows from last week.
We're seeing the price hit the 50 period moving average on the daily chart as you mentioned, just as it did when it initially "crashed". I was preparing to be less bullish on bitcoin if it ever tested this limit again but given that there was a reasoning for this, I might be holding onto it a bit more to see price action.
Great overview, as usual. Thanks for your time and effort put into this.
The only feeling I have about this is that somebody is going to buy a lot of bitcoin using these Ripple gains very soon. With BTC going down, there is no better time. I have my stops chasing the price so that I don't wake up one morning to find myself late to the party.
That is exactly what I am doing right now. I suspected many people would start to buy tons of ripple by the end of the year due of the media hype, speculation for ripple to appear on GDAX and so on. I am selling them and buying more BTC.
Agree. If Ripple pumps again, a simple TA is telling me that the next targets are 3.25$, 3.55$, or 4.05$ depending on how exuberant the final run-up will be. That's where I would sell without thinking about any stop-losses.
Your take on Ripple is a very grounded view. Many of your points are the very reasons that make me wary of investing into Ripple. If the momentum gives way, it scares me to think what the pull back/dip might be like if I had a stake. Given the innate volatility of the cryptocurrency market, it will definitely be interesting to see how things play out with Ripple's meteoric rise.
Who cares about decentralization, who cares about technology. Everything is just money grab.
It is for now but the foundational principles for listings on markets and their actual value to which they bring to society tends to kick in sooner or later (no one knows when). Take a look at the dot com bubble.
Great article, I'll try to watch the video later when I get the chance. I recently subscribed on YT and I really like the format of your content. I also learned about steemit from your videos.
Keep up the good work!
Nice video. I am resisting FOMOing on this ripple. There will be another bandwagon to join before too long.
From what I've read they release 1 billion XRP at the beginning of the month every month for the next 54 months.
I feel like a lot people are putting crypto currencies against each other, like will ripple be the new bitcoin. I would say that we will end up with many different ones that each have their field of use. Like Ripple for banks, Bitcoin as gold,and Verge or anonymity. Do you too see this as the future or crypto?
Off topic question: As Im learning technical analysis I would like to confirm all the patterns and strategies I pick up on YT/blogs. Can you recommend a program or platform that lets you do that? Eg if I wanted to confirm that an RSI<30 is usually followed by a price increase, I could define this in python and the have all the instances listed where the price increase happened. I just wonder if there is a tool that doesn't require me to go that deep into programming but still lets me test half-way complex hypothesis.
Cheers
Nothing is guaranteed, everything is a risk. Markets are ultimately based off of human behavior and this one just tends to be one that's based off of lots of irrational human behavior that NO technical analysis of charts will you what will happen. E.g. look at the RSI for ripple, bitcoin on the weekly and any kind of pumps and dumps that occur. They never follow traditional trading advice. Not to say that these are useless strategies but in certain times like this, there is no way to predict anything using indicators. Good luck and stay safe!
Beware, Ripple XRP is a centralized, pre-mined, inflationary coin run by a single company, the Ripple Labs. I do not believe this is sustainable and I even do not regard Ripple as a true crypto currency.
The price increase is fueled by fomo and hope that SOMEONE will use xrp on ripple net. But people don't realised, that ripple is compatible with any currency, and to my knowledge most of ripples partners are using their technology but not their currency.
Very interesting analysis on ripple. Why do a lot of people think that ripple will become the legitimate adopted coin in the future?
This question can be as general as why a lot of people think any coin will become the legitimate adopted coin in the future. There is solid potential for many coins to be but in combination with irrational exuberance as he said, this is the result.
Current dip in most other coins is related to the XRP pump?
Yes, much like how other altcoins plummeted when bitcoin was having its tremendously successful bull run and bitcoin going down when altcoins were rallying. This is nothing but FOMO investing. Be careful.
hey man, can stellar ever surpass ripple? thanks
Thank you for your quality content! A gem among many useless "content creators".
Did you ever though of publishing your videos on d.tube? Furthermore, can you make a dedicated video about steem and the eco system around it (including things like d.tube)?
How is ripple distributed then if 1 billion gets released every month?
Cryptocurrencies in general is nothing but a lottery at this point. One can use logical reasoning to predict a steady overall growth in many of these currencies but no one can use that to any degree to explain when, where and to what degree irrational exuberance will take place. E.g. Bitcoin
Great post! I bought in to ripple back at .19 and sold today. I rode the train long enough for now. I'm not a huge fan of decentralized coins but I do see the use case and attractiveness some coins like ripple and stellar have for institutions. So I may invest some into stellar or wait for a ripple dip before getting back in. But with the price of bitcoin dropping near 12k again it might be time to invest some back in to the father of all crypto and HODL!
Around 1:20 you show Coinmarketcap valuations factoring in the total supply. I'd be grateful to know how you get that screen on coinmarketcap? Great content and analysis by the way...
Click on the coins tab and there will be an option for that. Hope this helps :)
Ah yes, got it, thanks! https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/views/market-cap-by-total-supply/
I totally agree that Ripple is overextended, as are most other currencies. Ripple does have strong points, starting with speed and cost of transaction processing. The fact that supply is expanded each month may become irrelevant as market capitalization grows continually with wider use. The primary negative I see with XRP is centralized mining, and question whether this is scalable with extensive volume in the long term. Open ledgers with other currencies will always present a scaling problem in the long term, and will need an answer.
Thank you for your continued commentary and perspective.
How to invest in Ripple company directly?
It's a private company.
@cryptovestor - "If I had the option, I'd much prefer investing in Ripple the company than Ripple the cryptocurrency. Why? Because I see higher value in the network the company is building than the token itself. Given the company is unfortunately private, this is not an option. I will personally stay away from the Ripple token at these levels."
Thanks for this great video. Looking forward to the full analysis of Ripple!
I feel the same way about Ripple, it's overvalued and will not invest in it right now. Thanks!
This is what I replied in your previous post, that people are conflating the cryptos with the value of the companies using the technologies. If the company wanted to, they could start a new Blockchain and call it Ripple2, identical to Ripple in technology, but keeping the crypto internal to the banks.
I've just been following the money. Bitcoin lost 25 billion in market cap Since Noon 29Dec2017. Ripple has gained 40 billion in 2-3 days.
With Coinbase adding Ripple to their trading platform on 8Jan2018, and Coinbase adding an estimated 100,000 users daily, I see nothing but a surge in prices for Ripple, and a potential market capitalization takeover from Bitcoin in the upcoming year. Especially with Bitcoin slowly finding its price lower and lower, people will move their money towards Ripple.
Thank you for the video and bringing some insight and sense to the ripple rush!
Can you do an analysis on Substratum? Love your videos and articles.
how can I invest in the Ripple Company? THank you Cryptovestor!!