Yes, we still have much to play out before this becomes a straight forward pay to play game.
There is still ~50m HP that we don't know who owns here in the dead whale accounts.
I'm giving odds on some of that being Ned.
Binance opening withdrawals will be big.
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The long term value of the coins is simply the amount of money people are willing to risk to buy influence. The Hardfork doubled the pool of coins, but did not double the desire; So, my long term hope is not too optimistic.
Your post brings up a good question though: Which gives off a worse stench. A living or a dead whale?