please explain me why you think the support is tested 4 times at the same price... why is the downward trend line tested 3 times and then it broke upward including the 50-day moving average...
luck. in other cases it doesn't so that. google post-hoc argument. in fact let me do it for you
Because there is a psychological barrier that says that this specific stock or etf is NOT worth less that this exact price, so it bounces up. It's just the market dictating that to all.
All we are saying is that because A, B and C occured MAYBE D will occur as well... again.. its a probability of happening and is based on observations made, doesn't mean it is a rule of nature. And it is very different to state something that has occured in the past and deduce something from it than observing something and ANTICIPATING that it could likely occur again and so positioning onself in entering that trade while managing the risk (stop orders). It's that simple.
having a rough idea of what an asset may be worth is something that could come from a number of factors, but that has very little to do with actual technical analysis... technical analysis is silly, but may work in some cases solely due to how many other people also think it may work...