QFL Trade Opportunity - 1.30.2018 - BTCUSD - Analysis

in #qfl7 years ago (edited)

Disclaimer: This is not advice, this is just information that can be consumed and used however you may wish - but it is not advice or guidance.

Results:

  • Status of trade: blue = safe and green = safest.

Chart:

  • Base 1: $9,947.47
  • Base 2: $9,019.85

Previous data (analyzing the chart for the past 2 months) shows me:

  • 23.51% average/median crack
  • 50% average/median crack to bounce
  • these are for similar base cracks (10% drop 20% bounce)

Buy Orders:

I am going to be slightly less specific on this one and say a few general statements:

  • Make sure you layer in
  • I typically recommend buying during a panic sale which typically (my observation only) occurs 10-12% below the price supported base
  • So 10-12% below the "base 1" within the blue buy zone - go with some size (maybe a low percentage of your stack 0-30%)
  • Go in the most size 10-12% below the "base 2" within the green buy zone (put the rest of your stack in layers up to 70% of your remaining trade)

Sell Orders:

  • Try to sell/participate in every bounce (sell 30% of whatever you bought below that selling point/bounce)

  • If you plan on holding them then anywhere you sell for profit is good

  • Also, I wanted to reference the "Last Cracked Base" principle which is good to know about when trading below such a massive base especially in a bear market. The post describes it well but I will give it a shot. Basically, if the crack exceeds the average typical crack, then you want to try and sell on the next bounce close to where the closest base was cracked. I am going to steal a screenshot from the post (I will give credit though):

  • As you can see, the price did not return back to the base and kept down, but he was able to sell/predict that the first bounce would go up to the lowest most recent base-crack. This is a good way to get out of a trade that is "getting away from you"

The post describing this principle is here: https://quickfingers.io/threads/the-last-cracked-base-principle.246/