Earthquake Activity:
In the last three days we have seen ABOVE AVERAGE seismic activity across the world, with a total of 15 earthquakes at or above M5.0, and one M6.1 quake that struck Taiwan.
A total of 8 DEEP earthquakes have been recorded the past three days, which is a decrease since the last update, but still is ABOVE AVERAGE.
Swarms: Major swarms continue in the Gulf of Alaska, southern Mexico, and New Zealand. Small swarms continue in central and southern California, especially south of Los Angeles, down through the Anza Gap to Salton Sea, as was forecasted. The entire west coast (over 900 miles) of California, all along the San Andreas fault is in flux with many small quakes happening today after yesterday’s lull.
· So far, we have seen a total of 797 aftershocks from the M8.0 [M7.9] earthquake that struck off the coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska, on January 20th. The numbers of aftershocks have risen significantly over the last three days. This is now more than 110 aftershocks per day on average. The highest magnitude the past three days has been M4.9. This on-going swarm will continue pushing seismic pressure down the west coast of Canada and the U.S. for as long as these aftershocks continue at these magnitudes and this frequency.
· A new swarm of micro-quakes in still occurring at Mount Saint Helens, in Washington, as was forecasted. Mt. Rainier has also had a few quakes over the past few days, as expected and forecasted. Magnitudes have remained low.
· Over the past three days, 45 quakes have struck in and off the coast of southern Mexico, reaching a high of 4.5. This is a decrease in numbers of quakes since the last update.
· There have been a total of 123 quakes in and around New Zealand in the past 48 hours. The highest magnitude has been a M6.0 quake, striking many miles southeast of New Zealand, on the plate boundary. This is a nearly 50% increase in the numbers of quakes since the last update.
Pacific Northwest Slow-Slip Event Update:
The slow-slip event in the Pacific Northwest continues now for over one year – the longest ever in the region since scientists began tracking such events. The clusters of tremors have nearly disappeared, and what we do see is sporadic tremors here and there, with the largest number around Olympia, Washington. The numbers of tremors have substantially decreased over the past two weeks. When the tremors stop for 48-72 hours, then the WARNING will be issued for a potential M8.4-9.1 mega-quake to occur. This may be the largest earthquake to strike anywhere in the U.S. in the last 300+ years or more! It will likely be very large and destructive. The area is many years overdue for a large earthquake to strike. Time will tell.
While I believe the highest likelihood for a large quake is within a few days after the tremors stop, it is possible a large quake could strike before there is an expected lull. So, have an earthquake plan, your gear on hand, and know what to do if you are living on the west coast, especially in the warned zones. You can monitor these on-going tremors in real time here: http://tunk.ess.washington.edu/REALTIME/
A slow-slip event is also occurring in southern California, on the Anza Gap, along the southern San Andreas fault, down through Salton Sea. The swarm here has increased significantly in the last two days, as was forecasted. Almost all of the west coast of the U.S. is now affected by these two slow-slip events, and is primed for a major quake.
Yellowstone Status:
The Yellowstone region remains active. Magnitudes in the past three days have remained below M2.5.
· A WARNING has been issued for the next 3 days for a potential M4.7-5.4 quake to strike the west coast of California, from San Francisco Bay south to Santa Barbara and north Los Angeles. We may see more than one strike in this magnitude range. There is a lesser possibility we could also see a strike to the south of this line, from Los Angeles down to Salton Sea.
· A WARNING is in place for the next 3 days for a M6.4-7.4 earthquake to strike in central Iran. At this magnitude range, there will be extensive structural damage, injuries, and deaths in populated areas.
· A WARNING has been issued for central Chile in Bio Bio province, south of Santiago, for a potential M6.4-7.4 quake to strike in the next 3 days. At this magnitude range, there will be moderate to major structural damage, injuries, and possible deaths.
· An extended WATCH is now in place for the next 60 days for the eastern Caribbean, including Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for a potential M6.4-7.4 (revised upward) quake. This is a long-range forecast, and with a time frame that is not typical for my forecasts.
· A continuous WATCH remains in place for the Pacific Northwest, along and west of Highway 5, including the cities of Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Salem, Eugene, Grants Pass, Medford, as far south as Redding, CA, especially along the coast. This is an on-going slow-slip event, and when it eventually quiets down, we will watch for a potential catastrophic quake in the M8.4-9.1 range to occur, most likely off the coast. An earthquake striking off-shore in this forecasted magnitude range will cause a tsunami, which will have as much or more effect than the devastating damage of the quake itself.