There can be some great value in betting Kentucky Derby futures if you are paying attention. Bolt D'oro is the favorite on several popular betting sites, but is he a deserving favorite?
Right off the bat, you have to like the pedigree (Sired by Medaglia D'oro and out of Globe Trot by AP Indy). His career started well with three straight wins, including the Grade 1s FrontRunner Stakes and Futurity. However, he failed to deliver as the odds-on favorite at the Juvenile and finished 3rd. Yes, you can blame a bobbled start, but that's not why I'm fading this colt on the first Saturday in May.
I think trainer Mark Ruis is in over his head. He has never won a triple crown race, and Bolt D'oro is actually his first grade 1 winner. Not only that, he's never had a horse earn $300k+ lifetime earnings. He might prove me wrong and do all this for the first time, but if he beats me it won't be at the current 5:1 price.
In fact, it would be pretty tough for me to bet any horse this early at that price. So much can go wrong between now and then. Just look at Mohaymen and Syndergaard. Each of them would have been at similar odds month before the run for the roses and never panned out. So if you are looking to make a futures play, I'd find a price pick that is a good value.
Here are some longer shot plays at good value:
Tap Daddy (50:1)
-Scat Daddy - Easy Tap by Tapit
-Asmussen/Leparoux
the case for him: throw out the first start as a learning experience. two wins against lesser competition. finished 3rd in a G-3 but was bumped late and went 6 wide on the turn and still only lost by a neck/nose.
Regulate (60:1)
-Quality Road - Modulate by Mizzen Mast
-Baffert/Talamo
the case for him: only made one start, so there is a chance he will improve second time out. Getting in early and cheap on a Baffert trained horse.
Nero (40:1)
-Pioneer of the Nile - Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
-Baffert/Garcia
the case for him: same as above with one start and Baffert trained. Pioneer of the Nile always gets my attention when looking for success in a 3 year old. However, not as strong pedigree on the dam side.
Mask (30:1)
-Tapit - Hidden Expression by Yonaguska
-Brown/Castellano
the case for him: gotta throw in one Tapit colt, right? broke his maiden first time out. Chad Brown proved in 2017 he can do it on dirt in the big races and Castellano has looked better than ever recently.
Who do you all like as a futures value play?
Mask is now 15:2 after a win over the weekend. might be too late to grab value.
Nero won his next start after this post.